Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:35 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates (-135, 7)
The Phillies (23-23) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 11-9 in extra innings as +115 road dogs and then winning again yesterday 6-0 as -185 road favorites.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies hand the ball to righty Zack Wheeler (2-0, 2.55 ERA) and the Pirates (24-22) turn to fellow righty Paul Skenes (6-2, 1.98 ERA).
This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as a -130 home favorite and Philadelphia a +110 road dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Pirates to avoid the sweep with their ace on the mound, driving Pittsburgh up from -130 to -135.
At DraftKings, the Pirates are taking in 61% of moneyline bets and 66% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Pirates are receiving only 29% of moneyline bets but 58% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites who have lost the first two games of a series and are looking to avoid the sweep have gone 237-121 (66%) with a 12% ROI since 2017.
Pittsburgh has correlative betting value as a favorite in a low total game (7), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Pirates have the better bats, hitting .250 with a .335 OBP and 229 runs scored compared to the Phillies hitting .235 with a .303 OBP and 193 runs scored. Pittsburgh is hitting .278 at home (1st in MLB) while Philadelphia is hitting .215 on the road (29th).
Skenes has posted a 0.00 ERA in two May starts, allowing zero earned runs in 16 innings pitched (both wins). He is 3-1 with a 1.53 ERA at home.
1:35 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Atlanta Braves (-160, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Braves (31-15) won the opener 3-2 in extra innings, walking off as -150 home favorites. Then the Red Sox (19-26) hung on for a 3-2 win yesterday, cashing as +100 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Red Sox send out righty Brayan Bello (2-4, 6.46 ERA) and the Braves tap fellow righty Grant Holmes (2-1, 4.35 ERA).
This line opened with Atlanta listed as a -150 home favorite and Boston a +130 road dog.
Sharps have laid the wood with the Braves to earn a victory and take the series, driving Atlanta up from -150 to -160, with some shops touching -165.
At DraftKings, the Braves are receiving 84% of moneyline bets and 86% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Atlanta is taking in 80% of moneyline bets and over 90% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a one-way Pro and Joe bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Atlanta has a sizable edge at the plate, hitting .265 with a .443 slugging percentage and 242 runs scored compared to Boston hitting .234 with a .356 slugging percentage and only 166 runs scored.
The Braves are hitting .270 against righties (1st in MLB) while the Red Sox are hitting .223 (28th).
Atlanta is 15-8 at home. Boston is 11-12 on the road.
The Braves are also 11-3 (79%) with a 36% ROI off a loss this year, the 5th most profitable bounce back team in MLB.
Bello is 2-3 with a 7.11 ERA on the road. Meanwhile, Atlanta is 6-1 in Holmes’ last seven starts.
1:40 p.m. ET: New York Yankees at New York Mets (-125, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Yankees (28-18) took the opener 5-2, cashing as -150 road favorites. Then the Mets (19-26) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, coming through as +105 home dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Yankees start righty Elmer Rodriguez (0-1, 5.19 ERA) and the Mets turn to fellow righty Freddy Peralta (3-3, 3.10 ERA).
This line opened with the Yankees listed as a -120 road favorite and the Mets a +100 home dog.
The public is all over the Bronx Bombers, who are taking in 70% of moneyline bets at DraftKings.
However, sharps have gotten down hard on the Mets, flipping the home team from a +100 dog to a -125 favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to favorite” reverse line movement in favor of the Mets to earn a victory and take the series.
At DraftKings, the Mets are taking in only 30% of moneyline bets but 40% of moneyline dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in one of the most heavily bet games of the day.
Fishy buy-low sub .500 home favorites playing a sell-high above .500 team have gone 47-31 (60%) with a 3% ROI this season.
The 22-year-old rookie Rodriguez is making his 3rd career start. He has allowed 5 earned runs in 8.2 innings pitched in his first two starts combined.
Meanwhile, Peralta has posted a 1.64 ERA in two May starts (both Mets wins), allowing only 2 earned runs in 11 innings pitched.
