Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Monday, June 15, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Home teams are 22-11 (66.7%, +7.46 units) in the last 33 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 22.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-157 vs SD)
* Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 345-306 (53%) for +23.87 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-123 vs PIT)
Trend: Nick Martinez’s teams are 3-10 (-5.84 units) when he starts as a ROAD underdog vs NL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+141 at LAD)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 121-94 start for -2.48 units and an ROI of -1.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): DETROIT (+104 at HOU), ATHLETICS (-123 vs PIT)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a GO AGAINST angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 21-21 for –5.98 units (ROI -14.2%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (-143 vs NYM)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-67 for -36.80 units and an ROI of -35.7%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+159 at PHI), SAN DIEGO (+130 at STL)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 78-93 for +9.47 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+110 at WSH), MINNESOTA (+135 at TEX), COLORADO (+178 at CHC)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 32-15 for -2.30 units.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-219 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 141-168 for -11.36 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+159 at PHI), KANSAS CITY (+110 at WSH), NY METS (+119 at CIN), SAN DIEGO (+130 at STL), DETROIT (+104 at HOU)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to an 87-104 start for -10.16 units.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (-133 vs KC)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #7: Small home favorites of -111 to -180 have been terrible in the first game of any homestand, going 411-354 but for -89.00 units and an ROI of -11.6% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-157 vs SD), TEXAS (-163 vs MIN), HOUSTON (-126 vs DET), ARIZONA (-132 vs LAA), LA DODGERS (-171 vs TB)
MLB Series Betting System #10: Teams playing in the first game of a new series on the road and coming off a win in which they scored six or more runs in a win boast a solid 437-384 record for +48.09 units and an ROI of 5.9% since the start of the 2022 season, so long as they are not priced at +175 or worse
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (+119 at CIN), TAMPA BAY (+141 at LAD)
*WATCH FOR COLORADO at CHC (+178 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,099-1,992 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.47 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (-133 vs KC), COLORADO (+178 at CHC), ATHLETICS (-123 vs PIT)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2130-2698 (44.1%) for -263.69 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): DETROIT (+104 at HOU), PITTSBURGH (+102 at ATH)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 643-531 (54.8%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +27.71 units, for an ROI of 2.4%.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-194 vs MIA)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 345-306 (53%) for +23.87 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (-123 vs PIT)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 193-226 SU record for +42.10 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+178 at CHC)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: SAN DIEGO +130 (+21 diff)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ATHLETICS -123 (+28 diff), WASHINGTON -133 (+19)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-TEX OVER 8 (+0.6)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: TB-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-0.7)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(951) MIAMI (36-36) at (952) PHILADELPHIA (38-33)
Trend: Over the total is 20-8-3 (+11.20 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PHI (o/u at 8)
(955) SAN DIEGO (37-33) at (956) ST LOUIS (38-31)
Trend: Lucas Giolito’s teams are 16-22 (-8.28 units) in his last 38 starts against the NL
Trend Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+130 at STL)
(957) COLORADO (27-45) at (958) CHICAGO-NL (37-35)
Trend: CHC is 34-16 (+11.02 units) against teams with a < 0.57% win pct with starter Shota Imanaga since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-219 vs COL)
(959) MINNESOTA (33-40) at (960) TEXAS (35-36)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 8-16 (-12.97 units) when he starts in home games vs teams with losing records in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-163 vs MIN)
(963) KANSAS CITY (29-43) at (964) WASHINGTON (37-35)
Trend: Over the total is 23-9-3 (+13.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): KC-WSH (o/u at 9)
(965) LOS ANGELES-AL (29-43) at (966) ARIZONA (36-35)
Trend: AZ is 11-5 (+4.67 units) as a home favorite with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): ARIZONA (-132 vs LAA)
(969) TAMPA BAY (41-27) at (970) LOS ANGELES-NL (45-27)
Trend: Nick Martinez’s teams are 3-10 (-5.84 units) when he starts as a road underdog vs NL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+141 at LAD)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #14: San Diego at St Louis, Mon 6/15-Wed 6/17
Trend: Home teams are 22-11 (66.7%, +7.46 units) in the last 33 games between San Diego and St Louis
– The ROI on this trend is 22.6%
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-157 vs SD)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 12:30 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): WASHINGTON, CHICAGO CUBS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MINNESOTA, DETROIT, LA ANGELS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON, ATHLETICS, LA ANGELS, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, June 16)
