MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Saturday, May 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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2:15 PM Eastern
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Royals starting pitcher Noah Cameron has struggled this season, posting a 5.55 ERA with 1.3 home runs and 3.5 walks per nine innings. He is backed up by a Royals bullpen that ranks 25th in ERA at 4.64, while the offense is last in road scoring with just over three runs per game. Cardinals starting pitcher Kyle Leahy owns a 4.31 ERA with 1.4 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings overall this season, but enters this game having allowed three earned runs or fewer in six of his past seven starts.
Pick: Cardinals Moneyline -112 and Under 9 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Cardinals -143 and Total 8.3
3:15 PM Eastern
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Diamondbacks starting pitcher Eduardo Rodriguez has a 2.25 ERA this season, but a much higher 4.19 fielding independent, as he is pitching to a lot of contact with 6.2 strikeouts and 4.1 walks per nine innings. Rockies starting pitcher Tomoyuki Sugano is also pitching to plenty of contact, posting a 4.07 ERA with a much higher 5.61 fielding independent while generating only 5.1 strikeouts per nine innings and allowing 1.9 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Diamondbacks vs. Rockies Over 11 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 11.2
4:05 PM Eastern
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationals
Orioles starting pitcher Chris Bassitt has gotten off to a shaky start this season with a 5.21 ERA, recording only 6.2 strikeouts per nine innings while issuing 4.3 walks per nine innings. Nationals starting pitcher Cade Cavalli owns a 4.02 ERA, but just a 3.18 fielding independent with 9.8 strikeouts per nine innings and only one home run allowed in 40 1/3 innings. He is also supported by a lineup that ranks second in scoring with 5.4 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -102 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -134 and Total 9.1
6:10 PM Eastern
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians
Chris Paddack makes his first start for the Reds after the Miami Marlins designated him for assignment following a 7.63 ERA with 1.8 home runs and 2.9 walks per nine innings in seven appearances. After the Reds ranked number one in bullpen ERA through the first four weeks of the season, they entered this series ranked 23rd at 4.61. Guardians starting pitcher Gavin Williams owns a 3.74 ERA with 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings and some notable home-road splits, posting a 2.39 ERA with 0.7 home runs per nine innings on the road while carrying a 4.97 ERA with 1.9 home runs per nine innings at home.
Pick: Reds vs. Guardians Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 7.7
7:10 PM Eastern
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins
Brewers starting pitcher Logan Henderson has pitched better than his 4.15 ERA would indicate, as his fielding independent is 2.11 with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and only 1.4 walks and 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Twins starting pitcher Connor Prielipp has a 3.32 ERA, but a much higher 4.37 fielding independent with 1.4 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 29th in ERA at 5.38.
Pick: Brewers Moneyline -118 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Brewers -129 and Total 7.8
7:15 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. Seattle Mariners
The Padres offense has struggled lately, averaging 3.85 runs per game over its past 27 games entering this series. They now face Mariners starting pitcher Logan Gilbert, who owns a 3.78 ERA with 1.4 home runs allowed per nine innings. Padres starting pitcher Walker Buehler has pitched better than his 5.20 ERA would suggest, as he owns a 3.63 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and three walks per nine innings. He is also backed by a bullpen that ranks 10th in ERA at 3.53, while the Mariners bullpen ranks second at 3.08.
Pick: Padres vs. Mariners Under 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 6.9
9:38 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Angels starting pitcher Jose Soriano has started the season strong with a 1.66 ERA and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, allowing zero or one run in seven of his nine starts. Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski is recording only 4.4 strikeouts per nine innings, but he has excelled at inducing soft contact with 0.4 home runs and 2.2 walks allowed per nine innings to maintain a 2.42 ERA. He also faces an Angels lineup that ranks 27th in home scoring with 3.4 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers vs. Angels Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.2
9:40 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics
Athletics starting pitcher Luis Severino has opened the season with a 4.07 ERA while allowing 0.9 home runs per nine innings, but he has hurt himself by issuing 5.4 walks per nine innings. He should benefit from facing a Giants lineup that enters this series last in the league in scoring with just over 3.3 runs per game and also ranks last in walks per game. Giants starting pitcher Trevor McDonald has only six career MLB appearances, but he has been effective with a 2.08 ERA while allowing 1.9 walks and 0.5 home runs per nine innings.
Pick: Athletics Moneyline -124 and Under 10 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Athletics -146 and Total 9.3
