Today’s MLB Betting Trends:
The following MLB betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the MLB games of Wednesday, July 8, 2026. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each day’s MLB board.
AJ’s Angles
These are the top MLB betting trends and systems for today’s games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings in the last game have gone 50-23 SU for +13.43 units (ROI: 18.4%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-136 vs HOU)
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-36 SU for +21.39 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at BAL)
Trend: Over the total is 13-2 (+10.70 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL opponents with starter Michael King since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SD (o/u at 8)
MLB Bullpen Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the weekly update series on handicapping MLB teams using Steve Makinen’s bullpen strength ratings.
Back teams with both a better SM bullpen rating AND starting pitcher rating if that team has an even or worse record
In the 2025 regular season, I found that teams with an even or worse record on the season but showing a better Steve Makinen Bullpen Rating AND starting pitcher rating have gone 207-139 for +48.41 units, and an ROI of +14.0%! The two-year record on this angle is now 396-266 for +83.41 units and an ROI of 12.6%. This has proven to be a very good foundational angle to follow since the prices aren’t that high typically. It should be a part of your handicapping routine going forward. For 2026, these teams are teetering around the profitability line at 147-118 for -5.79 units and an ROI of -2.2%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SAN DIEGO (-143 vs AZ), DETROIT (-137 vs ATH), NY YANKEES (-101 at TB), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), NY METS (-180 vs KC)
STARTER/BULLPEN CORRELATION SYSTEMS
Teams with elite starting pitchers (SM rating higher than 25) and a NEGATIVE SM team bullpen rating in a game went 65-69 for -22.93 units when not matched up against similar in 2025. This represents an ROI of -17.1% and it stands as proof of my belief that the strength of a team’s bullpen has to be accounted for in all games. This is a go against angle, which can often prove as or more valuable than systems that suggest backing teams. For 2026, these teams are 33-28 for –4.54 units (ROI -7.4%).
System Matches (SLIGHT FADE ALL): CINCINNATI (-143 vs PHI), SAN FRANCISCO (+101 vs TOR)
Teams with strong bullpens (SM rating of 10 or higher) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse wound up 184-226 for -38.36 units for the season when not matched up against the same. This represents an ROI of -9.4%. This is another angle that shows that good bullpens are better support for good starting pitching. This is another go against angle that does well. To start the 2026 season, these teams are again struggling, 49-87 for -42.25 units and an ROI of -31.1%! Fading these teams is producing better than ever before.
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA DODGERS (-246 vs COL), MIAMI (+108 vs SEA)
Teams with poor bullpens (NEGATIVE SM rating) and a poor starting pitcher with a SM rating of -10 or worse went 148-267 for -34.71 units when not matched up against the same in 2025. This represented an ROI of -8.4%, another solid fade angle! For 2026, they are off to a rare positive start, 101-127 for +5.31 units. This is lasting longer than I would expect, however, it has lost over 4.5 units the last four weeks and is headed in its usual direction.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PHILADELPHIA (+119 at CIN), COLORADO (+199 at LAD), MINNESOTA (-131 vs CLE), KANSAS CITY (+148 at NYM)
Back big favorites (-190 or more) with better bullpen ratings and winning percentage >=19% higher than opponent
A 2023 mid-season bullpen ratings discovery found that some big favorites do prove worthy of backing consistently, regardless of the high prices, because the games are absolute mismatches. After a 133-43 finish for +25 units in the 2025 season, this angle will take a three-year record of 385-146 for +33.01 units (ROI 6.2%) into the 2026 campaign. The 2026 teams meeting this criteria are 33-20 but for -16.60 units so far.
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 vs COL)
Overpriced better bullpen without big starting pitcher edge angle was 2023 regular season’s most lucrative system
In combining starting pitcher differences in looking at games with -190 favorites or higher, there was a huge opportunity to be selective in fading overpriced favorites. Specifically, when the starting pitcher difference between the better Steve Makinen rated bullpen team was less than 20, those big favorites have gone 242-160, but for -117.36 units in the 2023-25 regular seasons. That represents an ROI of -29.2%, very solid results. In 2025, these teams were measurably better but still lost -1.48 units for the season. The 2026 teams are off to a 23-15 start for -10.45 units, and an ROI of -27.5%.
