Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, July 5, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 390-195 (66.7%) for +56.98 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-118 vs NYM)
Trend: BAL is 17-5 (+10.79 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against opponents with a 47% or lower win pct the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-110 at CIN)
Trend: Under the total is 22-9 (71%, +12.04 units) in the last 31 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 38.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. These teams have had a couple tough weeks lately, sitting at 140-116 for -10.76 units and an ROI of -4.2% on the season.
System Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-121 at TEX)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 30-27 for –5.76 units (ROI -10.1%).
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): MINNESOTA (+113 at NYY)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 47-84 for -40.71 units and an ROI of -31.1%!
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+135 vs BOS)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 97-124 for +2.12 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect. However, it has lost about 7.83 units the last four weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+119 vs PHI)
Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record is 45-24 for -8.02 units, ROI -11.6%, as it is now acting like its usual self.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 vs SD)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 22-14 start for -9.14 units, and an ROI of -25.4%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-207 vs SD)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 170-228 for -39.22 units. This ROI of -9.9% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+113 at WSH), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at CLE), BALTIMORE (-110 at CIN), MIAMI (+100 at ATH)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 146-94 for +34.22 units, an ROI of +14.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-118 vs NYM), DETROIT (-121 at TEX), MILWAUKEE (-122 at AZ), SAN FRANCISCO (-120 at COL)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 49-65 for -16.33 units and a solid ROI of -14.3%.
System Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (+123 at CHC)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 87-90 for +8.66 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY METS (-102 at ATL), KANSAS CITY (+119 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD), LA ANGELS (+135 vs BOS)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 452-474 but for +30.40 units and an ROI of 3.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-102 at ATL), SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD), LA ANGELS (+135 vs BOS)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 393-445 but for +85.63 units and an ROI of 10.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (+113 at WSH), MINNESOTA (+113 at NYY), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+123 at CLE), ST LOUIS (+123 at CHC), SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD)
*WATCH FOR NY METS at ATLANTA (-102 CURRENTLY) and MIAMI at ATH (+100 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 169-67 for +18.92 units and an ROI of 8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-207 vs SD)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of 7-runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 462-447 (50.8%) for +13.61 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.5%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY YANKEES (-136 vs MIN), LA ANGELS (+135 vs BOS)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,141-2,020 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -264.26 units. This represents an ROI of -6.4%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MINNESOTA (+113 at NYY), ATLANTA (-118 vs NYM), HOUSTON (-110 vs TB), SEATTLE (-131 vs TOR)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2169-2742 (44.2%) for -268.26 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TORONTO (+108 at SEA), SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 648-544 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +16.55 units, for an ROI of 1.4%.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (-149 vs STL)
Hitting a lot of home runs has a carryover effect for home favorites
Home favorites coming off a game in which they hit four or more home runs have proven to be a very good investment for baseball bettors over the last 6+ seasons, going 390-195 (66.7%) for +56.98 units and an ROI of 9.7%!
System Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-118 vs NYM)
Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 65-40-5 (61.9%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 35-13 Over streak in the last 48).
System Match (PLAY OVER): TB-HOU (o/u at 8.5)
Bats revert to the mean after high-scoring outing
Teams having scored 7+ runs the previous day have slowed down when playing as day game intraleague underdogs/pick ’ems with high totals (>= 9.5), as Under the total is 146-105-17 (58.2%) since the end of July 2021.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): PIT-WSH (o/u at 9.5)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 41-106 skid (-41.84 units, ROI -28.5%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 19-25 (+6.91 units, ROI: 15.7%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 102-185 (-63.80 units, ROI: -22.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 43-80 in their last 123 tries (-21.61 units, ROI: -17.6%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD)
Losing Streak Betting System #5:
Teams on 6+ game losing streaks playing in less-competitive divisional games (-150 or more favorite/+150 or more underdog) have had their totals go Over at a 66-49-8 (57.4%) rate since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY OVER): SD-LAD (o/u at 9.5)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 308-318 run (+10.74 units, ROI: 1.7%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA ANGELS (+135 vs BOS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: ARIZONA +101 (+22 diff), TEXAS +101 (+18)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: DET-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SD-LAD UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), MIA-ATH UNDER 10 (-0.8), SF-COL UNDER 13 (-0.7), CWS-CLE UNDER 8.5 (-0.6), MIL-AZ UNDER 9 (-0.6)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(903) ST LOUIS (46-39) at (904) CHICAGO-NL (49-39)
Trend: STL is 34-16 (+11.76 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 at CHC)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (36-52) at (906) ATLANTA (51-35)
Trend: NYM is 6-18 (-11.59 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-102 at ATL)
(909) MILWAUKEE (54-32) at (910) ARIZONA (43-44)
Trend: MIL is 19-9 (+12.25 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at AZ)
Trend: AZ is 13-25 (-8.58 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+101 vs MIL)
(913) MINNESOTA (42-47) at (914) NEW YORK-AL (49-38)
Trend: Over the total is 31-18-5 (+11.20 units) when MIN is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): MIN-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(915) DETROIT (38-50) at (916) TEXAS (45-43)
Trend: DET is 18-11 (+6.13 units) in DAY game starts with Casey Mize since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-121 at TEX)
(917) TORONTO (42-46) at (918) SEATTLE (45-44)
Trend: SEA is 18-28 (-7.80 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs TOR)
(923) BOSTON (38-48) at (924) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-53)
Trend: Under the total is 30-20-3 (+8.00 units) in BOS night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-LAA (o/u at 8)
(925) BALTIMORE (41-48) at (926) CINCINNATI (40-47)
Trend: BAL is 17-5 (+10.79 units) with starter Kyle Bradish against opponents with a 47% or lower win pct
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-110 at CIN)
Trend: CIN is 18-22 (-10.57 units) with starter Nick Lodolo in his career vs teams with a losing record
Trend Match (FADE): CINCINNATI (-109 vs BAL)
(927) PHILADELPHIA (49-39) at (928) KANSAS CITY (35-53)
Trend: KC is 15-28 (-10.15 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+119 vs PHI)
(929) MIAMI (47-42) at (930) ATHLETICS (41-47)
Trend: MIA is 5-17 (-14.35 units) on the run line vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+1.5 at ATH)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #1: Toronto at Seattle, Fri 7/3-Sun 7/5
Trend: Road teams are on a 13-6 (68.4%, +8.62 units) surge in the SEA-TOR series
– The ROI on this trend is 45.4%
Trend Match (PLAY): TORONTO (+108 at SEA)
Series #6: Chi White Sox at Cleveland, Thu 7/2-Sun 7/5
Trend: Under the total is 22-9 (71%, +12.04 units) in the last 31 games between the White Sox and Guardians in Cleveland
– The ROI on this trend is 38.8%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CWS-CLE (o/u at 8.5)
Series #17: San Francisco at Colorado, Fri 7/3-Sun 7/5
Trend: COLORADO is 12-39 (23.5%, -21.47 units) in their last 51 games vs. San Francisco
– The ROI on this trend is -42.1%
Trend Match (FADE): COLORADO (-101 vs SF)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-136 vs PIT)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): MINNESOTA (+113 at NYY), KANSAS CITY (+119 vs PHI), SAN DIEGO (+169 at LAD)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-109 vs BAL), KANSAS CITY (+119 vs PHI), ATHLETICS (-120 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): ATHLETICS (-120 vs MIA)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (nine or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-CIN (o/u at 9.5)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one tomorrow, July 6)
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