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Game 2: Atlanta Hawks at New York Knicks – 8:00 pm ET
In Quin Snyder’s head coaching career, the Over is 6-3-1 when his teams are playing the second game of a playoff series. Also, with Atlanta, the Over is 4-1 when the Hawks are trailing in a series under Snyder. On top of that, the Over is 9-7 in Mike Brown’s career when his teams are playing the second game in a series.
In addition to those trends — which I know some will argue are meaningless — I also don’t see the Hawks having much of an answer for the Knicks offense. This Atlanta team was great defensively down the stretch, but this matchup is clearly brutal on the visitor. Jalen Brunson is absolutely torching the Hawks when they’re in drop coverage, OG Anunoby is knocking down shots when the defense is forgetting about him, and the New York bigs are capable of dominating the paint. Also, even when Atlanta does find a way to get a body on Towns and Mitchell Robinson, Josh Hart is there crashing the glass like an absolute animal.
I also believe we saw the Hawks find a little something offensively late in Game 1, playing through CJ McCollum and Jalen Johnson a little more when the game started to get out of hand. Atlanta was able to make things interesting with those guys taking turns in isolation a bit. The Hawks will likely look to play that way right from the opening tip in Game 2, plus they could also feature some more mid-post play from Johnson. Well, if all of that is successful, this could very well turn into a high-scoring game. That’s why Over 217 is a play for me.
I also like Towns to go Over 35.5 combined points, rebounds, and assists in Game 2. Towns had 37 PRA in Game 1, but I feel he left a lot on the table. He only had eight rebounds despite having 16 rebound chances, and I see him flirting with 12-13 boards this evening. Towns also shot rather poorly in Game 1, but he’s capable of dominating at the basket and doing a little more from downtown. Also, I’m going Towns PRA instead of just points and rebounds because he has been great as a passer lately. Towns has had at least four assists in five straight games, averaging 9.0 potential assists on top of that. Also, in three meetings with Atlanta this year, Towns is averaging 42.7 points, rebounds, and assists per game.
Bet: Over 217 (-110)
Bet: Karl-Anthony Towns Over 35.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-118)
Game 2: Minnesota Timberwolves at Denver Nuggets – 10:30 pm ET
People usually target Nikola Jokic’s offensive player props, which is completely understandable. He’s coming off a season in which he averaged 27.7 points, 12.9 rebounds, and 10.7 assists per game, and he puts up outrageous numbers regularly. However, I do think Jokic’s defense is a little underrated, and I like his chances of having at least three combined blocks and steals in Game 2.
While Jokic only had one steal in Game 1, this is a player that generally does put up some good defensive numbers in big games. This season, in games in which the Nuggets have closed as favorites of 7.5 or fewer (including games they’ve played as underdogs), Jokic is averaging 2.4 combined blocks and steals per game. That also goes up to 2.5 when playing at home.
The Timberwolves were also pretty buttoned up with the basketball in Game 1, turning it over only 13 times. Well, they averaged 14.8 turnovers per game during the regular season, and I see them having some ugly games against an aggressive defense the rest of this series. That should benefit Jokic, who has good hands and overall defensive instincts.
Bet: Nikola Jokic Over 2.5 Blocks + Steals (+101)
Additional Plays
PARLAY: Cavaliers ML vs. Raptors Game 2 & Nuggets ML vs. Timberwolves Game 2 (-133 – 1.5 units): The Cavaliers won 126-113 in a game in which the Raptors shot 13 for 27 from three and got to the free throw line 35 times. Well, Toronto isn’t that good of a three-point shooting team, and the Raptors averaged only 23.4 free throw attempts per game. That said, some of the offense we saw from Toronto in Game 1 might not be there in Game 2. Also, things don’t sound great regarding Immanuel Quickley’s status for Game 2. It seems like he’s prepared to miss yet another game in this series. However, even if he doesn’t, he’ll likely be compromised. Well, the Cavaliers took advantage of his absence last game, applying a ton of ball pressure on the perimeter. They’ll look to do the same here.
In the other game, it just can’t feel good for Minnesota that the team threw a really good punch in the opening half of Game 1, yet the result was nine-point loss. I simply don’t see the Timberwolves being good enough offensively to take advantage of the Nuggets being weaker on the defensive end. Also, Jaden McDaniels doesn’t look 100% with his mobility, which impacted him defensively in Game 1. That’s something to monitor moving forward, and I don’t see it getting much better from Game 1 to Game 2. That means Jamal Murray should be able to get whatever he wants again here, and this Denver team is impossible to guard when he and Jokic have it going.