System Match (FADE): LA DODGERS (-246 vs COL)
Better bullpen underdog teams were solid wagers all season long
Perhaps the most popular angle, a frequent and profitable system has arisen when the team with the better SM Bullpen Ratings played as an underdog (or pick ’em). Money line underdog teams with better bullpen ratings in the 2022-23 seasons were 701-790, but for +46.27 units. The 2024 season was below standards historically (lost -26.45 units), but we experienced a major bounceback in 2025, as the season record finished at 464-488 for +59.39 units, ROI +6.2%! The 2026 season is off to a slower start, 176-233 for -37.75 units. This ROI of -9.2% is still advantageous to blind wagering, just not what we’ve come to expect at all.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): ATLANTA (-101 at PIT), PHILADELPHIA (+119 at CIN), NY YANKEES (-101 at TB), BOSTON (-105 at CWS), CLEVELAND (+108 at MIN), LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX), CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at BAL), HOUSTON (+113 at WSH)
Better bullpen small favorite teams in -111 to -126 range are thriving in 2026
So far in 2026, small favorite teams in the -111 to -126 line range with a SM Bullpen Rating edge have fared quite well. Last season, this was about a -6% ROI angle. However, there is some foundation to the system in that with teams this closely matched together by the oddsmakers, it can often be good bullpen performance that separates the teams. For 2026 so far, these teams are 154-99 for +36.25 units, an ROI of +14.3%.
System Match (PLAY): TORONTO (-122 at SF)
Worse bullpen teams continue to struggle in extending winning streaks
I have found that fading teams with a lesser SM bullpen ratings that were looking to extend winning streaks is also a strong strategy. Worse bullpen teams on 3+ game winning streaks finished the last three regular seasons with a record of 293-318 for -26.2 units. ROI on that was -4.3%. This has been a very consistent angle historically, and the 2026 results so far show a record of 49-66 for -17.26 units and a solid ROI of -15%.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH (-120 vs ATL), KANSAS CITY (+148 at NYM), MINNESOTA (-131 vs CLE)
Worse bullpen teams can fall into lengthy losing streaks
Around midseason of 2025, I went back and found that teams with worse Steve Makinen Bullpen Ratings in a matchup and having lost at least their last three games had proven to be a nice fade system. For the full 2025 campaign, they wound up 195-269 for -29.1 units, an ROI of -6.3%. We will continue to track this angle in 2026, and it is now 92-93 for +12.18 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+114 at DET), ST LOUIS (+123 vs MIL)
MLB Series Systems
The following systems are from an article posted on April 3, 2025, regarding MLB game-by-game betting, particularly the first and last games of a series.
MLB Series Betting System #4: Road underdogs of +101 to +187 have been a reasonably good investment in the final game of a series, going 764-989 but for +35.22 units and an ROI of 2% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): HOUSTON (+113 at WSH)
MLB Series Betting System #9: Big home favorites of -180 or more closing out a divisional series have been a solid investment lately, going 169-68 for +16.61 units and an ROI of 7% since the start of the 2022 season
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 vs COL)
MLB Series Betting System #12: Home favorites/pick ’ems playing in the last game of an interleague series, lost their last game and facing an opponent who exhausted their bullpen for 5+ innings last game have gone 50-23 SU for +13.43 units (ROI: 18.4%) in the last six seasons
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (-136 vs HOU)
*WATCH FOR SAN FRANCISCO vs TOR (-101 CURRENTLY)*
MLB Extreme Stats Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB Extreme Stats Systems, detailing betting systems for teams based upon noteworthy stats they accumulated in their previous game
Home teams off blowout losses are solid bets to rebound versus that same opponent
Teams playing at home against the same team after a blowout loss of seven runs or more have been solid wagers over the last 7+ seasons, going 463-449 (50.8%) for +12.24 units of profit. This represents an ROI of 1.3%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 vs BOS), ST LOUIS (+123 vs MIL)
“9” is a magic run number for fading a team in the next game
Since 2018, doesn’t matter if the team is playing at home or on the road. If they scored nine runs or more in the previous contest, they are posting a winning record at 2,149-2,024 (51.5%), but oddsmaker overpricing has resulted in a loss of -260.54 units. This represents an ROI of -6.2%, which is significant in the grand scheme of baseball daily betting.
