MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, April 11.
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6:40 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
Pirates starter Bailey Falter is highly prone to contact, recording just 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings since joining Pittsburgh in 2023. He has a 4.86 ERA and allows 1.4 home runs per nine innings. On the other side, Reds starter Brady Singer has impressed early, giving up just three earned runs over 12 innings in his first two starts. Both bullpens have matching 3.86 ERAs.
Picks: Reds Run Line -1.5 +140 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Reds Run Line -1.5 -102 and Total 9.1)
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Red Sox starter Sean Newcomb is in a rotation for the first time since 2018 and has allowed 14 hits across 8 2/3 innings in his first two starts. He’s also issuing five walks per nine innings and has a career rate of 4.9. White Sox starter Davis Martin hasn’t fared much better, giving up nine runs (seven earned) in his first two outings. He faces a Boston lineup that ranked sixth in scoring entering Thursday, averaging 5.15 runs per game.
Pick: Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.6)
7:05 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. New York Yankees
The Yankees are averaging an absurd 8.8 runs per game at home—a number likely to regress—while the Giants are putting up five runs per game on the road. Giants starter Robbie Ray has a 4.29 ERA since joining the team, but his 5.50 FIP, 1.9 home runs, and 4.5 walks per nine innings suggest issues. Yankees starter Marcus Stroman posted a 5.31 ERA at home last season, giving up over 1.6 home runs per nine.
Picks: Yankees Run Line -1.5 +180 and Over 8 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -1.5 +127 and Total 9.1)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis has a 2.90 ERA since 2023 despite allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings, with a 4.28 FIP. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano has transitioned well from the NPB, giving up only three runs in his first two starts in the U.S. while averaging just 4.8 strikeouts per nine innings.
Pick: Orioles Moneyline -110 (Greg’s Handicap: Orioles -126)
Atlanta Braves vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Though Rays starter Taj Bradley has allowed six runs in two starts, he’s flashed strikeout potential with 11.5 K/9. Braves starter Bryce Elder has struggled, owning a 6.54 ERA since the start of 2024, along with 1.7 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings. The Braves lineup entered Thursday averaging just 3.1 runs per game.
Picks: Rays Moneyline -110 and Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Rays -138 and Total 8.2)
8:10 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Houston Astros
Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has posted a 3.89 ERA since being called up late last season, but a 4.81 FIP and just 3.9 strikeouts per nine indicate potential regression. Astros starter Ronel Blanco has also benefited from good luck, holding a 3.05 ERA since 2024 began with a 4.10 FIP. After ranking 28th in runs last season, the Angels offense is now top 10—but that may be a small sample fluke.
Pick: Astros Moneyline -138 (Greg’s Handicap: Astros -154)
8:15 PM Eastern
Philadelphia Phillies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Despite his name recognition, Phillies starter Aaron Nola has a 3.99 ERA and allows 1.3 home runs per nine since 2021. Cardinals starter Andre Pallante has a 3.79 ERA since the start of 2024 with 7.1 strikeouts and 3.7 walks per nine. He’ll be tested by a Phillies offense that entered Thursday averaging 5.6 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Over 7.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.2)
10:05 PM Eastern
New York Mets vs. Sacramento Athletics
Mets starter Griffin Canning has seen a slight strikeout rebound this year after a career-worst 6.8 K/9 in 2023. He currently sports a 2.79 ERA and 3.82 FIP with five walks over 9 2/3 innings. Athletics starter JP Sears has a 4.46 ERA with 1.5 home runs per nine since joining Oakland, supported by an offense that ranks fifth in the AL with over 4.3 runs per game.
Picks: Athletics +120 and Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -101 and Total 9.7)
