MLB Best Bets Today June 9
A big night on the diamond starts at 6:35 p.m. ET and runs deep into the night with what could be another Home Run Derby in Las Vegas between the Brewers and the Athletics. Sportsbooks have mildly adjusted the total up to 13 after yesterday’s 11 and 11.5 were no match for either team in the 15-14 finish. That’s just one of 15 games on the docket, but arguably the most exciting one by a large margin.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our new MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for June 9:
Red Sox vs. Rays Prediction
Pick: Rays -101
The Rays were good to us yesterday, even though Connelly Early didn’t really regress as expected, though he did walk four and only recorded 14 outs, so he was close to cracking. They were good to us because they held Boston to just one run with Ian Seymour and the rest of the bullpen.
Today, they’ll turn to Nick Martinez, who looks like another win for the Rays front office. The veteran right-hander does show some tough times ahead in his peripheral metrics with a 2.29 ERA, 4.52 xERA, and a 3.66 FIP over his 70.2 innings of work, but I’d look for that to happen on the road as opposed to at home in the great pitcher’s park that is The Trop. He’s a guy who just knows how to pitch and has always done a good job of neutralizing the platoon advantage by leveraging his changeup.
The Red Sox are riding a .329 BABIP right now for their performance against righties, as they only have a .317 OBP because they’re not drawing many walks. They’re a league average offense in that split over the last 14 days, but couldn’t muster any runs off the righties that they faced yesterday out of the Rays bullpen.
Tampa Bay has a tough assignment today with lefty Payton Tolle on the hill. He checks in with a 2.28 ERA, 2.32 xERA, and a 2.66 FIP in 47.1 innings of work. Tolle has a .252 BABIP against, so that’s one area to keep an eye on. He also has just a 5.0% HR/FB%, which is why his xFIP is over a run higher than his other metrics at 3.67. His peripherals all look solid, but these close, low-scoring games are the ones that the Rays are able to win.
Also, the Red Sox are a below average lineup against changeups this season with -3.0 batting runs, which ranks 23rd. Martinez gets a reset with an extra day of rest in between this start and his last one, in which he allowed one-third of his 18 runs for the season. I think he bounces back and the Rays win another tight one.
Braves vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: White Sox +130
Grant Holmes gets the call here for the Braves and Brandon Eisert will open for Erick Fedde as the White Sox look to follow up an off day with a win. Eisert has been a valuable arm thus far with just five runs allowed on 12 hits in his 14 innings of work. He’s struck out 15 and walked five over his two starts and 11 relief appearances. He’s maxed out at eight batters faced and two innings, so we’ll see how far Will Venable tries to push him today.
Fedde is a scarier proposition to say the least, as he has a 4.94 ERA with a 4.51 xERA and a 6.11 FIP over 58.1 innings of work. He’s had a couple of good efforts recently, allowing two runs on six hits in his last nine innings. I can’t say a ton of positive things about Fedde, but with yesterday’s off day, perhaps the White Sox don’t have to use him for too long in a bulk role or can use some other leverage guys early to try and mount a lead and give him some margin for error.
This is more of a fade of Holmes, who has a 3.86 ERA with a 4.49 xERA and a 5.11 FIP over his 63 innings of work. His .256 BABIP and 83.3% LOB% are both areas of obvious regression, especially when you consider that he only has a 21.2% K%, down from 25% last season, and has allowed a 46.2% Hard Hit% and a 10.3% Barrel%. He ranks in the bottom 10% in Hard Hit% and bottom 19% in Barrel% per Statcast and also ranks in the 42nd percentile in K%, which is why I’m looking for that LOB% drop-off.
It should also be noted that Holmes has had his two lowest starts by four-seam fastball velocity over his last three outings. Over those three starts, he’s allowed a 55.8% Hard Hit% and an 18.6% Barrel% with an average launch angle of 15.4 degrees and average exit velo around 95 mph. He looks like a guy who is pitching through something right now and the White Sox are third in wOBA over the last 14 days against RHP.
The White Sox also have a top-10 bullpen by ERA over the last 14 days and the same xERA as the Braves, so this plus-money price looks like a strong value play.
Brewers vs. Athletics Prediction
Pick: Over 13 (-105)
Pretty simple handicap here. There were 35 strikeouts in yesterday’s game and the teams still combined for 29 total runs. There were a total of 11 HR hit and it’s going to be just as hot with a helping breeze at Las Vegas Ballpark again tonight. Jeffrey Springs and Kyle Harrison are two pretty good starting pitchers and they allowed 13 runs on 16 hits in 7.1 innings yesterday.
Southpaw Robert Gasser is a fringy MLB pitcher and this looks like a bad spot for J.T. Ginn, whose .226 BABIP and 81.3% LOB% are going to regress, plus he’s got a 2.74 ERA with a xERA that is over a run higher at 3.76 and a FIP of 4.08 because of his walk problems.
This total has been adjusted up a bit, but probably not nearly enough.