System Matches (FADE ALL): PITTSBURGH, KANSAS CITY, NY METS, MILWAUKEE, TORONTO
Road teams that didn’t score well last game are a bad bet in the next outing
You’re going to want to consider fading teams playing on the road that scored two runs or fewer in their last contest. They have proven to be bankroll-busting options over their last 4+ seasons. These road teams are just 2,174-2,746 (44.2%) for -267.82 units and an ROI of -5.4% since the start of the 2019 season.
System Matches (FADE ALL): ATHLETICS (+123 at DET), CLEVELAND (+108 at MIN), ARIZONA (+119 at SD)
Watch for home teams that didn’t record an extra-base hit
Home teams that failed to record an extra-base hit in their previous game bounce back with a 652-545 (54.4%) record in the next contest when at home in that same time span. The profit there is +19.55 units, for an ROI of 1.6%.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE (-126 vs CHC), CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 vs BOS)
Unusually poor pitching performances provide motivation for hosts
Home teams coming off unusually bad team pitching performances where they allowed 16 hits or more in a game are on a run of 348-313 (52.6%) for +18.92 units and an ROI of 2.9% since the start of the 2018 season.
System Match (PLAY): NY METS (-180 vs KC)
Lucky teams can’t escape bad pitching
Teams who won their last game despite their bullpen blowing a save have gone 104-150 SU (-21.93 units, ROI: -8.6%) as underdogs in the follow-up contest since May 2024.
System Match (FADE): MIAMI (+109 vs SEA)
Divisional blown saves lead to bounce-back
Teams who lost their previous game to a divisional rival from blowing a save have gone 168-91 SU (+41.22 units, ROI: 15.9%) as a pick ’em or favorite in the same-series follow-up game since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS (-246 vs COL)
MLB Team Strength Systems
The following handicapping information details betting systems for teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.
MLB Team Strength Betting System #6:
Having at least 50 games under their belt for the year, interleague plus-money underdogs who have a 10% or higher win percentage than their opponent have gone 49-36 SU for +21.39 units (ROI: 25.2%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at BAL)
MLB Streak Systems
The following systems and qualifying plays detail different systems for betting teams on winning or losing streaks.
Losing Streak Betting System #1:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more are on a 42-106 skid (-39.96 units, ROI -27%) in the next game when playing as road underdogs.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #2:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and winning fewer than 43% of their games on the season are on a 77-151 skid (-42.60 units, ROI: -18.7%).
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #3:
Strangely, teams on losing streaks of seven games or more tend to fare best against their best opponents. Against teams winning 61.5% of their games or more, these teams on losing skids have gone 20-25 (+8.79 units, ROI: 19.5%) while against all other opponents with lesser records than 61.5% winning percentage, they are just 102-185 (-63.80 units, ROI: -22.2%) since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #4:
Teams on losing streaks of seven games or more and playing against divisional opponents are just 44-80 in their last 124 tries (-19.73 units, ROI: -15.9%). Divisional foes love to stomp on their rivals when they are down.
System Match (FADE): LA ANGELS (+129 at TEX)
Losing Streak Betting System #7:
Teams that have lost their last four games but are getting reasonably good pitching during the skid have been solid wagers in game #5, as those that allowed 6.0 RPG or fewer during the streak are on a 308-320 run (+8.74 units, ROI: 1.4%).
