MLB Best Bets Today July 8
Normally Wednesdays are split schedules in MLB with some day games and some night games, but the lone getaway day game today is in San Francisco, as the rest of the slate begins at 6:35 p.m. ET or later. The All-Star Break is looming after this weekend and everybody has to be excited about a break, as we’ve had some aces struggling and some extreme heat to deal with. But, we still have five more days of games before we get to that point, so there’s money to be made.
I’ll be posting my daily best bets Monday-Saturday with a Sunday Night Baseball preview on Sunday, as all the day games make it tough to get something out with lead time out here in Las Vegas. All lines are from DraftKings and are current at the time of publish. Please take the initiative to SHOP AROUND for the best odds. It matters. A lot.
One new offering this baseball season is our Opta AI Player Prop Projections. They are for VSiN Pro Subscribers only, so you can check out our current offers here. Zachary Cohen will be using those projections and his own handicapping to write up MLB player props.
Greg Peterson will have his best bets posted the night before and you can also check out his daily lines to see what looks to be off-market. Steve Makinen has also released his updated Bullpen Betting Systems and DraftKings Splits Systems, plus he’ll have a daily analytics report.
Feel free to use my opinions and thoughts, as well as our suite of MLB Betting Tools, including the DraftKings and Circa Betting Splits, Steve Makinen’s Daily Ratings, Greg Peterson’s Daily Lines, the 1st 5 Innings Analyzer, and Umpire Stats. Check out our MLB tools powered by Ballpark Pal: Strikeout Projections, Park Factors, and YRFI Report.
Here are the MLB best bets today for July 8:
Athletics vs. Tigers Prediction
Pick: Under 9 (-102)
Jeffrey Springs has to be hoping for better fortunes here as he heads to spacious Comerica Park for this start against Troy Melton and the Tigers. Springs has some simply atrocious numbers of late, as he has an 8.45 ERA with a 6.06 xERA and an 8.15 FIP over his last 38.1 innings of work. However, only three of those eight starts have been on the road and two of them that are “home” starts came in Las Vegas.
Springs has a 54.2% LOB% in that span while also allowing an outrageous 27.1% HR/FB%. That’s 16 HR in his last eight starts. He’s allowed 16 HR in 54.1 innings at home, including the two Vegas starts, and eight homers in 39 innings on the road, where he’s held opposing batters to a .222 BA and a .289 OBP. Comerica Park is not a great home run park with its large outfield dimensions, so hopefully this is a better venue for Springs. He allowed three runs on just three hits in 4.1 innings in San Francisco two starts ago and my hope would be that’s a baseline for this start.
If so, we’ll be in good shape because Melton has been dealing. He gave up four runs on solo homers to the Twins back on June 9 and then got some extended rest. Since then, he’s allowed two runs on five hits in 18.1 innings in starts against the White Sox, Astros, and Yankees. He’s struck out 18 and walked four. Melton has only allowed a total of 10 runs on 25 hits in his seven starts this season and has been able to provide some length as well, averaging better than six innings per start.
The A’s are 27th in road wOBA this season at .294, slashing .229/.304/.358. Detroit is about a league average offense at home. Both bullpens are pretty okay heading into this game. The A’s also have a lot of players dealing with various ailments, so they’re a team looking ahead to the Break.
Astros vs. Nationals Prediction
Pick: Astros 1st 5 Team Total Over 2.5 Runs (+124)
Going to take a shot here fading Foster Griffin, who has been magnificent of late and hasn’t allowed more than one run in a start since May 30. Nationals Park is a launching pad in the summertime and we do have a total of 10 here with the Nationals not an overwhelming favorite, so the expectation seems to be that the Astros will do at least something with the sticks.
Griffin has allowed 13 of his 17 homers to righties, who boast a .234/.294/.401 slash and a .305 wOBA. It’s not much, but it’s way better than what lefties have done. Also, if you parse that down a little more, righties at Nationals Park are slashing .261/.323/.470 against Griffin with a .344 wOBA. We know that Houston is a very right-handed-heavy lineup and so those splits are at least somewhat encouraging given what looks to be a tough matchup on paper.
Griffin’s .256 BABIP against RHP should be on the rise and his 2.87 ERA with a 4.06 xERA and a 4.28 FIP point towards negative regression on the horizon. Over the last 14 days, Houston is only batting .225 against LHP, but that’s with a .235 BABIP and a 13.5% K% in 96 PA, so they’ve gotten unlucky. Hopefully there’s a course correction with that and also with Griffin tonight.
Red Sox vs. White Sox Prediction
Pick: Red Sox -105
Back at it today fading the White Sox with a left-hander on the mound. This time, it’s southpaw Jake Bennett, who gets to follow Payton Tolle’s lead from last night of six shutout innings with two hits, a walk, and six strikeouts. The 6-foot-6 Bennett has a 3.10 ERA with a 2.84 xERA and a 3.14 FIP over his seven starts covering 40.2 innings of work. He’s an extreme ground ball guy with a 52.2% GB% coming from more of a sidearm arm slot with his big frame and Extension. I think he’s a tough guy to see for the first time and the White Sox are doing that tonight.
Since allowing eight runs over two starts to the Rays, Bennett has allowed just five runs on 15 hits in his last four outings with just two walks and 23 strikeouts. That includes six shutout innings in Denver. He’s successfully limited hard contact with a 35.6% Hard Hit% and a 6.8% Barrel% over 118 batted ball events and has only allowed three home runs.
After another paltry performance yesterday, the White Sox are 27th in wOBA at .268 over the last 14 days with a .229/.286/.325 slash against lefties. They’re trying to utilize platoon bats off the bench, but they’re simply taking better hitters out of the lineup just to avoid L-on-L situations. It hasn’t really been working out.
Boston does face a tougher customer today in Davis Martin, as they did a good job against Noah Schultz yesterday. Martin only lasted 3.1 innings last time out against the light-hitting Guardians because he walked five batters. His last two starts have been his lowest of the season from a Stuff+ standpoint, as it does seem like he’s wearing down a bit as the All-Star Break approaches. He only has a 90 Stuff+ for the season with a 95 Location+ and an 87 Pitching+, which are all well below average.
His last two starts have featured Stuff+ values of 84 and 82 and his velocity has been down of late as well. He’s already made 17 starts covering 96.1 innings this season after making 27 starts and one relief appearance last year over around 150 innings. He also has some negative regression built into his 6.7% HR/FB% with a 3.08 ERA and a 4.05 xERA.
Chicago continues to have relief issues. Boston’s bullpen isn’t compromised at all. This matchup looks very good for them once again.
