MLB Best Bets Today July 7
It is a traditional Tuesday setup in MLB, except for a doubleheader in St. Louis between the Cardinals and Brewers. The rest of the slate kicks off at 6:35 p.m. ET, with just that day-night double dip providing the only day game at 2:15. It does feature Jacob Misiorowski, though, so it’s probably worth checking out. The extreme heat that we had last week in a lot of places is not really a factor tonight, as more seasonable temperatures are in the forecast.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 7:
Mariners vs. Marlins Prediction
Pick: Under 8 (-114)
Bryan Woo and Max Meyer are the listed hurlers here, as we have two pretty good right-handers on the bump. Woo has been exceptional at home, but the road has definitely caused some issues. He sports a K% that is 10.9% lower on the road and a BABIP that is over 100 points higher. His LOB% is 18.1% lower on the road. He has a 6.38 ERA, but a 4.15 FIP, so he has gotten a bit unlucky with batted balls, giving up 55 hits in 48 innings compared to 28 hits in 51.1 innings at home.
But, loanDepot Park is a bit friendlier of a road venue than most are going to be for Woo and it’s also a dome, in case there’s something going on with his grip or something to that effect. While Statcast grades loanDepot Park as league average with a 100 Park Factor over a 3-year sample, it’s because the park is so good for doubles and triples that it has that grade. It actually has an 86 rating for home runs.
In other words, I think this will be a much better spot for Woo and should give him a little bit more confidence going out on the road. Furthermore, the Marlins just returned from a 10-day, three-city road trip with stops in St. Louis, Colorado, and Sacramento. They did have Monday off, but getting back to work today might leave them a little sluggish.
Meyer had two starts on the road trip, one exceptional one in St. Louis and one okay one in Denver where the defense failed him, as he allowed five runs, but only one was earned over six innings. He struck out five and didn’t walk anybody for the first time this season. Meyer owns a 2.53 ERA with a 3.76 xERA and a 3.45 FIP in his 103 innings of work. The Mariners have a 26.3% K% and just an 88 wRC+ against RHP over the last 14 days.
The Marlins have the best numbers in the league against RHP in that span, but they played in Denver and Sacramento, plus it was very hot in St. Louis. Back at home, I’d expect those numbers to cool. This total should be 7.5 in my opinion, but Woo’s road splits and Miami’s recent offensive returns give us an 8. I think both of those things are overblown in the context of tonight. Both bullpens are extremely fresh as well.
Red Sox vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: Red Sox -126
Young southpaws Payton Tolle and Noah Schultz are the listed starters here, as Schultz makes his second start back at the MLB level after returning from a stay on the IL. His return wasn’t great, as he did strike out seven over 4.1 innings, but also allowed three runs on two hits and four walks, as he needed 87 pitches to get 13 outs.
Schultz posted the lowest fastball spin rate he’s had at the MLB level this season and his spin rate was lagging behind in his final minor league tune-up. He also had his lowest arm angle of the season on the fastball. It was more consistent with his other pitches. Perhaps he was tipping a little bit or just trying to find his release point, but he wasn’t sharp and I’m not sure he’s fully healthy.
The Red Sox have a .248/.346/.478 slash against LHP over the last 14 days, as they’ve only struck out 18.6% of the time with an 11.5% BB%. They have the seventh-most PA in that split in that span, so it’s a fairly decent sample size with a .358 wOBA and a 126 wRC+.
Tolle is coming off of a dud of his own with six runs allowed on seven hits to the Nationals at home. He gave up a couple homers and walked three with five strikeouts. He’s had some ups and downs lately, which is hardly a surprise for a young pitcher, but at least he’s on an extra day of rest here. Also, he still had a 14.5% SwStr% and an 81.3% Z-Contact%, so the stuff quality seemed okay, aside from the Nationals being super aggressive in the zone and it worked out for them.
The White Sox only have a .209/.258/.349 slash against LHP over the last 14 days and a .223/.274/.393 slash against them over the last 30 days. The platoon bats on the bench are not very good hitters and most of the productive bats in the regular lineup are left-handed.
I like the surging Sox here and throughout the week, as some teams will make a big push to move up the standings if they got off to a bad start.
Brewers vs. Cardinals Game 2 Prediction
Pick: Brewers 1st 5 -125
Normally I don’t like to play Game 2 of a doubleheader after Game 1, but this is a unique circumstance in my mind. Robert Gasser has a lot more upside than Hunter Dobbins, especially in this particular matchup.
Gasser was demoted as part of a numbers game, not his performance, as he had a 4.54 ERA with a 3.29 xERA in his 35.2 innings of work. He had 36 strikeouts in that span and held the opposition to a 29.4% Hard Hit% with a 6.9% Barrel%. He deserved a much better fate than the 4.54 ERA and really one bad start in Las Vegas against the A’s damaged his numbers with six runs allowed in just five innings, including four homers, which is why he has the 4.99 FIP. So, I think there’s some hidden value to Gasser right now.
I don’t think there’s any value to Dobbins, who has worked 17.1 innings at the MLB level with a 3.63 ERA, 5.52 xERA and a 4.38 FIP. He’s struck out 19 of the 73 batters he has faced, but he’s only got 44 K in 59.1 innings at the minor league level this season. In his last three minor league starts, he’s allowed 14 runs on 20 hits over 14.2 innings of work. Only eight of the runs are earned, as the defense hasn’t helped at all, but he’s also only struck out 11 of the 70 batters that he’s faced.
As we know, the Brewers run the bases very well and are an extremely dangerous offense when they are able to put balls in play and they should be able to do that against Dobbins. Milwaukee is ninth with a .345 wOBA against RHP over the last 14 days. St. Louis is 17th against LHP in that same span.
Given the Brewers’ heavy reliever workload over the weekend and the presence of Game 1, I’m a bit worried about the leverage guys being available in the nightcap, as managers always want to try and get that first game and assure at least a split.