System Match (SLIGHT PLAY): ST LOUIS (+123 vs MIL)
Winning Streak Betting System #10:
Oddly, teams that score the most runs per game are the best to fade to see their four-game winning streak reach five. Teams scoring 5.0 or more runs per game and riding a four-game winning streak are just 165-168 (-72.95 units, ROI: -21.9%) in the next contest since the start of the 2021 season.
System Match (FADE): MILWAUKEE (-148 at STL)
Today’s MLB Strength Ratings
The following MLB betting trends are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the MLB tab on VSiN.com.
Today’s UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLEVELAND +108 (+16 diff), SAN FRANCISCO +101 (+15)
Today’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES (15 points or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: DETROIT -137 (+29 diff), CHICAGO WHITE SOX -114 (+22)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: CLE-MIN OVER 8 (+0.5), LAA-TEX OVER 7.5 (+0.5)
Today’s BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER (0.5 runs or more) according to the Makinen Strength Ratings projections:
Ratings Matches: HOU-WSH UNDER 10 (-1.1), ATL-PIT UNDER 9.5 (-1.0), CHC-BAL UNDER 10 (-0.9), COL-LAD UNDER 10 (-0.8), ATH-DET UNDER 9 (-0.8)
Team/Pitcher Situational MLB Betting Trend Spots
The following situational MLB betting trends and qualifying plays look at how today’s teams and starting pitchers have performed in similar spots.
(901) ATLANTA (52-38) at (902) PITTSBURGH (47-45)
Trend: Over the total is 37-22 (+12.80 units) when PIT is a ML favorite this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ATL-PIT (o/u at 9.5)
(905) MILWAUKEE (58-33) at (906) ST LOUIS (47-43)
Trend: STL is 36-17 (+11.93 units) on the run line as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (PLAY): ST LOUIS (+1.5 vs MIL)
(907) COLORADO (38-55) at (908) LOS ANGELES-NL (60-33)
Trend: Under the total is 27-18-1 (+7.20 units) in LAD home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): COL-LAD (o/u at 10)
(909) ARIZONA (45-46) at (910) SAN DIEGO (45-46)
Trend: AZ is 14-27 (-9.50 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): ARIZONA (+119 at SD)
Trend: Over the total is 13-2 (+10.70 units) when SD is favored within -115 to -165 line range against NL opponents with starter Michael King since start of 2024 season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): AZ-SD (o/u at 8)
(913) NEW YORK-AL (50-41) at (914) TAMPA BAY (53-36)
Trend: Gerrit Cole’s teams are 12-11 (-6.44 units) when he starts vs Tampa Bay in the last 6+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): NY YANKEES (-101 at TB)
Trend: TB is 30-15 (+20.04 units) on the run line at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+1.5 vs NYY)
(915) BOSTON (41-48) at (916) CHICAGO-AL (47-43)
Trend: CWS is 28-15 (+15.12 units) at home this season
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO WHITE SOX (-114 vs BOS)
(917) CLEVELAND (47-45) at (918) MINNESOTA (45-47)
Trend: Over the total is 32-15-5 (+15.50 units) in MIN night games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CLE-MIN (o/u at 8)
(919) LOS ANGELES-AL (36-56) at (920) TEXAS (46-45)
Trend: Over the total is 16-8-1 (+7.20 units) when LAA faces LH starters this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): LAA-TEX (o/u at 7.5)
Trend: MacKenzie Gore’s teams are 8-17 (-14.46 units) when he starts in home games vs opponents with losing records in last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (FADE): TEXAS (-156 vs LAA)
(923) CHICAGO-NL (51-40) at (924) BALTIMORE (42-50)
Trend: Colin Rea has been good in the -120 to +135 line range (28-15 record, +14.35 units) in the last few seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO CUBS (+105 at BAL)
Trend: BAL is 37-17 (+15.85 units) in Dean Kremer’s L54 Home game starts
Trend Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-126 vs CHC)
(925) SEATTLE (47-45) at (926) MIAMI (50-42)
Trend: SEA is 25-11 (+7.93 units) as a road favorite of -125 or higher with George Kirby in the last 3+ seasons
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-131 at MIA)
(927) HOUSTON (46-48) at (928) WASHINGTON (47-46)
Trend: Over the total is 31-14-2 (+15.60 units) in WSH home games this season
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): HOU-WSH (o/u at 10)
(929) KANSAS CITY (38-54) at (930) NEW YORK-NL (38-54)
Trend: KC is 18-28 (-6.05 units) as a ML underdog this season
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (+148 at NYM)
Top Head-to-Head Series MLB Betting Trends
Series #32: Cleveland at Minnesota, Tue 7/7-Thu 7/9
Trend: CLEVELAND has dominated Minnesota in recent seasons of head-to-head play, going 37-17 (68.5%, +20.68 units).
