The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, June 14, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 62-35-5 (63.9%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 32-8 Over streak in the last 40).
System Match (PLAY OVER): STL-MIN (o/u at 9)

Trend: Home teams are 24-11 (68.6%, +9.98 units) since 2021 in the TEX-BOS series
– The ROI on this trend is 28.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-118 vs TEX)

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a 3-game losing streak are 441-467 but for +25.94 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-120 vs HOU), COLORADO (+163 at ATH)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating and starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams have gone positive again at 121-92 start for -0.30 units and an ROI of -0.6 after last week brought in +6.74 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (-101 vs TB), BOSTON (-118 vs TEX)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen HAS TO be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 20-20 for –5.34 units (ROI -13.4%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-162 vs MIA), SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs CHC)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 36-66 for -35.80 units and an ROI of -35.1%!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SF)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 77-93 for +8.38 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect.
System Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+113 vs SEA)

Fade better bullpen overpriced favorites of -190 or higher when win percentage difference of teams is <19%
In the last three regular seasons in which the team with the Steve Makinen better rated bullpen was listed as a favorite of -190 or higher and had a winning percentage less than 19% higher than the opponent, that team has owned a 427-241 record, but for -131.5 units. This has been an ROI of -19.7%! The 2025 record was 120-59 for -13.3 units. The 2026 record so far is 32-13 for +1.73 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-197 at CWS), ATHLETICS (-199 vs COL)

Overpriced better bullpen without a big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 20-9 start for -0.62 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-197 at CWS), ATHLETICS (-199 vs COL)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick em’). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 138-163 for -9.88 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+134 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+119 at BAL), CLEVELAND (-110 vs DET), ATLANTA (+105 at NYM), HOUSTON (-101 at KC), ST LOUIS (-105 at MIN), MILWAUKEE (+109 vs PHI), CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SF), LA ANGELS (-101 vs TB)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 70-80 for -0.32 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-120 vs HOU), COLORADO (+163 at ATH)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 441-467 but for +25.94 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-120 vs HOU), COLORADO (+163 at ATH)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 384-432 but for +87.44 units and an ROI of 10.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (+104 at NYM), CHICAGO CUBS (+113 at SF)
*WATCH FOR HOUSTON (-101) at KC, TEXAS (-102) at BOS, and ST LOUIS (-105) at MIN*

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2098-1990 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -273.27 units. This represents an ROI of -6.7%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ST LOUIS (-105 at MIN), SAN DIEGO (+119 at BAL), PHILADELPHIA (-120 at MIL)

ROAD TEAMS that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2127-2698 (44.1%) for -267.04 units and an ROI of -5.5% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): MIAMI (+134 at PIT), ARIZONA (-112 at CIN), DETROIT (-109 at CLE), TAMPA BAY (-120 at LAA)

Ride the hot bats to Overs
Once the calendar hits June, home teams who hit 3+ HRs themselves but also gave up 3+ HRs in their previous game have had their totals go Over at a 62-35-5 (63.9%) rate in the follow-up game in the last three seasons (including a 32-8 Over streak in the last 40).
System Match (PLAY OVER): STL-MIN (o/u at 9)

Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 344-306 (52.9%) for +22.79 units and an ROI of 3.5% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-101 vs PHI)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 100-146 SU (-23.83 units, ROI: -9.7%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): HOUSTON (-101 at KC)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), Underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 223-258 SU but for +45.13 units (ROI: 9.4%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (+119 at BAL), COLORADO (+163 at ATH)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-36 SU for +21.39 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR ST LOUIS at MIN (-105 CURRENTLY)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: TORONTO +109 (+26 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX +161 (+25), HOUSTON -101 (+22), SAN DIEGO +119 (+21), ATLANTA +105 (+20), MILWAUKEE +109 (+17)

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: CLEVELAND -110 (+31 diff)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: PHI-MIL OVER 6.5 (+1.0), DET-CLE OVER 7 (+0.6)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: SD-BAL UNDER 10.5 (-1.2), AZ-CIN UNDER 10 (-0.9), ATL-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) MIAMI (35-36) at (902) PITTSBURGH (36-35)
Trend: Over the total is 20-7-3 (+12.30 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-PIT (o/u at 7)

(903) ATLANTA (46-24) at (904) NEW YORK-NL (31-39)
Trend: Over the total is 23-12-2 (+9.80 units) in ATL road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-NYM (o/u at 8.5)

(907) PHILADELPHIA (38-32) at (908) MILWAUKEE (42-26)
Trend: PHI is 17-27 (-15.32 units) in line range of -145 or shorter with starter Cristopher Sanchez in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (-131 at MIL)

(913) DETROIT (29-42) at (914) CLEVELAND (39-33)
Trend: DET is 18-10 (+7.23 units) in day game starts with Casey Mize since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): DETROIT (-110 at CLE)

(919) TEXAS (34-36) at (920) BOSTON (29-39)
Trend: TEX is 15-24 (-13.03 units) on the run line in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (+1.5 at BOS)

(921) SAN DIEGO (36-33) at (922) BALTIMORE (34-38)
Trend: Over the total is 21-10-2 (+10.00 units) in BAL day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SD-BAL (o/u at 10.5)
Trend: Walker Buehler’s teams are 23-10 (+11.56 units) when he starts vs AL opponents since 2019
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN DIEGO (+119 at BAL)

(923) SEATTLE (37-35) at (924) WASHINGTON (36-35)
Trend: Over the total is 23-9-2 (+13.10 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-WSH (o/u at 10)

(927) LOS ANGELES-NL (45-26) at (928) CHICAGO-AL (37-32)
Trend: CWS is 23-12 (+12.90 units) in home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+161 vs LAD)

Series #19: NY Yankees at Toronto, Fri 6/12-Sun 6/14
Trend: Favorites are just 32-47 (40.5%, -34.68 units) in the last 79 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
– The ROI on this trend is -43.9%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-131 at TOR)

Series #29: Texas at Boston, Fri 6/12-Sun 6/14
Trend: Home teams are 24-11 (68.6%, +9.98 units) since 2021 in the TEX-BOS series
– The ROI on this trend is 28.5%
Trend Match (PLAY): BOSTON (-118 vs TEX)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:40 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs CHC)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #5: For as good as majority handle bettors have been on huge home favorites since the beginning of last season, they are equally as bad on heavy ROAD FAVORITES of -200 or higher. This group is 156-81 (65.8%) for -37.06 units and an ROI of -15.6%. This has proven to be a brutal way to drain a bankroll quickly.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR LA DODGERS at CWS (-197 CURRENTLY)

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN DIEGO, SEATTLE, LA DODGERS, ST LOUIS, ATHLETICS

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO (-136 vs CHC), BOSTON (-118 vs TEX)

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Tuesday, June 16)

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