Today we have a loaded slate of midweek MLB action on tap with 15 games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:45 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Washington Nationals (-135, 9.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Nationals (47-46) won the opener 12-11, hanging on as -115 home favorites. Then the Astros (46-48) bounced back with a 6-3 win yesterday, cashing as +100 road dogs.
In tonight’s series finale, the Astros hand the ball to righty Spencer Arrighetti (7-4, 3.81 ERA) and the Nationals turn to lefty Foster Griffin (9-2, 2.87 ERA).
This line opened with Washington listed as a -130 home favorite and Houston a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Nats to earn a victory and take the series, driving Washington up from -130 to -135 with some shops touching -140.
At DraftKings, the Nationals are receiving 61% of moneyline bets and 88% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split signaling slight public support but also heavy sharp action in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites -140 or less who missed the playoffs the previous season facing an opponent who also missed the playoffs the previous season, like the Nats here, are 107-68 (61%) with an 11% ROI this season.
The Nationals have the edge offensively, hitting .250 with 500 runs scored compared to the Astros hitting .242 with 430 runs scored.
Washington is 14-4 in Griffin’s 18 starts this season. He has allowed one earned run or less in six straight starts. He is 8-0 with a 2.30 ERA in night games compared to 1-2 with a 3.63 ERA in day games.
Meanwhile, Houston is 0-4 in Arrighetti’s last four starts. He has posted a 4.74 ERA in night games compared to 2.20 during the day.
7:40 p.m. ET: Boston Red Sox at Chicago White Sox (-115, 8)
The Red Sox (41-48) won last night’s series opener 8-1, taking care of business as -125 road favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Red Sox tap lefty Jake Bennett (3-3, 3.10 ERA) and the White Sox (47-43) start righty Davis Martin (9-3, 3.08 ERA).
This line opened with Chicago listed as a -130 home favorite and Boston a +110 road dog.
Sharps have pounced on the red-hot Red Sox (9-2 in their last 11 games) getting plus money, dropping the line away from Chicago (-130 to -115) and toward Boston (+110 to -105).
Essentially, sharp Red Sox action has moved this game down toward a pick’em.
At DraftKings, the Red Sox are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and a whopping 97% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Boston is taking in 59% of moneyline bets and 74% of moneyline dollars. Both books are displaying a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe split in favor of the road dog.
Dogs off a win receiving line movement in their favor who made the playoffs the previous season, like the Red Sox here, are 31-28 (53%) with an 8% ROI this season.
Bennett has allowed 2 earned runs or less in four straight starts. He has an ERA of 2.76 in night games compared to 3.97 during the day.
Meanwhile, Martin has posted a 5.74 ERA in his last six starts, allowing 18 earned runs in 28.2 innings pitched.
Boston has the better bullpen as well, sporting a team ERA of 3.37 (3rd best in MLB) compared to 4.14 (16th) for Chicago.
7:45 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Brewers (-150, 8) at St. Louis Cardinals
The Brewers (58-33) have taken the first three games of this four-game series. Milwaukee won the opener 4-3 as -120 road favorites then swept yesterday’s doubleheader, taking the first game 4-3 as -225 road favorites and then winning the nightcap 10-2 as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s series finale, the Brewers send out lefty Kyle Harrison (8-1, 2.82 ERA) and the Cardinals (47-43) tap righty Michael McGreevy (3-7, 3.12 ERA).
This line opened with Milwaukee listed as a -130 road favorite and St. Louis a +110 home dog.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have gotten down on the Brew Crew to complete the sweep, steaming Milwaukee up from -130 to -145.
At DraftKings, Milwaukee is taking in 83% of moneyline bets and 96% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, the Brewers are receiving 60% of moneyline bets and 91% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in favor of the road chalk.
When both teams are above .500, as is the case here, the team receiving line movement in their direction has gone 127-75 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Milwaukee offers correlative betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (8), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Brewers have the better bats, hitting .255 with 467 runs scored compared to the Cardinals hitting .245 with 411 runs scored.
St. Louis is 1-7 in McGreevy’s last 8 starts.
Milwaukee is 29-15 on the road, the best road record in MLB. St. Louis is 23-24 at home.
The Brewers are 7-1 against the Cardinals this season.
