Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Thursday, May 28, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 19-3 (+15.27 units) in his last 22 starts against below .500 teams
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 381-420 but for +95.98 units and an ROI of 12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+119 at TEX)
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2068-1960 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.68 units (ROI: -6.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-162 vs MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+144 at PIT), BALTIMORE (-131 vs TOR)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1%, and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 13-13 for -2.70 units and an ROI of -10.4%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-157 vs MIN)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 34-46 for -15.61 units and an ROI of -19.5%!
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO CUBS (+144 at PIT)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 62-76 for +7.28 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Match (FADE): MINNESOTA (+130 at CWS)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce back in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 106-129 for -11.68 units.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): MINNESOTA (+130 at CWS), TORONTO (+109 at BAL), CHICAGO CUBS (+144 at PIT)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 32-40 for -5.86 units and an ROI of -8.1%.
System Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-131 vs TOR)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #1: Teams starting a new series and riding at least a three-game winning streak are 473-377 for +41.10 units and an ROI of 4.8% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-131 vs TOR)
MLB Series Betting System #5: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a very good investment in the final game of a series if ending a road trip, going 381-420 but for +95.98 units and an ROI of 12% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+119 at TEX)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 167-66 for +19.11 units and an ROI of 8.2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PITTSBURGH vs CHC (-175 CURRENTLY)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, it doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2068-1960 (51.3%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -267.68 units. This represents an ROI of -6.6%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-162 vs MIN), CHICAGO CUBS (+144 at PIT), BALTIMORE (-131 vs TOR)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2094-2667 (44%) for -270.22 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET), MINNESOTA (+134 at CWS), ATLANTA (-137 at BOS), TORONTO (+109 at BAL)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams who lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record for 188-223 SU record for +38.36 units and an ROI of 9.3% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): MINNESOTA (+134 at CWS)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 527-601 SU but for +73.77 units (ROI: 6.5%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 177-196 SU for +34.22 units in the last 373 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET), MINNESOTA (+134 at CWS)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITE (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: ATLANTA -137 (+40 diff)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Match: MIN-CWS OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(953) LOS ANGELES-AL (21-35) at (954) DETROIT (22-34)
Trend: Grayson Rodriguez’s teams are 19-3 (+15.27 units) in his last 22 starts against below .500 teams
Trend Match (PLAY): LA ANGELS (+113 at DET)
(955) MINNESOTA (27-29) at (956) CHICAGO-AL (28-27)
Trend: Over the total is 10-4 (+5.60 units) when CWS is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): MIN-CWS (o/u at 7.5)
(957) TORONTO (27-29) at (958) BALTIMORE (26-30)
Trend: Patrick Corbin’s teams are 10-14 (-3.55 units) when he starts as a night underdog between line range of -105 to +120 in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+109 at BAL)
Trend: Chris Bassitt’s teams are 17-19 (-3.59 units) when he starts vs AL East opponents in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): BALTIMORE (-131 vs TOR)
(959) HOUSTON (25-32) at (960) TEXAS (25-30)
Trend: Under the total is 16-6-2 (+9.40 units) in TEX home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Nathan Eovaldi’s teams are 19-4 (+11.80 units) when he starts at home vs opponents with a < 48% win pct in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): TEXAS (-143 vs HOU)
(961) ATLANTA (37-19) at (962) BOSTON (23-31)
Trend: ATL is 17-6 (+10.08 units) vs LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-137 at BOS)
Trend: Under the total is 17-8-2 (+8.20 units) in BOS home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): ATL-BOS (o/u at 7)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:45 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): ATLANTA (-137 at BOS)
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE (-131 vs TOR), PITTSBURGH (-175 vs CHC)
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article entitled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple tomorrow, May 29)
