Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, July 7, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: SEA is 2-9 (-6.75 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+104 at MIA)
Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons, going 37-16 (69.8%, +21.78 units).
— The ROI on this trend is 41.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-103 at MIN)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 244-180 for +24.52 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BAL), BOSTON (-126 at CWS)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 145-117 for -6.79 units and an ROI of -2.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+101 at TB), DETROIT (-205 vs. ATH), BOSTON (-126 at CWS)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as valuable or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 31-28 for -6.54 units (ROI -11.1%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-149 vs. ATL), PHILADELPHIA (-175 at CIN)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 47-86 for -43.25 units and an ROI of -32.5%. Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATLANTA (+124 at PIT), HOUSTON (+101 at WSH), SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. AZ)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 100-126 for +3.74 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, but it has lost over 6 units the last four weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+167 vs. MIL), COLORADO (+228 at LAD)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better-rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%. The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 45-26 for -12.52 units, ROI -17.6%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE GAME 1 (-204 at STL), DETROIT (-205 vs. ATH)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 midseason bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 33-19 but for -13.34 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-286 vs. COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 174-229 for -35.65 units. This ROI of -8.8% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (+101 at TB), ATLANTA (+124 at PIT), HOUSTON (+101 at WSH), CLEVELAND (-103 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+139 at TEX)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 149-99 for +31.25 units, an ROI of +12.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BAL), MIAMI (-125 vs. SEA), BOSTON (-126 at CWS), SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. AZ), TORONTO (-115 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
Fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, teams on two-game winning streaks with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 118-144 start for -20.57 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE (+104 at MIA), PITTSBURGH (-149 vs. ATL), KANSAS CITY (+128 at NYM), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+104 vs. BOS), MINNESOTA (-117 vs. CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 91-91 for +13.3 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-122 vs. NYY), ATHLETICS (+168 at DET)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 494-395 for +41.99 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (-125 vs. SEA), BOSTON (-126 at CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 244-180 for +24.52 units and an ROI of 5.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BAL), BOSTON (-126 at CWS)
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 427-363 but for -85.39 units and an ROI of -10.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (-125 vs. SEA), PITTSBURGH (-149 vs. ATL), NY METS (-155 vs. KC), MINNESOTA (-117 vs. CLE)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 446-399 record for +41.06 units and an ROI of 4.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO CUBS (-115 at BAL), BOSTON (-126 at CWS), KANSAS CITY (+128 at NYM)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2145-2022 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -262.56 units. This represents an ROI of -6.3%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over the last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,172-2,746 (44.2%) for -269.82 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (-175 at CIN), TORONTO (-115 at SF)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 650-545 (54.4%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +17.55 units, for an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-122 vs. NYY), SAN DIEGO (-122 vs. AZ)
Hitting a lot of home runs has carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 390-196 (66.6%) for +55.76 units and an ROI of 9.5%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-125 vs. SEA)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams that hit 3+ home runs themselves but also gave up 3+ home runs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 65-41-5 (61.3%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 35-14 Over streak in the last 49).
System Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-WSH (o/u at 9)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a SU record of 196-234 for +38.06 units and an ROI of 8.9% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+168 at DET)
Big underdogs after heartbreak fall flat
Heavy underdogs of +210 or more who lost their last game by only one run have gone 42-139 SU for -40.02 units (ROI: -22.1%) in the follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (FADE): COLORADO (+228 at LAD)
When these teams are +220 or more, Under the total is 94-58-6 (61.8%) in their next game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-LAD (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in Game 5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 308-319 run (+9.74 units, ROI: 1.6%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (+139 at TEX)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: COLORADO +228 (+20 diff), ATHLETICS +168 (+18), ST LOUIS GAME 2 +113 (+16)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: PITTSBURGH -149 (+22 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOU-WSH OVER 9 (+0.5), LAA-TEX OVER 7 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATH-DET UNDER 8 (-0.7), AZ-SD UNDER 9 (-0.6), CHC-BAL UNDER 9.5 (-0.5), SEA-MIA UNDER 8 (-0.5), COL-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MILWAUKEE (56-33) at (952) ST LOUIS (47-41) (DH Game #1)
Trend: STL is 35-17 (+10.88 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS GAME 1 (+1.5 vs. MIL)
(953) ATLANTA (52-37) at (954) PITTSBURGH (46-45)
Trend: Over the total is 36-22 (+11.80 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-PIT (o/u at 8)
(955) PHILADELPHIA (50-41) at (956) CINCINNATI (41-48)
Trend: Under the total is 7-1-1 when Zack Wheeler faces CIN in his career
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): PHI-CIN (o/u at 9)
Trend: CIN is 11-5 (+10.32 units) as a large underdog of +129 or more with starter Andrew Abbott the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+144 at PHI)
(959) ARIZONA (45-45) at (960) SAN DIEGO (44-46)
Trend: AZ is 14-26 (-8.50 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+101 at SD)
(961) COLORADO (37-55) at (962) LOS ANGELES-NL (60-32)
Trend: Under the total is 26-18-1 (+6.20 units) in LAD home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-LAD (o/u at 9.5)
(963) NEW YORK-AL (50-40) at (964) TAMPA BAY (52-36)
Trend: TB is 29-15 (+18.42 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs. NYY)
(965) ATHLETICS (41-49) at (966) DETROIT (40-50)
Trend: DET is 24-12 (+3.72 units) in Tarik Skubal’s last 36 night game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-205 vs. ATH)
(967) BOSTON (40-48) at (968) CHICAGO-AL (47-42)
Trend: CWS is 28-14 (+16.12 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+104 vs. BOS)
(971) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-55) at (972) TEXAS (45-45)
Trend: TEX is 16-6 (+5.64 units) in its last 22 games as a -144 favorite or higher with starter Jacob deGrom
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-168 vs. LAA)
(975) SEATTLE (47-44) at (976) MIAMI (49-42)
Trend: SEA is 2-9 (-6.75 units) as a road underdog within the line range -108 to +145 with starter Bryan Woo since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (+104 at MIA)
(977) HOUSTON (45-48) at (978) WASHINGTON (47-45)
Trend: OVer the total is 31-13-2 (+16.70 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-WSH (o/u at 9)
(979) KANSAS CITY (37-54) at (980) NEW YORK-NL (38-53)
Trend: KC is 17-28 (-7.24 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+128 at NYM)
Top head-to-head series trends
Series #32: Cleveland at Minnesota, Tue 7/7-Thu 7/9
Trend: Cleveland has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 37-16 (69.8%, +21.78 units).
— The ROI on this trend is 41.1%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-103 at MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money & ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:15 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in a MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, MIAMI, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Match (CONSIDER): ATLANTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, MIAMI, WASHINGTON, NY METS, TORONTO
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): CHC-BAL, COL-LAD
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
ATLANTA
Letdown after series vs. NY METS: 16-22 (42.1%) -12.12 units, ROI: -31.9%
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+124 at PIT)
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