MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, July 7.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
Our Opta AI MLB Player Prop Projections are also available.
6:40 PM Eastern
Seattle Mariners vs. Miami Marlins
Marlins starting pitcher Max Meyer has been superb this season, posting a 2.53 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts and 0.9 home runs allowed per nine innings. He has been even better at home, where his ERA drops to 2.13 with closer to 0.7 home runs allowed per nine innings. Mariners starting pitcher Bryan Woo owns a 4.17 ERA with a 3.00 fielding independent, allowing 0.8 home runs and 1.7 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks fifth in ERA at 3.54, but the Mariners lineup ranks 24th in scoring with 4.1 runs per game.
Pick: Marlins Moneyline -106 and Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Marlins -137 and Total 7.2
6:45 PM Eastern
Houston Astros vs. Washington Nationals
Nationals starting pitcher Andrew Alvarez owns a 3.05 ERA with 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, only 0.4 home runs allowed per nine innings, and a 2.65 fielding independent. Astros starter Tatsuya Imai has struggled to a 6.15 ERA while allowing 1.5 home runs and 5.6 walks per nine innings. He now faces a Nationals lineup that ranks first in the league in scoring with more than 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -120
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -148
7:40 PM Eastern
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
The Guardians offense has struggled, averaging just 3.5 runs per game over its past 28 games, and now faces Twins starter Taj Bradley, who owns a 3.86 ERA with 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings. He has been even better at home, posting a 3.58 ERA while allowing fewer than 0.7 home runs per nine innings. Guardians starter Joey Cantillo owns a 3.86 ERA with 1.2 home runs and 4.4 walks allowed per nine innings. He faces a Twins lineup that averages 4.7 runs per game at home compared to 5.1 runs per game on the road.
Pick: Twins Moneyline -115 and Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Twins -131 and Total 7.9
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago White Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle has been solid this season, posting a 3.39 ERA with one home run allowed and nine strikeouts per nine innings. White Sox starter Noah Schultz has pitched better than his 5.86 ERA would indicate, posting a 4.85 fielding independent with one home run allowed and 8.4 strikeouts per nine innings, though he is issuing 5.4 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 15th in ERA at 4.09, while the Red Sox bullpen ranks third at 3.38.
Pick: Red Sox Moneyline -120 and Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Red Sox -134 and Total 8.4
8:05 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Rangers starting pitcher Jacob deGrom owns a 3.48 ERA and is recording 10.5 strikeouts per nine innings, though he is also allowing 1.5 home runs per nine innings. He faces an Angels lineup that ranks ninth in road scoring with 4.9 runs per game. Angels starter José Soriano owns a 3.41 ERA with a 4.01 fielding independent and is allowing 4.4 walks per nine innings. He is backed by a bullpen that ranks 24th in ERA at 4.57.
Pick: Angels vs. Rangers Over 7 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Total 8.3
10:10 PM Eastern
Colorado Rockies vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers starting pitcher Justin Wrobleski owns a stellar 2.80 ERA, but his higher 3.50 fielding independent suggests some regression as he pitches to plenty of contact with just 6.1 strikeouts per nine innings. Rockies starter Michael Lorenzen has struggled to a 6.91 ERA while allowing 1.4 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings. He now faces a Dodgers lineup that ranks second in scoring with 5.3 runs per game.
Pick: Dodgers Run Line -1.5 (-115) and Over 9.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Dodgers -143 and Total 9.8
