The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Sunday, May 17, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 15-2 (+12.06 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-121 vs NYY)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 373-413 but for +93.11 units and an ROI of 11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+123 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+119 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+139 at SEA)

* In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 218-251 SU but for +45.33 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+124 vs AZ)

MLB Bullpen Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.

Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 83-65 start for -3.59 units and an ROI of -2.4%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-126 at WSH), NY METS (-121 vs NYY), KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL)

STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS

Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 8-9 for -2.89 units and an ROI of -17%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): PITTSBURGH (-143 vs PHI)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 27-36 for -12.59 units and an ROI of -20%!
System Matches (FADE ALL): BOSTON (+135 at ATL), LA DODGERS (-142 at LAA)

Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 93-67 start for -7.35 units and an ROI of -4.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): TAMPA BAY (-149 vs MIA), PHILADELPHIA (+119 at PIT), CLEVELAND (-163 vs CIN), NY METS (-121 vs NYY), SEATTLE (-168 vs SD)

Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 49-58 for +11.02 units. I don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+105 vs BAL), CINCINNATI (+135 at CLE), ST LOUIS (-114 vs KC), COLORADO (+124 vs AZ)

Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a rocky start, 85-102 for -7.70 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+119 at PIT), KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL), SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at ATH), SAN DIEGO (+139 at SEA)

Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on 2-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 53-62 start for -2.55 units (ROI -2.2%). Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 24-32 for -6.19 units and an ROI of -11.1%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): 2-games – WASHINGTON (+105 vs BAL), HOUSTON (-101 vs TEX)
3-games – ST LOUIS (-114 vs KC)

Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 45-53 for -1.74 units.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+118 vs LAD)

MLB Series Systems

The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.

MLB Series Betting System #2: Teams wrapping up a series and riding at least a three-game losing streak are 430-450 but for +32.48 units and an ROI of 3.7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL), LA ANGELS (+118 vs LAD)

MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 373-413 but for +93.11 units and an ROI of 11.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Matches (PLAY ALL): MIAMI (+123 at TB), PHILADELPHIA (+119 at PIT), SAN DIEGO (+139 at SEA)

MLB Extreme Stats Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game

“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2049-1946 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -271.38 units. This represents an ROI of -6.8%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): WASHINGTON (+105 vs BAL), MIAMI (+123 at TB), LA DODGERS (-142 at LAA)

Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2070-2642 (43.9%) for -270.46 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL), ARIZONA (-156 at COL), MILWAUKEE (-123 at MIN), TEXAS (-120 at HOU)

Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 94-140 SU (-24.71 units, ROI: -10.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+123 at TB)

MLB Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

MLB Team Strength Betting System #3:
In MLB games with high totals (>= 10.5), underdogs between the +116 to +180 line range have gone 218-251 SU but for +45.33 units (ROI: 9.7%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): COLORADO (+124 vs AZ)

MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 513-587 SU but for +70.45 units (ROI: 6.4%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): CINCINNATI (+135 at CLE)

MLB Streak Systems

The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.

Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 293-304 run (+11.77 units, ROI: 2%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): KANSAS CITY (-105 at STL)

Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their 4-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 160-153 (-55.71 units, ROI: -17.8%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-142 at LAA)

Today’s MLB Strength Ratings

The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.

Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: LA DODGERS -142 (+30 diff), CHICAGO CUBS -131 (+29), ARIZONA -149 (+28), CLEVELAND -163 (+24), TAMPA BAY -149 (+23), ATHLETICS -149 (+15)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIL-MIN OVER 8 (+0.5)

Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: NYY-NYM UNDER 8.5 (-0.5)

Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots

The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.

(901) PHILADELPHIA (23-23) at (902) PITTSBURGH (24-22)
Trend: PHI is 26-12 (+7.50 units) in the last 38 day game starts by Zach Wheeler
Trend Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (+119 at PIT)

(905) TORONTO (20-25) at (906) DETROIT (20-26)
Trend: TOR is just 7-14 (-10.01 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (-130 at DET)

(907) TEXAS (21-24) at (908) HOUSTON (19-28)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 29-13 (+16.04 units) when he starts in the last 42 DAY game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-120 at HOU)

(909) MIAMI (21-25) at (910) TAMPA BAY (29-15)
Trend: Over the total is 11-3-2 (+7.70 units) when MIA is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIA-TB (o/u at 7)
Trend: TB is 15-5 (+9.50 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-149 vs MIA)

(911) BALTIMORE (20-26) at (912) WASHINGTON (23-23)
Trend: Over the total is 15-6-2 (+8.40 units) in WSH day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 10)

(913) BOSTON (19-26) at (914) ATLANTA (31-15)
Trend: Under the total is 16-5-2 (+10.50 units) in ATL home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-ATL (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: ATL is 3-10 (-13.98 units) versus non-divisional teams with a losing record with starter Grant Holmes since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-163 vs BOS)

(917) NEW YORK-AL (28-18) at (918) NEW YORK-NL (19-26)
Trend: Under the total is 17-7-2 (+9.30 units) in NYY road games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NYY-NYM (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: Freddy Peralta’s teams are 15-2 (+12.06 units) when he starts as a favorite vs AL opponents since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY): NY METS (-121 vs NYY)

(919) MILWAUKEE (26-17) at (920) MINNESOTA (20-26)
Trend: MIL is 14-4 (+13.47 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (PLAY): MILWAUKEE (-1.5 at MIN)
Trend: MIN is 11-4 (+9.05 units) as a +100 or worse underdog at home with starter Bailey Ober in the last 4+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+102 vs MIL)

(921) CHICAGO-NL (29-17) at (922) CHICAGO-AL (23-22)
Trend: CHC is 8-15 (-8.72 units) on the run line in day games this season
Trend Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (-1.5 at CWS)

(923) KANSAS CITY (19-27) at (924) ST LOUIS (27-18)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-1 (+8.80 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-STL (o/u at 9)
Trend: STL is 5-8 (-5.52 units) as a home favorite with starter Andre Pallante since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (FADE): ST LOUIS (-114 vs KC)

(925) SAN FRANCISCO (19-27) at (926) ATHLETICS (23-22)
Trend: Adrian Houser’s teams are 26-14 (+12.94 units) in his last 40 day game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (+124 at ATH)
Trend: Under the total is 18-6-2 (+11.40 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-ATH (o/u at 9.5)

(929) SAN DIEGO (27-18) at (930) SEATTLE (22-25)
Trend: SEA is 8-22 (-13.36 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs SD)

Series #20: Baltimore at Washington, Fri 5/15-Sun 5/17
Trend: Under the total is 18-4 (81.8%, +13.65 units) in the last 22 games between Washington and Baltimore
– The ROI on this trend is 62%
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BAL-WSH (o/u at 10)

Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.

As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.

DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY

DK MLB Betting Splits system #3: Similarly to #2, Majority handle groups have been steady when not too many of them hop on an underdog side since the beginning of the 2024 season, and in fact, the benchmark was 51-66%. These groups have gone 289-312 (48.1%) for a very minimal -1.8 units loss and an ROI of -0.3%. This represents an improvement of 8.2% on the overall numbers, and gives bettors a chance to stay afloat when they go against the grain.
System Matches (CONSIDER ALL): NY YANKEES, MINNESOTA

DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY, ATLANTA, BALTIMORE, CLEVELAND, NY YANKEES, CHICAGO CUBS, MINNESOTA, ST LOUIS, ATHLETICS, LA DODGERS, SEATTLE

DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE

Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles

The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.

NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday, May 21)

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