USA vs Belgium | 2026 FIFA World Cup Round of 16 | Monday, July 6 | 8 p.m. ET | Lumen Field | Seattle
USA (+165) | Draw (+240) | Belgium (+165)
Over 2.5 Goals (-135) | Under 2.5 Goals (+105)
USA +0.5 (-195) | Belgium -0.5 (+150)
The USA face Belgium at Lumen Field on July 6 with a place in the quarterfinals on the line — the co-hosts chasing a first last-eight appearance since 2002, Belgium their third in four tournaments.
The USA beat Bosnia and Herzegovina 2-0 at Levi’s Stadium to reach the Round of 16, ending a 13-game winless streak against European sides. Folarin Balogun scored on the stroke of half-time before being sent off in the 64th minute after a VAR review, ruling him out of this game. Malik Tillman’s 82nd-minute free kick sealed the win with ten men.
Belgium completed one of the great World Cup comebacks, recovering from 2-0 down with five minutes of normal time remaining to beat Senegal 3-2 after extra time. Substitute Romelu Lukaku pulled one back in the 86th minute before Youri Tielemans headed home an equalizer three minutes later to force extra time. Tielemans then converted a controversial VAR-awarded penalty deep into stoppage time to send Belgium through.
The USA have scored two or more goals in all four of their World Cup games so far, but with leading scorer Balogun suspended, the door is open for someone else to step up and be the hero against a Belgium side that has proven it can find a way through even when the odds are stacked against them.
USA TEAM NEWS
The biggest question is how Mauricio Pochettino adjusts his frontline with Folarin Balogun suspended. The AS Monaco forward has arguably been the USA’s best and most influential player, scoring three goals in three appearances before a contentious VAR red card against Bosnia and Herzegovina robbed him of this one.
Haji Wright is the closest like-for-like replacement, offering a similar blend of aerial presence, pace on the counter and clinical finishing. But he’s played just one minute of the tournament so far, coming on in stoppage time against Australia — and for that reason I expect Pochettino to turn to Ricardo Pepi, who started both the Australia and Türkiye games.
Christian Pulišić shook off his injury concerns to play 88 minutes against Bosnia and Herzegovina and will carry more of the attacking burden with Balogun out. Midfielder Cristian Roldán is dealing with a calf strain and will be touch and go for the matchday squad after missing the win over Bosnia and Herzegovina. Mark McKenzie also sat out with a foot injury but has returned to full training.
USA Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Mauricio Pochettino
GK: M. Freese
RB: A. Freeman | CB: C. Richards | CB: T. Ream (C) | LB: A. Robinson
CM: W. McKennie | CM: T. Adams | CM: M. Tillman
RW: S. Dest | CF: R. Pepi | LW: C. Pulišić
BELGIUM TEAM NEWS
Belgium’s only injury concern is defender Zeno Debast. The Sporting CP center-back has just returned to training after suffering a leg injury and could be named on the bench. I expect De Bruyne and Doku to keep their starting spots despite being subbed off against Senegal.
Thomas Meunier could return to the starting lineup at the expense of Timothy Castagne or Maxim De Cuyper. Garcia will continue using Romelu Lukaku as a super sub, with Charles De Ketelaere starting. The Napoli striker logged just 39 minutes of competitive action for his club this season after a preseason thigh injury. He won’t press, he won’t run the channels — he’ll sit centrally and wait for his moment, which is exactly why Garcia keeps him on the bench until the game opens up.
Belgium Predicted Lineup 4-2-3-1
Manager: Rudi Garcia
GK: T. Courtois
RB: T. Castagne | CB: B. Mechele | CB: A. Theate | LB: M. De Cuyper
CM: Y. Tielemans (C) | CM: H. Vanaken
RM: L. Trossard | AM: K. De Bruyne | LM: J. Doku
CF: C. De Ketelaere
MATCH BREAKDOWN
Rudi Garcia is a man on borrowed time with his contract ending after the World Cup. If Belgium go out, his time is up — and that’s also true for the pillars of their golden generation: De Bruyne (35), Lukaku (33), Axel Witsel (37), Meunier (34) and perhaps Thibaut Courtois (34). These will be the final memories of Belgium’s golden generation at a World Cup, and possibly their last international tournament.
That makes them dangerous despite how poor they’ve been at this tournament — epitomized by Garcia’s decision to replace De Bruyne and Doku in the 56th minute while 2-0 down to Senegal. A decision you probably don’t make if you’re continuing in the job.
That’s not the biggest concern for Pochettino or the USA — it’s whether they can maintain their own form without the player who’s driven it. Balogun’s ability to press, hold up the ball, and finish clinically has made him the focal point of the attack. Three goals in three appearances tell one story, but his influence off the ball has been just as important. Without him, Pochettino loses the player who sets the tone and drags defenders out of position to create space with his pace and darting runs.
Pepi is a capable replacement but a different profile — more of a penalty-box poacher than the all-round threat Balogun has provided, though he does like to press and exploit space behind defensive lines through well-timed runs. That puts more pressure on Pulišić to create and more onus on the midfield to control possession and dictate tempo. If the USA can’t break Belgium down early and put them away, the game could drift into the kind of chaos we saw in the final minutes of the Belgium vs Senegal game.
Chaos means opportunity for Doku and Leandro Trossard – Belgium’s two biggest attacking options. Anyone who’s watched Doku this season for Manchester City knows that on his day he is unplayable. Electric pace, explosive acceleration and the ability to go past you down the line or cut inside make him a nightmare for full-backs. Trossard offers clever movement; he can drift inside and find pockets of space, and has a habit of arriving late in the box to finish, which has earned him two goals and one assist so far. If Garcia finally gets a tune out of both, Belgium have the tools to hurt the USA.
That puts Alexander Freeman and Antonee Robinson firmly in the spotlight. When these two have started, the USA have only conceded once — Paraguay’s consolation goal. Looking at the wingers they’ve faced, no one comes close to the quality of Doku and Trossard.
Despite Belgium’s poor form and dysfunctional performances, this is the biggest test of the tournament for the USA’s defense. How they handle it will determine whether the co-hosts make history or Belgium’s golden generation keep the lights on for at least one more game.
THE BET
Balogun’s absence has made this really difficult to handicap. If he was available, I’d be siding with the USA Moneyline — and it remains scandalous that FIFA doesn’t have an appeals process in place for red cards.
That said, I have a feeling the way Belgium survived against Senegal could be the kick up the ass they needed. There’s nothing like a near-exit experience to get the adrenaline pumping and focus the mind. Doku — who was subbed off at 2-0 down and forced to watch the comeback from the bench — is exactly the type of player who can turn up on Monday evening and produce a world-class performance out of nowhere.
Belgium’s defense remains poor, conceding four goals and managing one clean sheet. The USA have enough in attack without Balogun to create chances and score. Pulišić will carry more of the creative burden, and Pepi’s movement in the box and finishing give them a genuine goal threat.
I’m backing Both Teams To Score Yes (-180) and Over 2.5 Goals (-135). It’s the safest bet available in a match the sportsbooks have priced as a pick ’em.
Pick: Same Game Parlay — Both Teams To Score Yes and Over 2.5 Goals -110
SPONSORED
DOC’S SPORTS AI-v2 has climbed to another ALL-TIME HIGH of +23,020 units since inception with ZERO losing months.
The AI-v2 system is already up +18,460 units in 2026 and has produced 80% winners over the last 11 days.
Doc’s Sports AI-v2 combines the work of professional bettors, data scientists and expert coders into a continuously evolving betting model.
