MLB Best Bets Today September 25
We know all 12 playoff teams in Major League Baseball, but we don’t know who will play who and when just yet, as the top three seeds are set in stone in the NL – Brewers, Dodgers, Braves – but the Wild Card picture still needs to be sorted out. We also know that the Rays will be the No. 1 seed in the AL, but the other bye is up for grabs. We also know that Yankees vs. Red Sox will be the 4 vs. 5 series in the AL. Beyond that, a lot is left to be decided. We’ll get a day closer to knowing that today.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats.
Here are the MLB best bets today for September 25:
Yesterday, I wrote about some individual player benchmarks to watch for. Well, PCA did steal his 40th base and Paul Skenes hit 200 strikeouts with eight punchies. We’ve got more things to watch for today.
- Jacob deGrom needs four strikeouts for 200
- Hunter Goodman needs one HR for 40
- Rafael Devers needs three HR for 40; also needs two RBI for 100
- Manny Machado, Max Muncy, Nolan Arenado (homered yesterday) need one HR for 30
- Jordan Walker, Bryce Harper need two HR for 30
- Junior Caminero needs one RBI for 100 (had two yesterday)
- Ben Rice needs three RBI for 100
- Fernando Tatis Jr. needs two SB for 40 (stole two yesterday)
- Jose Ramirez needs three SB for 40 (stole one yesterday)
- Josh Naylor, Elly De La Cruz, Oneil Cruz (stole one yesterday) need one SB for 30
Rays vs. Phillies Prediction
Pick: Cristopher Sanchez (PHI) Under 18.5 Outs Recorded (-107)
Sanchez would be set up to go on regular rest in Game 2 of the Wild Card round after today’s start, but I think we could see an abbreviated start here to give him the chance to refresh a little bit prior to that Wednesday outing.
Sanchez has been hit really hard lately. He allowed a 63.2% Hard Hit% in his last start against the Mets, tying a season-high with 12 hard-hit balls. In his two starts prior to that, he allowed three Barrels in each of them. His velocity and spin rates look fine to me, but I think that the Phillies are not going to push him too hard here. There’s really no upside in doing that. He’s already thrown 200 innings, eclipsed 200 strikeouts, and won’t beat Jacob Misiorowski for the Cy Young. I’m thinking a compact five-and-fly here, or maybe six at best with the pitch count.
Angels vs. Mariners Prediction
Pick: Angels +100
Reid Detmers and Bryce Miller are the slated starters for this game that features two teams just playing out the string. The Angels do have some motivation, though. They have never lost 100 games in a season and have 98 losses heading into tonight’s contest. While not a motivating factor like being a playoff team or something, I can’t imagine the guys in that clubhouse want to be part of history like that.
Detmers, who surpassed 200 strikeouts for the season last time out, is looking to put an exclamation point on what has been a spectacular season. He has a 3.47 ERA with a 3.23 xERA and a 3.05 FIP over 179 innings of work. He’s been able to stay healthy and pitch at a consistently high level. I grant that he might be wearing down a bit, as he just allowed more than three runs in a start for the first time since July 9, but he’s on an extra day of rest here and I think he’d love to hit the offseason on a high note.
Miller has had a bit of a lost season, as he’s posted good numbers with a 3.99 ERA, 3.64 xERA, and a 4.43 FIP, but has been limited to 20 starts and 112.2 innings heading into tonight’s outing. The Mariners were agonizingly close to making it to the World Series last season and now they’re a team that sits 11 games under .500 at the final weekend. They had expectations. The Angels really didn’t, but they do have a clearer direction now with Arte Moreno selling the team and John Mozeliak appointed as the GM.
I’ll take the shot here with Detmers and with an Angels team that should have more to play for.
Diamondbacks vs. Padres Prediction
Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. 1+ SB (+497), 2+ SB (+3600)
Hey, Tatis stole two last night to get halfway closer to 40. Gabriel Moreno has done a good job cutting down runners with a 25% CS%, but I think Tatis wants to try to knock this out quickly if he can. Tatis is 34-for-42 against RHP on the season (just 4-for-9 against LHP) and 15-for-19 in the second half.
