The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Friday, May 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Under the total is 17-3 (85%, +13.75 units) in the last 20 games between the Baltimore Orioles and Washington Nationals
– The ROI on this trend is 68.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 9.5)

Trend: PHI is 14-29 (-13.43 units) as an underdog with starter Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+114 at PIT)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 418-363 record for +52.43 units and an ROI of 6.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 at WSH), TEXAS (-112 at HOU), CINCINNATI (+118 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (-112 at MIN)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 81-61 start for -0.86 units and an ROI of -0.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 at WSH), KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 7-6 for -0.43 units and an ROI of -3.3%.
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-137 vs PHI), MINNESOTA (-107 vs MIL)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 25-36 for -15.03 units and an ROI of -24.6%!
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-123 vs MIA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 89-65 start for -8.12 units and an ROI of -5.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-231 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 47-55 for +11.66 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+118 vs BAL), COLORADO (+104 vs AZ), LA ANGELS (+187 vs LAD)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a 3-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 25-16 but for -14.65 units so far. Be cautious with this one.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-231 at LAA)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 78-99 for -12.57 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+114 at PIT), DETROIT (+105 vs TOR), NY METS (+130 vs NYY), KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+109 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 24-31 for -5.19 units and an ROI of -9.4%.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs CHC)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 45-51 for +0.26 units.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+187 vs LAD)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 463-370 for +38.21 units and an ROI of 4.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-142 vs CIN), NY METS (+130 vs NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs CHC)

MLB Series Betting System #3: Small road favorites of -111 to -130 have been a solid wager in the opening game of a new series, going 226-170 for +18.56 units and an ROI of 4.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TORONTO (-126 at DET), MILWAUKEE (-112 at MIN), TEXAS (-112 at HOU), ARIZONA (-125 at COL)

MLB Series Betting System #6: Small home underdogs of -109 to +120 have been awful in the first game of a series when welcoming a new opponent in a multi-series homestand, going 139-180 for -38.26 units and an ROI of -12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (-107 vs MIL), HOUSTON (-108 vs TEX)
*WATCH FOR CHICAGO WHITE SOX vs CHC (+124 CURRENTLY)*

MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 393-335 but for -81.33 units and an ROI of -11.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-123 vs MIA), ST LOUIS (-114 vs KC), SEATTLE (-131 vs SD)

MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 418-363 record for +52.43 units and an ROI of 6.7% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-142 at WSH), TEXAS (-112 at HOU), CINCINNATI (+118 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (-112 at MIN)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2047-1941 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.89 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI, NY METS, MINNESOTA

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2062-2636 (43.9%) for -272.54 units and an ROI of -5.8% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, MIAMI, SAN DIEGO, CHICAGO CUBS, BOSTON, KANSAS CITY, SAN FRANCISCO

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 623-513 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +30.44 units, for an ROI of 2.7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 509-584 SU but for +68.99 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+102 at TB), BOSTON (+129 at ATL), SAN FRANCISCO (+113 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+109 at SEA)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 293-301 run (+14.94 units, ROI: 2.5%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL)

Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t score a lot of runs typically. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 184-151 (+11.26 units, ROI: 3.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+124 vs CHC)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: NY METS +130 (+15)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ARIZONA -125 (+28 diff), TAMPA BAY -123 (+22), LA DODGERS -231 (+18)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: SD-SEA OVER 7 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: BOS-ATL UNDER 8 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (21-23) at (902) PITTSBURGH (24-20)
Trend: PHI is 1-6 (-4.95 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 at PIT)
Trend: PHI is 14-29 (-13.43 units) as an underdog with Aaron Nola in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+114 at PIT)

(905) TORONTO (19-24) at (906) DETROIT (19-25)
Trend: TOR is just 6-13 (-9.75 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-126 at DET)

(911) MIAMI (20-24) at (912) TAMPA BAY (28-14)
Trend: TB is 14-4 (+9.86 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-123 vs MIA)

(913) CINCINNATI (23-21) at (914) CLEVELAND (24-21)
Trend: CLE is 11-3 (+8.02 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (-142 vs CIN)

(915) NEW YORK-AL (27-17) at (916) NEW YORK-NL (18-25)
Trend: Under the total is 17-6-1 (+10.40 units) in NYY road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-NYM (o/u at 7)

(917) BOSTON (18-25) at (918) ATLANTA (30-14)
Trend: Under the total is 14-5-2 (+8.50 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ATL (o/u at 8)
Trend: ATL is 13-3 (+9.99 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-156 vs BOS)

(923) KANSAS CITY (19-25) at (924) ST LOUIS (25-18)
Trend: Under the total is 10-2-1 (+7.80 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-STL (o/u at 8.5)

(927) SAN DIEGO (25-18) at (928) SEATTLE (22-23)
Trend: SD is 16-3 (+12.69 units) against non-divisional teams within the -200 to +110 line range with starter Randy Vasquez since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+109 at SEA)

(929) SAN FRANCISCO (18-26) at (930) ATHLETICS (22-21)
Trend: Under the total is 17-5-2 (+11.50 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATH (o/u at 10)
Trend: Aaron Civale’s teams are 23-12 (+4.97 units) when he starts against opponents with a < 43% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-136 vs SF)

Series #20: Baltimore at Washington, Fri 5/15-Sun 5/17
Trend: Under the total is 17-3 (85%, +13.75 units) in the last 20 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 68.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 9.5)

Series #30: Texas at Houston, Fri 5/15-Sun 5/17
Trend: Road teams are on a 34-22 (60.7%, +19.73 units) surge in the in-state AL West rivalry between Houston and Texas
– The ROI on this trend is 35.2%
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-112 at HOU)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): PHILADELPHIA, MINNESOTA, HOUSTON, KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, CLEVELAND, MINNESOTA, ATLANTA, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, KANSAS CITY, LA ANGELS, ATHLETICS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-LAA

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday, May 21)

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