Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Tuesday, May 19, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
* Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 515-590 SU but for +69.80 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 172-189 SU for +34.96 units in the last 361 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+124 at PHI), TORONTO (+114 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+113 at LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at AZ)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4-2 (+8.45 units) in the last 19 games when starter Dylan Cease is a road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
* Since the start of the 2023 regular season, teams on two-game winning streaks but having worse SM Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 704-768 for -69.11 units (ROI: -4.7%).
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-122 vs. SF)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%. The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices typically aren’t that high. It should be a part of your handicapping routine. For 2026, these teams are off to a modest 88-65 start for +1.63 units and an ROI of +1.1%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY METS (-143 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (-118 at CHC), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at AZ)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a play-against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 8-10 for -4.2 units and an ROI of -23.3%.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): CINCINNATI (+124 at PHI)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another play-against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 30-37 for -9.84 units and an ROI of -14.7%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TEXAS (-110 at COL), SEATTLE (-156 vs. CWS), SAN DIEGO (+135 vs. LAD)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and an elite starting pitcher with a SM rating of +20 or more went 352-210 for +30.55 units, when not matched against the same in the 2025 season. This represents an ROI of +5.4%. For 2026, these teams are off to a slow 99-71 start for -6.84 units and an ROI of -4%.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): CLEVELAND (-167 at DET), NY METS (-143 at WSH), BOSTON (-131 at KC), MILWAUKEE (-118 at CHC)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid FADE angle. For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 51-62 for +9.09 units. I still don’t expect this to last long.
System Matches (FADE ALL): HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), COLORADO (-109 vs. TEX), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at SEA)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle is a frequent and profitable system in which the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings plays as an underdog (or pick-’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings for the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790 but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below historical standards (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounce-back in 2025, with a season record of 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%. The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 91-104 for -2.18 units. However, it did get back +8.47 units since the start of last week alone.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): PITTSBURGH (-101 at STL), TEXAS (-110 at COL), ATHLETICS (+113 at LAA), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at AZ), SAN DIEGO (+135 vs. LAD)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. In the 2023-2025 regular seasons, on two-game winning streaks, the teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup have gone 648-696 for -59.7 units, an ROI of -4.4%. For 2026, they are off to a 56-72 start for -9.41 units (ROI -7.4%).
System Match (FADE): ARIZONA (-122 vs. SF)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 47-54 for -1.53 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (+124 at PHI), DETROIT (+138 vs. CLE), CHICAGO CUBS (-102 vs. MIL)
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 447-425 (51.3%) for +23.77 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 2.7%.
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+119 vs. NYM)
“9” is a MAGIC RUN NUMBER for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road, if they scored nine runs or more in the previous game, they are posting a winning record at 2,051-1,951 (51.2%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -274.53 units. This represents an ROI of -6.9%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TAMPA BAY (-120 vs. BAL), MIAMI (+114 vs. ATL), NY METS (-143 at WSH), MILWAUKEE (-118 at CHC), ARIZONA (-125 vs. SF)
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
Consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last game. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,074-2,645 (43.9%) for -270.06 units and an ROI of -5.7% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-101 at STL), ATHLETICS (+113 at LAA), ATLANTA (-137 at MIA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at AZ), LA DODGERS (-163 at SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 626-516 (54.8%) record in the next game when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +29.82 units, for an ROI of 2.6%.
System Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (-119 vs. PIT)
Poor pitching on the season = good bet as underdog?
Teams that lost their last game after giving up 15+ hits and allow >= 4.6 RPG on the season have surprisingly been good wagers in the next game as underdogs in the -109 to +215 line range, sporting a record of 187-220 SU record for +40.26 units and an ROI of 9.9% since the start of the 2020 season.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-101 at TB), WASHINGTON (+119 vs. NYM)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #4:
Early season (March/April/May) road underdogs between +100 and +160 coming off a loss have gone 515-590 SU but for +69.80 units (ROI: 6.3%) since the start of the 2021 season (including 172-189 SU for +34.96 units in the last 361 divisional games).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): HOUSTON (+114 at MIN), CINCINNATI (+124 at PHI), TORONTO (+114 at NYY), ATHLETICS (+113 at LAA), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (+129 at SEA), SAN FRANCISCO (+104 at AZ)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Winning Streak Betting System #3:
The teams with some of the best value in looking to extend winning streaks are actually those that don’t typically score a lot of runs. Teams on winning streaks of five games and scoring less than 4.5 RPG are 184-152 (+10.26 units, ROI: 3.1%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-149 vs. CIN)
Winning Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on winning streaks of five games or more and playing against non-divisional league opponents are 247-165 in their last 412 tries (+35.07 units, ROI: 8.5%).
