MLB Picks Today:
Expert baseball handicapper Greg Peterson shares his top MLB picks today for Tuesday, June 16.
Check out Greg’s Daily MLB Lines and his Baseball Betting Show Podcast. Also, check out our MLB Betting Splits and tools from our friends at Ballpark Pal, including Strikeout Prop Projections and the MLB YRFI Report.
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6:45 PM Eastern
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Red Sox starting pitcher Payton Tolle has delivered the goods this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 2.71 fielding independent with 0.5 home runs and 2.4 walks per nine innings. Blue Jays starting pitcher Dylan Cease has a 2.91 ERA and 2.36 fielding independent with 13.6 strikeouts per nine innings and is facing a Red Sox lineup that is last in the American League in scoring at home with 3.6 runs per game, while the Blue Jays are 27th in road scoring with fewer than 3.8 runs per game. The Red Sox bullpen is also third in ERA at 3.09.
Pick: Blue Jays vs. Red Sox Under 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.4
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals
Royals starting pitcher Michael Wacha has a solid 3.58 ERA, but a higher 4.04 fielding independent with only 7.1 strikeouts per nine innings. He is supported by a lineup that is last in the league in road scoring with 3.5 runs per game and a bullpen that is 27th in ERA at 4.85. The Nationals lead the league in scoring with over 5.4 runs per game and send Foster Griffin to the mound, who may be due for a bit of regression on his 3.46 ERA, as his fielding independent is 4.75 with 1.7 home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Nationals Moneyline -118
Greg’s Handicap: Nationals -139
7:05 PM Eastern
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees
While the Yankees lineup has not been the same without Aaron Judge, the team is still averaging 4.8 runs per game without him in the month of June and faces White Sox starting pitcher Davis Martin, who has had a nice season with a 2.41 ERA and 0.3 home runs per nine innings allowed, though that ERA jumps to 3.59 away from home. Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole, in four starts since coming off the injured list, has a 2.45 ERA but a much higher 4.20 fielding independent with 7.4 strikeouts and 1.2 home runs per nine innings while being supported by a bullpen that is sixth in ERA at 3.38. The White Sox bullpen ranks 18th with a 4.23 ERA.
Pick: Yankees Moneyline -138 and Over 7.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Yankees -162 and Total 8.1
7:15 PM Eastern
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Giants starting pitcher Adrian Houser has struggled with a 5.54 ERA, allowing 1.5 home runs and 3.3 walks per nine innings, and now faces a Braves lineup that is fifth in scoring with nearly 5.1 runs per game. Braves starting pitcher Grant Holmes might be due for regression on his 4.05 ERA, as he has a 5.27 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs and 3.9 walks per nine innings, but he has the support of the best bullpen in the league with a 2.82 ERA.
Pick: Braves Moneyline -150
Greg’s Handicap: Braves -213
7:45 PM Eastern
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Cardinals starting pitcher Andre Pallante owns a 3.88 ERA with a higher 4.47 fielding independent, along with 7.2 strikeouts and 3.2 walks per nine innings. Padres starting pitcher Michael King has a 3.46 ERA and 4.31 fielding independent with eight strikeouts and 3.8 walks per nine innings and is backed by the better bullpen, as the Padres are second in the league in bullpen ERA at 3.09 while the Cardinals rank 17th at 4.21. While the Padres are last in the league in scoring at 3.9 runs per game, they have been better away from home, ranking 17th in road scoring with 4.4 runs per game.
Pick: Padres Moneyline -102
Greg’s Handicap: Padres -121
8:05 PM Eastern
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Twins starting pitcher Zebby Matthews has had some issues this season, posting a 5.20 ERA with two home runs per nine innings allowed, but he should benefit from facing a Rangers offense that ranks 28th in run creation at home with 3.6 runs per game. Rangers starting pitcher Kumar Rocker has a 3.56 ERA with 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed and has shown huge home-and-road splits throughout his career, registering a 2.77 ERA with 0.5 home runs per nine innings allowed at home compared to a 6.79 ERA on the road with two home runs per nine innings allowed.
Pick: Twins vs. Rangers Under 8.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 7.9
9:40 PM Eastern
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Angels starting pitcher Reid Detmers has pitched better than his 4.00 ERA would indicate, as he owns a 2.87 fielding independent with 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings and only 0.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, but he is supported by a bullpen that ranks 26th in ERA at 4.81. Diamondbacks starting pitcher Merrill Kelly has a 5.46 ERA and 5.90 fielding independent with 1.8 home runs per nine innings allowed, though he has been much better of late with three earned runs or fewer allowed in six of his past seven starts. He faces an Angels lineup that leads the league in strikeout percentage.
Pick: Diamondbacks Moneyline -109
Greg’s Handicap: Diamondbacks -142
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics
While Athletics starting pitcher Jack Perkins has a 6.25 ERA this season, his lower 3.66 fielding independent points toward positivity, especially since he is generating 10.8 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing only one home run and three walks per nine innings. Pirates starting pitcher Mitch Keller owns a 5.14 ERA, but a much lower 3.90 fielding independent with 0.7 home runs and 3.2 walks per nine innings allowed, and his ERA drops to 4.32 away from home.
Pick: Pirates Moneyline +116 and Under 10.5 Runs
Greg’s Handicap: Pirates +102 and Total 9.7
10:10 PM Eastern
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Rays starting pitcher Drew Rasmussen owns a 2.71 ERA with 9.5 strikeouts and 1.5 walks per nine innings, but he faces a Dodgers offense that is third in the league in scoring with nearly 5.4 runs per game. The Dodgers send Justin Wrobleski to the mound, who has a 2.95 ERA but is pitching to a lot of contact with only five strikeouts per nine innings and a 3.68 fielding independent.
Pick: Rays vs. Dodgers Over 8 Runs
Greg’s Handicapped Total: 9.2
