The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, April 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 13-0 (+13.40 units) on the road vs NL West opponents within line range of +125 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-112 at AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 361-391 but for +102.75 units and an ROI of 13.7% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at NYY), NY METS (+113 at CHC), TEXAS (+119 at SEA)

* Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 160-85 SU (+41.77 units, ROI: 17%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-240 at COL)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For ’26, the success is continuing as these teams are off to a strong 38-19 start for +10.30 units and an ROI of +18.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-143 at WSH), BALTIMORE (-102 at CLE), SEATTLE (-143 vs TEX)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For ’26, after a great last week, these teams are off to a 45-26 start for +4.98 units and an ROI of 7%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MILWAUKEE (-110 at MIA), SAN DIEGO (-118 at LAA)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 20-26 for +5.09 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+119 vs SF), MINNESOTA (-126 vs CIN), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at ATH)

Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and a winning percentage >=19% higher than the opponent
A 2923 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the ’25 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 17-10 but for -8.48 units so far.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-232 at COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The ’24 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a solid start, 39-36 for +7.91 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-102 at CLE), MILWAUKEE (-110 at MIA), CINCINNATI (+104 at MIN), ARIZONA (-108 vs TOR), DETROIT (+119 at BOS), ATLANTA (-102 at PHI)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in ’26, and these teams are 17-22 for -1.52 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at NYY), MIAMI (-110 vs MIL), MINNESOTA (-126 vs CIN), NY METS (+113 at CHC), TORONTO (-112 at AZ), PHILADELPHIA (-118 vs AZ)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 361-391 but for +102.75 units and an ROI of 13.7% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at NYY), NY METS (+113 at CHC), TEXAS (+119 at SEA)

MLB Series Betting System #11: Road teams wrapping up a series after a game in which they lost and scored 4 or fewer runs have bounced back well with a 641-742 record, but for +26.87 units and an ROI of 1.9% since the start of the ’22 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at NYY), NY METS (+113 at CHC), BALTIMORE (-102 at CLE), TEXAS (+119 at SEA), TORONTO (-112 at AZ)

MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 47-23 SU for +10.43 units (ROI: 14.9%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-115 vs TB)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2016-1904 (51.4%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -259.32 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-156 vs KC)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2020-2574 (44%) for -253.00 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS, BALTIMORE, TORONTO

Home teams that did score well last game are also actually a bad bet in the next outing
Going back another season to 2018, home teams coming off a game in which they scored five runs or more are winning more often than not at 4,078-3,542 (53.5%), but they have been a loser for bettors at -511.84 units and an ROI of -6.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY YANKEES, PITTSBURGH, WASHINGTON, ATHLETICS, HOUSTON, SEATTLE, ARIZONA

Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 605-501 (54.7%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +28.66 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): MIAMI (-110 vs MIL)

Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 371-186 (66.6%) for +50.27 units and an ROI of 9%!
System Match (PLAY): NY YANKEES (-156 vs KC)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 86-129 SU (-22.12 units, ROI: -10.3%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (-105 at PIT)

Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 160-85 SU (+41.77 units, ROI: 17%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-240 at COL)

Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 181-214 SU record for +39.54 units and an ROI of 10% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+119 vs SF)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #1:
MLB road favorites of -115 or more and winning <= 0.38% of their games have gone 70-41 SU for +13.90 units (ROI: 12.5%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR TORONTO at AZ (-112 CURRENTLY)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 470-531 SU but for +74.33 units (ROI: 7.4%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 160-173 SU for +36.87 units in the last 333 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (+129 at NYY), NY METS (+113 at CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at ATH), TEXAS (+119 at SEA)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more are on a 38-100 skid (-38.99 units, ROI -28.3%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 71-144 skid (-40.90 units, ROI: -19%).
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of 7 games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 18-22 (+9.01 units, ROI: 22.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 94-176 (-60.98 units, ROI: -22.6%) since the start of the 2021 season.
Systems Match (FADE): NY METS (+113 at CHC)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a 4-game winning streak are just 141-144 (-62.94 units, ROI: -22.1%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MILWAUKEE (-110 at MIA), CHICAGO CUBS (-136 vs NYM), ATLANTA (-102 at PHI)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: ATHLETICS -156 (+42 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -136 (+28), SAN FRANCISCO -143 (+24), SEATTLE -143 (+17)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-CLE OVER 6.5 (+1.2), ATL-PHI OVER 8 (+0.7), NYM-CHC OVER 8 (+0.6)

Today’s TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: CWS-ATH UNDER 9.5 (-0.6)

MLB Team/Pitcher Situational Trend Spots

The following situational trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) SAN FRANCISCO (9-12) at (902) WASHINGTON (9-12)
Trend: Under the total is 17-6 (+10.45 units) as favorites with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-WSH (o/u at 8.5)

Trend: SF is 21-8 (+14.60 units) against NL teams with starter Robbie Ray since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-143 at WSH)

(903) MILWAUKEE (12-8) at (904) MIAMI (9-12)
Trend: MIA is 6-10 (-6.00 units) against NL Central/West opponents with starter Eury Perez in the last few seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (-110 vs MIL)

(915) BALTIMORE (10-11) at (916) CLEVELAND (12-10)
Trend: Trevor Rogers is 18-38 (-15.59 units) as an underdog within line range -109 to +154 since 2020 (mostly starts with MIA)
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-102 at CLE)

(919) TEXAS (11-10) at (920) SEATTLE (9-13)
Trend: SEA is 20-5 (+12.70 units) in home games with starter Bryan Woo since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-143 vs TEX)

(921) TAMPA BAY (12-8) at (922) PITTSBURGH (12-9)
Trend: PIT is 10-25 (-11.14 units) vs teams with a >58% win pct with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-115 vs TB)

(929) TORONTO (7-13) at (930) ARIZONA (13-8)
Trend: Kevin Gausman’s teams are 13-0 (+13.40 units) on the road vs NL West opponents within line range of +125 or higher in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-112 at AZ)

Series #10: Detroit at Boston, Fri 4/17-Sun 4/19
Trend: DETROIT is 9-16 (36%, -6.12 units) in the last 25 games vs. Boston
–  The ROI on this trend is -24.5%
Trend Match (FADE): DETROIT (+119 at BOS)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:00 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% three-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): TAMPA BAY, BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, ATLANTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy road favorites of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, CINCINNATI, ST LOUIS, SAN DIEGO, TORONTO

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): BOSTON

DK MLB Betting Splits system #8: There has been a distinct pattern of performance for majority handle bettors by month since the beginning of the ‘23 season. Combined March/April ROI has been +0.4%, while the May, June, and July months have all slipped below 10% ROI, consecutively -11.9%, -10.6%, 14.2%. August has seen a bit of revival on return of -5.3%, while the seasons have ended with a September/October drain of -10.9%.
– Majority handle bettors on home teams in March/April of 2024-25 were 293-171 (63.1%) for +22.24 units and an ROI of +6.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES, ATHLETICS, BOSTON

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, April 19)

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