– The ROI on this trend is 38.3%
Trend Match (PLAY): CLEVELAND (+108 at MIN)
Strategies Using MLB DraftKings Betting Splits Data
One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals.
In an article published on the VSiN.com website prior to opening day, Steve Makinen outlined 10 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that were developed in the 2023/2024 season. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for today’s games as of 10:30 a.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until first pitch for best usage.
As a general rule, acknowledging the approximate -8.5% 3-year returns on all side majorities, and -3.4% on total majorities, if adopting the use of the betting splits this season, opt to fade majorities unless shown otherwise in one of the systems below to be a profitable follow angle.
DK MLB Betting Splits system #1: When 90% or more of the handle was on the home side of an MLB money line wager since the beginning of the 2023 season, this “super” majority group has fared quite well, going 282-127 (68.9%) for +27.68 units and an ROI of +6.8%. This obviously beats the overall majority handle ROI return by over 15%. If you see 90% or more of the handle backing a host in an MLB game this season, it’s a solid bet to follow it.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, TAMPA BAY, NY METS, CINCINNATI, LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #4: Majority handle bettors have been sound over the last three seasons when getting behind huge home favorites of -250 or higher. This group is 300-89 (77.1%) for +40 units and an ROI of 10.3%. This is a nice rate of return and a tremendous winning percentage, but with prices like this, things can turn fast, so consider the risk when backing.
System Match (PLAY): LA DODGERS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #6: Majority handle bettors have been at their worst overall in interleague games since the start of 2023, going 1074-957 (52.9%) but for -215.64 units and an ROI of -10.6%. This is over two full percentage points worse for return on a huge sample of games and an indication that bettors have trouble gauging the strengths/motivations of the teams when playing unfamiliar opponents.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SAN FRANCISCO, BALTIMORE, SEATTLE, WASHINGTON, NY METS
DK MLB Betting Splits system #7: There has been a unique system that has developed since the start of last season when majority handle betting groups backed home favorites with fewer wins on the season. This is a terrible scenario for bettors, as they are just 360-329 (52.2%) for -118.41 units and an atrocious ROI of -17.2%. There’s a lot of common sense to this not doing well, since the lesser team is being favored just because it is at home or has a better starting pitcher working.
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, CINCINNATI, MINNESOTA
DK MLB Betting Splits system #10: Over the last season-and-a-half, the average posted total in MLB games has been just about 8.5. In games with posted totals higher than that (9 or higher), majority bettors have done quite well when they’ve had the discipline to opt for Under the total. This group has gone 356-320 (52.6%) since the start of the 2023 season for +26.1 units and an ROI of +3.9%. This is again another rare positive spot for a high volume of games, and of course is built on the foundation of going against the grain.
System Match (PLAY UNDER): KC-NYM
Team Specific Momentum Building/Letdown Angles
The following MLB betting trends and qualifying plays are from the article titled MLB post-rivalry series betting opportunities.
NO QUALIFYING MOMENTUM ANGLES TODAY (next couple Friday, July 10)
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