Today we wrap up the July 4th weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Pirates at Washington Nationals (-140, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Nationals (46-44) won the opener 9-5, coming through as -150 home favorites. Then the Pirates (45-45) bounced back with a 7-1 win yesterday, cashing as -160 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Pirates hand the ball to righty Bubba Chandler (3-8, 4.62 ERA) and the Nationals turn to fellow righty Cade Cavalli (5-4, 3.69 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 home favorite and Pittsburgh a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Nationals to earn a victory and take the series, pushing Washington up from -130 to -140 and even -145 at some shops.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and 90% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Washington is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 94% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk.
Sunday home favorites with a winning record receiving line movement in their direction, like the Nats here, are 29-16 (64%) with a 5% ROI this season.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season are 105-65 (62%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Cavalli has pitched well as of late, allowing only 2 earned runs over 13 innings in his last two starts (1.38 ERA).
Meanwhile, Chandler is just 1-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road this season.
3 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-140, 10) at Kansas City Royals
The Phillies (50-39) took last night’s Interleague series opener 6-1, cashing as -160 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s rematch, the Phillies start righty Aaron Nola (3-5, 6.04 ERA) and the Royals (35-54) rebuttal with fellow righty Luinder Avila (3-3, 5.40 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -135 road favorite and Kansas City a +115 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Phillies laying modest chalk, pushing Philadelphia up from -135 to -140 or even -145 at some shops.
At Circa, the Phillies are receiving 88% of moneyline bets and a whopping 96% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating heavy one-way action in their favor from the wiseguys in Vegas.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Phillies here, are 63-38 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Sunday road favorites facing a below .500 team are 22-12 (65%) with a 12% ROI this season.
Philadelphia has the better bats, posting a .406 slugging percentage with 400 runs scored compared to Kansas City posting a .387 slugging percentage with 364 runs scored.
Nola has been better on the road (5.40 ERA) than at home (6.81 ERA).
Meanwhile, Avila is 0-3 with a 12.79 ERA at home compared to 3-0 with a 2.65 ERA on the road.
The Phillies are 25-18 (58%) on the road, the 4th best road record in MLB.
On the other hand, the Royals are 19-26 at home (42%) withe 4th worst home record in MLB.
9:30 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox (-165, 8) at Los Angeles Angels
The Red Sox (39-48) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 5-2 as -105 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-1 as -180 road favorites.
In tonight’s series finale, the Red Sox tap lefty Ranger Suarez (4-3, 2.94 ERA) and the Angels (36-54) go with righty Ryan Johnson (1-3, 7.40 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -155 road favorite and Los Angeles a +135 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and banking on the Red Sox to complete the sweep, steaming Boston up from -155 to -165.
At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Non-division road favorites off a win receiving line movement in their favor, like the Red Sox here, are 63-38 (62%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Boston offers correlative betting value as a bigger favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
Suarez posted a 2.10 ERA in five June starts, allowing only 7 earned runs in 30 innings pitched. He is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA on the road.
Boston has the better bullpen, sporting a team ERA of 3.39 (3rd best in MLB) compared to 4.59 for Los Angeles (24th).
