MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Friday, July 17.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Washington Nationals vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Gage Jump has been solid overall, posting a 3.51 ERA and 3.31 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 2.8 walks allowed per nine innings. However, he has struggled at home, where he owns a 6.20 ERA with nearly 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings, compared to a 0.75 ERA without allowing a home run on the road. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli has a 3.83 ERA and 3.26 fielding independent with 10 strikeouts and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings, and he is backed by a lineup that leads the league in scoring with 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -102 and Over 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -108 and Total 10.6
7:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. New York Yankees
Things have not been up to normal standards for Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole this year, as he owns a 4.04 ERA with 1.5 home runs allowed per nine innings and now faces a Dodgers lineup that leads the league in road scoring with more than six runs per game. Dodgers starting pitcher Roki Sasaki has struggled even more, posting a 5.39 ERA with two home runs allowed per nine innings, and his ERA jumps to 6.75 on the road.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline +103
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -115
7:15 PM Eastern
Texas Rangers vs. Atlanta Braves
Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale has been sharp all season, posting a 2.20 ERA with 0.7 home runs allowed and 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings. He is backed by the National League’s best bullpen by ERA. Rangers starting pitcher Cal Quantrill has relied on inducing soft contact this season, recording only 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings while posting a 3.11 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 2.5 walks per nine innings. He also benefits from facing a Braves lineup averaging just 4.7 runs per game at home compared to five runs per game on the road.
Pick: Rangers vs. Braves Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.8
8:05 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago Cubs
The wind is expected to be variable in Chicago on Friday, hovering around five miles per hour, making a total north of 10 appear to be an overcorrection even if it is blowing out. Bailey Ober is posting a career-low 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings and owns a 4.40 ERA this season, but in his first start after returning from the injured list just before the break, he struck out five over five innings while allowing just one run against Cleveland. Cubs starter Colin Rea owns a 4.75 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.4 walks per nine innings, but he gets the benefit of facing a Twins lineup that is hampered by Byron Buxton’s injuries.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline -130 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cubs -144 and Total 9.1
8:10 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals
Padres starting pitcher Michael King could be due for some regression on his 3.42 ERA, as he owns a 4.01 fielding independent with 7.6 strikeouts and 3.6 walks per nine innings. However, he draws a favorable matchup against a Royals offense that ranks 21st in scoring with 4.2 runs per game. Royals starter Seth Lugo has pitched better than his 4.56 ERA suggests, posting a 4.39 fielding independent with 1.3 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings, and he faces a Padres offense that ranks last in the league in scoring at 3.95 runs per game.
Pick: Padres vs. Royals Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.6
8:40 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Colorado Rockies
Rockies starting pitcher Gabriel Hughes is making just his third career MLB appearance after posting a 4.63 ERA in the minor leagues. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.95. The Reds rank 24th in bullpen ERA at 4.61 and counter with Brady Singer, who owns a 4.72 ERA and 5.61 fielding independent with two home runs allowed per nine innings. However, Singer has allowed two earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts.
Pick: Reds Moneyline -104 and Over 12 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Reds -157 and Total 12.6
9:38 PM Eastern
Detroit Tigers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has pitched much better than his 4.39 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 3.35 fielding independent with one home run allowed and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Tigers starter Troy Melton has a sparkling 1.82 ERA, but there are signs of regression with a 4.07 fielding independent, 1.3 home runs allowed per nine innings, and only 7.5 strikeouts per nine innings. He is also backed by a lineup that ranks 23rd in road scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Angels Moneyline -108
Greg’s Handicap: Angels -131
