Groups G, H and I will all be decided on Friday, Day 16 of the World Cup, and here are the two bets that stand out from the six-game slate. Day 14 was good to me — I hit 4 out of my 6 bets, all posted on X, with Day 15 on VSiN with the new format I’ll be using on these busier days. Give me a follow @alexjblowers and let me know what you’re taking.
New Zealand vs Belgium | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group G | Friday, June 26 | 11PM EST | BC Place | Vancouver
New Zealand (+1600) | Draw (+700) | Belgium (-600)
Over 3.5 Goals (+115) | Under 3.5 Goals (-145)
New Zealand +2.5 (-155) | Belgium -2.5 (+120)
Group G comes to a close Friday evening with all four teams left in with a chance to progress to the knockout phase. The game I’m focused on is between the impressive New Zealand and unimpressive Belgium.
Manager Rudi Garcia has failed to get this talented Belgium attack going. They’ve managed just one goal — an own goal — and haven’t found any rhythm going forward. The most interesting moment from this attack hasn’t even happened on the pitch — Jeremy Doku’s decision to travel to London for the birth of his son Praise sparked an online debate that has overshadowed Belgium’s actual football. He’s back with the squad and is available for this game to give them a much-needed attacking boost after missing the 0-0 with Iran due to a respiratory illness.
New Zealand on the other hand have delivered two highly impressive performances, earning praise for their flair in the final third and aggressive approach against Iran and Egypt. Darren Bazeley’s tactical plan is simple: set up in a compact defensive block, win possession, play the ball long for captain Chris Wood to win in the air and have wingers Elijah Just and Callum McCowatt pounce on the second ball and exploit the chaos it produces.
This tactical plan is bad news for Belgium’s defense, particularly right-back Thomas Meunier. Writing about the Bundesliga 2020-22, I watched him week in, week out commit mistake after mistake for Borussia Dortmund. He’s a talented player but lacks concentration at key moments and is a mistake waiting to happen. He was at fault for Emam Ashour’s opener for Egypt, losing track of him, which gave him too much time and space to bury one in the bottom corner past the outstretched Thibaut Courtois. If New Zealand have done their homework and Wood wins his aerial duels at the rate he managed against Egypt — 10 of 17 — Meunier will be in for a torrid time.
New Zealand aren’t without their own defensive issues, having conceded five goals so far, allowing 33 shots and 5 big chances totaling 3.37 xG — against two attacks that on paper should not come close to the quality and threat of the Red Devils. This is an opportunity for Doku, De Bruyne, Lukaku and Trossard to finally flex their attacking prowess. Pair that with New Zealand’s chaotic frontline and we’re in for goals in this matchup.
The Over 3.5 (+115) is tempting, but it needs four goals, and if four go in here, New Zealand will have almost certainly grabbed one. I’m taking Both Teams To Score Yes at +140 instead: same idea, tidier price, job done.
Pick: Both Teams To Score Yes (+140)
Senegal vs Iraq | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group I | Friday, June 26 | 3PM EST | BMO Field | Toronto
Senegal (-450) | Draw (+600) | Iraq (+1100)
Over 3.5 Goals (+130) | Under 3.5 Goals (-160)
Senegal -1.5 (-155) | Iraq +1.5 (+120)
Friday afternoon Group I comes to a close with Senegal and Iraq fighting to stay in this tournament. Both sit bottom with zero points, and the winner gives themselves a real shot at one of the eight best third-place spots. Senegal are the more likely of the two to advance — The Athletic’s World Cup Bracket Tracker gives them a 64% chance of reaching the knockout phase at time of writing, against Iraq’s 3%.
That comes down to two things we’ve learned from their losses to France and Norway: Senegal can hang, Iraq can’t. Across the two games Senegal scored 3 times from 22 shots and 5 big chances totaling 2.25 xG. They kept France quiet in the first half before being blown away in the second and competed with Norway through the full 90 minutes. Defensively they’ve let themselves down, allowing six goals, 24 shots and 9 big chances totaling 3.99 xG.
Iraq have stuttered in attack, mustering 1 goal from 15 shots and 2 big chances totaling 1.43 xG. They’ve been awful defensively, allowing seven goals, 31 shots and 10 big chances totaling 5.19 xG. Against this Senegal side, I think we’ll see similar numbers.
The Teranga Lions currently carry a -3 goal difference. To confirm progression, they’re going to have to not only beat Iraq but beat them well to improve it. With their front three of Sadio Mané and Ismaïla Sarr out wide, and Nicolas Jackson up top, they have the attacking tools to rack up the goals.
That points to Senegal Team Total Over 2.5 (-110) — the safest bet on the board. They should follow in Norway and France’s steps and put at least three past this Iraq defense, which has allowed a big chance every 18 minutes.
Back Senegal to get the job done comfortably and book their spot in the knockout phase, where a third-place finish most likely sets up a date with England.
Pick: Senegal Team Total Over 2.5 (-110)
