MLB Bullpen Betting Systems Update:
This week’s MLB Bullpen Systems update is a rather boring one, as our easiest system was just about breakeven over the last seven days and outside of a few positives and a couple negatives, the rest of the systems sort of followed suit. As usual, however, I have a few different bullpen-related subject matters that I’d like to discuss with all my loyal readers, as some interesting things are happening throughout baseball. Hope you enjoy the update.
The past week was another somewhat difficult one for MLB bullpens in general, as there seems to be a pick up in late inning scoring of late, particularly since we turned the calendar to June. To me, this makes it even more imperative that we are trying to get behind the teams with the better, or perhaps more reliable bullpens. I will share some thoughts I have on better vs. reliable shortly, but for now, understand that over Steve Makinen bullpen power ratings dropped by 41 points last week, or an average of about 1.3 points per team. This is somewhat unusual, but probably greatly impacted by the heat we experienced at many ballparks across the country over the last seven days. As you’ll see below, we had two teams’ bullpen ratings drop by double-digits since last Monday, and five drop by seven points or more. On the contrary, we saw just one team rise by more than four points.
The highlights from last week’s bullpen systems were our CORRELATION angles, and I’ve detailed CORELATION SYSTEM #2 quite often this season for its reliability. If you’re not already, you should familiarize yourself with this angle, which suggests that good bullpens aren’t all that valuable when the starting pitcher is poor. They simply can’t make up for the large deficits they inherit. Fading such teams has been a bankroll builder in 2026 as they are -34.71 units in the hole after going 1-6 for -6.85 units last week alone. Our other two fade correlation angles are also following their usual tendencies.
Last week, I shared that I had a feeling in my own wagering that certain lined teams were doing well. I felt like I was really getting a lot out of the smaller favorites I was betting on with better bullpens. When I looked back, sure enough, smaller favorites in the -111 to -126 range that had a Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating edge were 113-64 for +36.7 units this season!!! That was good for +20.7% ROI. Well, upon a few requests from readers, I was asked to add these teams to the daily VSiN Analytics Reports. We will be doing that, and it will start on Tuesday. If you’re wondering for Monday evening, only the Athletics qualified as of this writing.
The last thing I wanted to discuss for this week’s update is the subject of volatility in bullpen performance, as the Dodgers’ recent bullpen struggles after a nearly unhittable stretch prior raised some concerns among readers. In fact, I received a specific question as to what makes for a better bullpen, one that can have lengthy runs of dominance but can be plagued by struggles, or one that might not have quite the dominant stretches, but is more consistent in its performance level throughout a season. Well, as a bettor, I tend to prefer consistency in anything I’m doing, so I’d opt for the latter, but if you are a bettor who likes to up your investment when hot and drop them when down, I would suggest maybe looking at my hot & not lists each week or following the team’s game logs closely for trends in performance level. It can be a dangerous thing, though, as demonstrated by the Dodgers recently. If you recall, from May 12 to May 24, LA’s bullpen threw 38 scoreless innings in a row. They reached a BP Rating of 40 on my scale. However, since then, in 53-2/3 innings, their bullpen ERA is 7.21 and their WHIP is 1.64. Their SM BP Rating has dropped to 20. Incidentally, LA is still 12-7 in that span, so it’s not a total loss.
