Today we kick off a new week with a smaller than usual 10 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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6:10 p.m. ET: Houston Astros at Cleveland Guardians (-120, 7.5)
The Astros (8-15) just got swept by the Cardinals, dropping yesterday’s series finale 7-5 in extra innings as -140 home favorites. On the other hand, the Guardians (13-10) just took three of four against the Orioles, winning 8-4 yesterday as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Astros hand the ball to righty Spencer Arrighetti (1-0, 1.50 ERA) and the Guardians go with fellow righty Slade Cecconi (0-2, 5.03 ERA).
This line opened with Cleveland listed as a -115 home favorite and Houston a -105 road dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Guardians laying short chalk at home, driving Cleveland up from -115 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Guardians are taking in 62% of moneyline bets and 67% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Cleveland is receiving 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 93% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the home chalk, especially the pros out in the desert.
Non-division home favorites -150 or less off a win with line movement in their favor, like the Guardians here, are 118-78 (60%) with a 7% ROI since 2025.
Cleveland has additional correlative betting system value as a favorite in a low total game (7.5), with the fewer amount of expected runs scored more likely to come from the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Guardians are 7-3 at home. The Astros are 1-9 on the road.
6:40 p.m. ET: Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 8)
The Reds (14-8) just swept the Twins, winning 7-4 in extra innings yesterday as +100 road dogs. Meanwhile, the Rays (12-9) just dropped two of three against the Pirates, falling 6-3 yesterday as a -110 road pick’em.
In tonight’s Interleague series opener, the Reds tap righty Rhett Lowder (2-1, 3.52 ERA) and the Rays are expected to either start or employ righty Jesse Scholtens (1-0, 0.00 ERA) in a bulk role.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 home favorite and Cincinnati a -105 road dog.
Wiseguys have backed Tampa Bay as a short chalk play at home, pushing the Rays up from -115 to -120.
At Circa, the Rays are receiving 67% of moneyline bets and a whopping 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” split in favor of the home team from the Vegas sharps.
Home favorites -145 or less off a loss in the opening game of a new series, like the Rays here, are 10-5 (67%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Tampa Bay has additional betting system and correlative betting value as an Interleague favorite in a low total game (8), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Rays has the superior offense, hitting .259 with 103 runs scored and a .331 OBP compared to Cincinnati hitting .202 with only 78 runs scored and a .297 OBP.
7:40 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies at Chicago Cubs (-110, 8)
The Phillies (8-13) just got swept by the Braves, losing 4-2 yesterday as -105 home dogs. On the other hand, the Cubs (12-9) just swept the Mets, winning 2-1 in extra innings yesterday as -140 home favorites.
In tonight’s series opener, the Phillies send out righty Aaron Nola (1-1, 4.03 ERA) and the Cubs rebuttal with fellow righty Colin Rea (2-0, 3.63 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Chicago a -105 home dog.
Sharps have gotten down on the Cubs at home, as Chicago has moved from a -105 home dog to a -110 home pick’em, with some shops even officially hopping the fence to the Cubs as a -115 home favorite. In other words, we are seeing wiseguy “dog to pick’em” or even “dog to favorite” line movement in favor of Chicago.
At Circa, Chicago is receiving 79% of moneyline bets and a massive 99% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in their favor from the wiseguys in Vegas.
The Cubs have the edge at the plate, hitting .251 with 112 runs scored and a .341 OBP compared to the Phillies hitting .222 with only 75 runs scored and a .302 OBP.
Nola went 0-6 with a 6.97 ERA on the road last season. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 3-1 in Rea’s four starts this season.
Chicago is 5-3 in night games. Philadelphia is 4-8.
The Cubs also enjoy a “rest vs tired” advantage, as Chicago played yesterday afternoon at home while the Phillies played a late Sunday Night Baseball game and now must travel to Chicago.
