MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Wednesday, April 23.
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12:15 PM Eastern
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Atlanta Braves
Both starting pitchers in this game are shaky. Braves starter Bryce Elder owns a 6.68 ERA with 1.8 home runs allowed per nine innings since the start of the 2024 season. Cardinals starter Miles Mikolas has a 7.64 ERA through his four starts this year, managing just 5.6 strikeouts per nine innings. However, he’s backed by a Cardinals lineup that entered Tuesday ranked seventh in the league in runs per game.
Pick: Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2)
1:10 PM Eastern
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Yankees starter Carlos Rodón hasn’t become the ace the team hoped for, posting a 4.34 ERA through five starts with 1.6 home runs and five walks allowed per nine innings. He is, however, on pace for a career-best 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He also carries a 5.48 expected ERA. Benefiting Ortiz is the league’s top bullpen ERA since the 2024 season began.
Pick: Guardians Moneyline +126 (Greg’s Handicap: Guardians -102)
1:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starter Sandy Alcantara hasn’t looked like his usual self, posting a 7.27 ERA with 6.8 strikeouts and 5.2 walks per nine innings over four starts. Reds starter Brady Singer owns a 3.80 ERA and a 3.27 FIP, with more than 10 strikeouts per nine innings and just two home runs allowed over 21 1/3 innings. He’s backed by a Reds lineup that ranks second in the league in road scoring with 5.8 runs per game.
Pick: Reds Moneyline +112 (Greg’s Handicap: Reds -126)
6:45 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Both starters are pitch-to-contact guys. Nationals starter Trevor Williams is averaging just 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings since the start of 2024, but owns a 2.92 ERA and 3.14 FIP over his last 17 starts, with only 0.6 home runs allowed per nine innings. Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano is generating only 3.4 strikeouts per nine but keeps walks low at 2.1 per nine and holds a 3.43 ERA since coming over from Japan.
Pick: Under 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.7)
7:40 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Kansas City Royals
The Rockies’ offense is last in the league in road scoring, averaging just over 1.9 runs per game with a .188 batting average. Starter Germán Márquez has struggled, posting an 8.27 ERA with 6.1 strikeouts and 4.4 walks per nine innings. Royals starter Michael Lorenzen has improved his control from last year, lowering his walk rate from 4.1 to 2.9 per nine innings. His 4.57 ERA is paired with a promising 3.64 FIP.
Pick: Royals Run Line -1.5 +115 (Greg’s Handicap: Royals Run Line -1.5 -112)
7:40 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros
Astros starter Ryan Gusto has been a pleasant surprise, entering his third start of the season after beginning the year in the bullpen. He has a 3.18 ERA with nine strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings across 17 innings. Blue Jays starter Bowden Francis has dominated since the 2024 All-Star break, posting a 2.20 ERA and just over 1.6 walks per nine. Both offenses are struggling—Houston ranks 22nd in runs per game, and Toronto is putting up just 3.1 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Under 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 8.1)
9:38 PM Eastern
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Los Angeles Angels
Former Angels starter Andrew Heaney takes the mound for the Pirates. He’s worked on his home run issues, allowing just one through 25 1/3 innings while putting up a 2.13 ERA through four starts. Heaney brings more swing-and-miss than Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz, who has a 4.52 ERA, 1.2 home runs allowed, and just 3.7 strikeouts per nine innings over two MLB seasons.
Picks: Pirates +130 and Over 8.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicap: Pirates +124 and Total 8.7)
10:05 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Rangers starter Kumar Rocker hasn’t delivered the strikeout totals many expected, generating just 6.9 K/9 with a 6.38 ERA. He now pitches in Sacramento, where offense has been elevated—six of the first nine games there went over the total. A’s starter JP Sears holds a career 4.42 ERA with 1.6 home runs allowed per nine innings.
Pick: Over 9.5 Runs (Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.7)