The Dodgers recent bullpen struggles did give me an idea to share the metrics for the most consistent to least consistent bullpens so far in 2026. Here is a ranking of the league’s 30 teams in terms of the difference between their HIGH rating and LOW rating. The assumption is that the lesser the movement, the more consistent the bullpen has performed:
Team, maximum 2026 SM BPR, minimum 2026 SM BPR, Variance
1. SEATTLE: max 25, min 13, SWING: 12
2. CHICAGO CUBS: max 19, min 6, SWING: 13
2. NY YANKEES: max 19, min 6, SWING: 13
2. PHILADELPHIA: max 14, min 1, SWING: 13
5. ATHLETICS: max 13, min -1, SWING: 14
5. TORONTO: max 17, min 3, SWING: 14
7. MIAMI: max 19, min 4, SWING: 15
7. ST LOUIS: max 2, min -13, SWING: 15
9. BOSTON: max 27, min 10, SWING: 17
9. CLEVELAND: max 23, min 6, SWING: 17
11. WASHINGTON: max -6, min -24, SWING: 18
12. NY METS: max 21, min 2, SWING: 19
13. BALTIMORE: max 10, min -10, SWING: 20
13. MINNESOTA: max 0, min -20, SWING: 20
15. PITTSBURGH: max 15, min -6, SWING: 21
15. TEXAS: max 21, min 0, SWING: 21
17. ARIZONA: max 13, min -9, SWING: 22
17. SAN FRANCISCO: max 15, min -7, SWING: 22
19. ATLANTA: max 30, min 7, SWING: 23
19. DETROIT: max 16, min -7, SWING: 23
21. LA ANGELS: max 6, min -18, SWING: 24
21. SAN DIEGO: max 38, min 14, SWING: 24
23. MILWAUKEE: max 32, min 6, SWING: 26
24. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: max 7, min -20, SWING: 27
25. KANSAS CITY: max 10, min -19, SWING: 29
25. LA DODGERS: max 40, min 11, SWING: 29
27. COLORADO: max 6, min -26, SWING: 32
27. HOUSTON: max 8, min -24, SWING: 32
27. TAMPA BAY: max 25, min -7, SWING: 32
30. CINCINNATI: max 21, min -25, SWING: 46
Without further ado, here are the various system records through the first 2+ months of the 2026 season that we will be tracking every day throughout. Note that on occasion, I will add or delete systems based upon my own logic or regression analysis:
The easiest way to play the bullpen system
For the 2025 regular season, better rated bullpen teams that were not favorites of -190 or higher, or were -190 or higher and had a winning percentage 19% or higher and a starting pitcher edge of at least 20, went 1138-1004 for +0.15 units and a ROI of 0%. For 2026, this easy system is off to a slower start this season, 465-419 in all for -50.26 units, and an ROI of -5.7%. This percentage ROI loss still greatly outperforms the average bettor loss for playing every game.
It’s usually the case that easiest isn’t always best, although the nearly dead even returns on 2,142 games last year validates why I believe bullpens are so fundamental to baseball handicapping. If you consider that all of the lines I use for this analysis average out to about an 15% average loss per game, this easiest system is still providing users with an advantage of over 9%. That said, I still prefer discernment in my baseball wagering to provide for even bigger edges. This is one of the main reasons we produce such a multi-faceted Analytics Report each day. Part of that report is the MLB Bullpen Systems you’ll see below. This is where you should start your handicapping routine each day.
These next angles were new to the bullpen analysis around mid-season 2025. I named them CORRELATION systems because they rely 100% on the relationship between the Steve Makinen Ratings of the starting pitcher and team bullpens. Here are the early ‘26 season records of these four angles we are now regularly tracking and will continue to do so into the year:
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 21-21 for –5.89 units (ROI -14%).
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 37-66 for -34.71 units and a ROI of -33.7%!
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the ’25 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, these teams are off to a slow 143-106 start for -10.06 units and a ROI of -4%.
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in ‘25. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For ’26, they are off to a rare positive start, 77-95 for +6.55 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect; however, it did lose -2.97 units last week and is headed in its usual direction.
** IMPORTANCE OF PITCHING SYSTEM, BULLPEN & STARTER **
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and a ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 121-95 for -3.58 units and an ROI of -1.7%.
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The ’26 record so far is 32-15 for -2.05 units.
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 32-18 but for -11.53 units so far.–
Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle has been a lucrative fade system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 19-11 start for -5.53 units, and a ROI of -18.4%.
Better bullpen underdog teams are typically solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 141-168 for -11.15 units. This ROI of -3.6% is still highly advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect…YET
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 122-72 for +36.29 units, an ROI of +18.7%. Upon request, we have begun tracking these on the VSiN Analytics Reports daily.
Worse bullpen teams usually struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 89-109 start for -13.68 units. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the ‘26 results so far show a record of 38-51 for -11.81 units and an ROI -13.3%.
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full ’25 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 72-80 for +2.51 units.
Better bullpen teams are capable of building lengthy winning streaks
In conducting a study of teams with better bullpens on winning streaks in 2023, when looking at teams with better Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings looking to extend three-game winning streaks, I tracked that those teams that went 241-168 for +11.33 units, a respectable ROI of 2.7%. For 2024, better bullpen teams on a 3-game winning streak went 200-187 for -64.18 units (-16.6% ROI). This was a massive one-year swing for this system, and it was removed from the Analytics Report. However, I gave it a chance in 2025, and it recovered nicely, going 259-194 for +23.34 units (ROI 5.2%). It will be on the 2026 Bullpen System Reports once again and is off to a disappointing start of 84-75 for -18.89 units.
Better bullpen teams thwart losing streaks
Better bullpen teams on 3+ game losing streaks have gone 345-258 for +35.06 units over the last three regular seasons. The ’26 results so far show teams qualifying for it with a record of 54-59 for -21.26 units. These are bad numbers but June could hopefully mark a turning point as we saw a 12-4 mark over the last two weeks for +8.44 units.