System Match (PLAY): PHILADELPHIA (-149 vs. CIN)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOG (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Match: DETROIT +138 (+32)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: PHILADELPHIA -149 (+18), TAMPA BAY -120 (+17), MINNESOTA -137 (+16), ST LOUIS -119 (+15)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
System Matches: BAL-TB OVER 7.5 (+0.7), CIN-PHI OVER 8.5 (+0.5), TOR-NYY OVER 8.5 (+0.5), HOU-MIN OVER 8.5 (+0.5), PIT-STL OVER 8 (+0.5)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ATLANTA (32-16) at (902) MIAMI (22-26)
Trend: ATL is 14-4 (+9.70 units) vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATLANTA (-137 at MIA)
Trend: MIA is 0-4 (-4.00 units) at home vs. Atlanta with starter Braxton Garrett in the last 5+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): MIAMI (+114 vs. ATL)
(905) NEW YORK-NL (21-26) at (906) WASHINGTON (23-25)
Trend: NYM is 2-10 (-8.61 units) on the run line vs. left-handed starters this season
Trend Match (FADE): NY METS (-1.5 at WSH)
(909) PITTSBURGH (24-23) at (910) ST LOUIS (27-19)
Trend: PIT is 12-25 (-9.14 units) vs. teams with a >58% winning percentage with starter Mitch Keller in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-101 at STL)
(911) SAN FRANCISCO (20-28) at (912) ARIZONA (23-23)
Trend: Under the total is 18-8-2 (+9.20 units) when SF is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SF-AZ (o/u at 8.5)
Trend: SF is 3-7 (-3.77 units) versus divisional opponents with starter Landen Roupp
Trend Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (+101 at AZ)
Trend: AZ is 9-5 (+2.67 units) as a home favorite with starter Ryne Nelson since the start of the 2024 season
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ARIZONA (-122 vs. SF)
(913) LOS ANGELES-NL (29-19) at (914) SAN DIEGO (29-18)
Trend: Under the total is 18-10 (+7.00 units) in San Diego night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAD-SD (o/u at 8.5)
(917) BALTIMORE (21-27) at (918) TAMPA BAY (31-15)
Trend: Tampa Bay is 17-5 (+11.50 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (-120 vs. BAL)
(919) TORONTO (21-26) at (920) NEW YORK-AL (29-19)
Trend: TOR is just 8-15 (-10.01 units) in road games this season
Trend Match (FADE): TORONTO (+114 at NYY)
Trend: Under the total is 13-4-2 (+8.45 units) in the last 19 games when starter Dylan Cease is a road underdog
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): TOR-NYY (o/u at 8.5)
(921) BOSTON (20-27) at (922) KANSAS CITY (20-28)
Trend: Under the total is 11-2-1 (+8.80 units) when KC is a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BOS-KC (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: Bailey Falter’s teams are 15-8 (+6.88 units) when he starts in home night games in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): KANSAS CITY (+109 vs. BOS)
(925) ATHLETICS (23-24) at (926) LOS ANGELES-AL (17-31)
Trend: The Athletics are 20-7 (+10.66 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ATHLETICS (+1.5 at LAA)
(927) CHICAGO-AL (24-23) at (928) SEATTLE (23-26)
Trend: Seattle is 9-22 (-12.00 units) on the run line in night games this season
Trend Match (FADE): SEATTLE (-1.5 vs. CWS)
Trend: Seattle is 10-4 (+5.65 units) vs. AL Central opponents with starter Bryce Miller in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-156 vs. CWS)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #19: Toronto Blue Jays at New York Yankees, Mon 5/18-Thu 5/21
Trend: Favorites are just 29-45 (39.2%, -34.53 units) in the last 74 games between Toronto and NY Yankees
— The ROI on this trend is -46.7%
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-137 vs. TOR)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 11:40 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1,074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Match (FADE): TEXAS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: A unique system has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Match (FADE): SEATTLE
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course, it is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): TEX-COL
Team-Specific Momentum-Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next one Thursday, May 21)
