Today we have a larger than normal Thursday slate of MLB action on tap with 13 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The Everything Guide to Sports Betting by Josh Appelbaum >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
1:35 p.m. ET: Chicago Cubs at Baltimore Orioles (-130, 9.5)
The Cubs (52-40) have taken the first two games of this three-game Interleague series, winning the opener 5-2 as -115 road favorites and then winning again yesterday 9-7 as +110 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Cubs hand the ball to lefty David Peterson (4-7, 6.75 ERA) and the Orioles (42-51) go with fellow southpaw Trevor Rogers (6-7, 4.70 ERA).
This line opened with Baltimore listed as a -125 home favorite and Chicago a +105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Orioles to earn a win and avoid the sweep, pushing Baltimore up from -125 to -130.
At DraftKings, the Orioles are taking in 50% of moneyline bets but a hefty 79% of moneyline dollars, a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split indicating a mostly undecided public but also heavy smart money in favor of the home chalk.
Favorites who have lost the first two games of a three-game series and are looking to avoid the sweep have gone 55-35 (61%) with a 7% ROI this season.
Buy-low below .500 home favorites with line movement in their favor facing an above .500 team are 54-30 (64%) with a 10% ROI this season.
Rogers has pitched well as of late, posting a 1.79 ERA in his last six starts allowing only 7 earned runs in 35.2 innings pitched. Baltimore is 4-2 in his last six starts. He has posted a 3.62 ERA during the day compared to 5.55 during the night.
Meanwhile, Peterson just got lit up in his second start with the Cubs, allowing 10 earned runs in 3.2 innings pitched in a 17-1 blowout loss against the Cardinals.
6:40 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners (-125, 8) at Miami Marlins
The Marlins (51-42) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 6-5 in extras as a -125 home favorite and then winning again yesterday 2-0 as +110 home dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Mariners (47-46) start righty Bryce Miller (4-2, 1.71 ERA) and the Marlins go with fellow righty Janson Junk (3-5, 4.80 ERA).
This line opened with Seattle listed as a -145 road favorite and Miami a +125 home dog.
The public says there’s no way the Mariners get swept and 65% of moneyline bets at DraftKings are laying the chalk with Seattle.
However, despite Seattle receiving nearly two-thirds of tickets we’ve seen the line fall away from the Mariners (-145 to -125) and toward Miami (+125 to +105). This signals sharp reverse line movement in favor of the Fish to complete the sweep.
At Circa, the Marlins are receiving 60% of moneyline bets but a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor from the wiseguys in the desert.
Home dogs off a win who missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Marlins here, are 84-88 (49%) this season but have produced a 6% ROI due to the plus money payouts.
Dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor facing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 52-50 (51%) with a 9% ROI this season.
Miami has the more productive offense, hitting .254 with 426 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .230 with only 377 runs scored. The Marlins are hitting .258 against righties (5th) while the Mariners are hitting .239 (21st).
The Marlins are 30-17 at home this season, the 3rd best home record in MLB. Meanwhile, the Mariners are 20-26 on the road.
7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-135, 8.5) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers (58-34) won the first three games of this five game series, taking the opener 4-3 as -120 road favorites then sweeping Tuesday’s doubleheader 4-3 as -225 road favorites and 10-2 as -105 road dogs. Then the Cardinals (48-43) bounced back with a 5-1 win yesterday, coming through as a +125 home dog.
In tonight’s series finale, the Brewers send out righty Logan Thompson (2-1, 2.74 ERA) and the Cardinals counter with fellow righty Andre Pallante (10-5, 3.60 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -125 road favorite and St. Louis a +105 home dog.
Sharps have jumped on the Brewers laying short chalk, pushing Milwaukee up from -125 to -135.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is taking in 66% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 127-75 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Milwaukee has the better bats, hitting .255 with 468 runs scored compared to St. Louis hitting .245 with 416 runs scored.
Pallante has gone 4-5 with a 4.47 ERA at home compared to 6-0 with a 2.33 ERA on the road.
The Brewers are 29-15 on the road this season, the best road record in MLB, including 26-9 as a road favorite.
Milwaukee is 7-2 against St. Louis this season.