Again, these simple angles that can be qualified each day by utilizing the MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page on VSiN.com or easily found on the MLB Analytics Report. Keep in mind, the bullpen systems are just one small part of a very in-depth handicapping library available to readers.
These are the current key bullpen stats that have accumulated in the 2026 regular season, followed by my current 2026 Bullpen Power Ratings adjusted by me this week for performance. Along with that, I’ve listed the biggest upward/downward BP ratings teams from last week to this.
Key Bullpen Stats (2026 regular season stats through games of Sunday 6/14)
Top 6 Bullpen ERAs
1. ATLANTA: 2.85
2. SAN DIEGO: 3.12
3. BOSTON: 3.13
4. NY METS: 3.3
5. TEXAS: 3.36
6. NY YANKEES: 3.37
Worst 6 Bullpen ERAs
30. MINNESOTA: 5.22
29. COLORADO: 5.22
28. CINCINNATI: 5.02
27. KANSAS CITY: 4.85
26. ATHLETICS: 4.8
25. HOUSTON: 4.77
Top 6 Bullpen WHIPs
1. ATLANTA: 1.11
2. BOSTON: 1.18
3. NY METS: 1.19
4. SAN DIEGO: 1.21
5. TEXAS: 1.22
6. LA DODGERS: 1.22
Worst 6 Bullpen WHIPs
30. MINNESOTA: 1.55
29. CINCINNATI: 1.55
28. KANSAS CITY: 1.51
27. LA ANGELS: 1.49
26. COLORADO: 1.48
25. SAN FRANCISCO: 1.45
Top 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
1. CLEVELAND: 10.33
2. LA DODGERS: 9.81
3. PHILADELPHIA: 9.77
4. MIAMI: 9.73
5. SAN DIEGO: 9.55
6. MILWAUKEE: 9.32
Worst 6 Bullpen Ks/9 innings
30. WASHINGTON: 7
29. TEXAS: 7.61
28. SAN FRANCISCO: 7.69
27. CHICAGO CUBS: 7.85
26. ARIZONA: 7.93
25. TAMPA BAY: 8.15
Top 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
1. NY METS: 1.02
2. ARIZONA: 1.1
3. HOUSTON: 1.14
4. BALTIMORE: 1.17
5. TORONTO: 1.2
6. ST LOUIS: 1.21
Worst 6 Bullpen Last 7 Games WHIPs
30. MINNESOTA: 1.91
29. PITTSBURGH: 1.88
28. LA DODGERS: 1.87
27. COLORADO: 1.75
26. ATHLETICS: 1.61
25. SEATTLE: 1.57
I have used a manual process of analyzing daily box scores to build my Bullpen Power Ratings. In most cases, the end number is a reflection of the stats listed above, with great consideration also given to overall talent, injuries, and momentum.
Biggest Movers in SM Bullpen Power Ratings since last week Monday (6/8):
Biggest upward movers (PR points)
1. DETROIT: +7 points
2. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: +4
2. LA ANGELS: +4
2. NY YANKEES: +4
5. MIAMI: +3
5. TAMPA BAY: +3
Biggest downward movers (PR points)
1. PITTSBURGH: -13 points
2. SEATTLE: -11
3. PHILADELPHIA: -9
4. MINNESOTA: -8
5. MILWAUKEE: -7
6. LA DODGERS: -6
Steve’s Current Bullpen Ratings/Ranks (as of 6/15)
Rank – Team – Bullpen PR
1. ATLANTA: 33
2. SAN DIEGO: 26
3. BOSTON: 24
4. LA DODGERS: 20
5. NY YANKEES: 19
6. MILWAUKEE: 16
7. NY METS: 16
8. CLEVELAND: 16
9. CHICAGO CUBS: 12
10. TEXAS: 12
11. MIAMI: 11
12. ATHLETICS: 9
13. PHILADELPHIA: 8
14. CHICAGO WHITE SOX: 8
15. TORONTO: 8
16. ARIZONA: 8
17. SEATTLE: 7
18. DETROIT: 7
19. HOUSTON: 1
20. LA ANGELS: 1
21. TAMPA BAY: 0
22. ST LOUIS: -3
23. PITTSBURGH: -9
24. BALTIMORE: -9
25. SAN FRANCISCO: -9
26. KANSAS CITY: -9
27. WASHINGTON: -11
28. MINNESOTA: -23
29. COLORADO: -28
30. CINCINNATI: -31
These are sorted first by bullpen ranking and then by overall team power rating.
