Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for July 5. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Sunday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Sunday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Kyle Schwarber Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105) vs. Royals
Phillies at Royals – 3:00 pm ET
Schwarber is averaging 2.3 total bases when facing right-handed starters this season. Well, this afternoon, he’s going up against a shaky one in Luinder Avila, and he’s doing so inside a hitter-friendly park. Avila also throws mostly faster pitches, with a fastball, sinker, and slider making up a big portion of his pitch diet. Schwarber can make him pay for a missed location with any of those.
Kevin McGonigle Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-125) vs. Rangers
Tigers at Rangers – 3:30 pm ET
I was hoping to take McGonigle against Kumar Rocker on Saturday, but Texas pushed the righty’s start back a day. So, we’ll just fire it up again today. McGonigle is averaging 2.2 HRR per game against righty starters this year, he’s hitting at the top of the order for a road team, and he’s going up against a mistake-prone pitcher. There’s a lot that suggests he should have a productive day at the plate.
Rafael Devers Over 2.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-116) vs. Rockies
Giants at Rockies – 4:00 pm ET
Devers has been on an absolute tear against righties lately, going Over his HRR total in six straight games against right-handed starters. Well, I’m not going away from him here. While his total is up at 2.5 in this one, this is a game that’s being played at Coors Field. Plenty of players should show up with some big days at the plate, and Devers is a threat to pop off.
Additional Picks
Nolan McLean Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-131) vs. Braves
Nick Lodolo Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-108 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+189 – 0.5 units) vs. Orioles
Ryan Weathers Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-120) vs. Twins
Tanner Bibee Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-143 – 1.5 units) vs. White Sox
Brandon Sproat Over 4.5 Strikeouts (+132) vs. Diamondbacks
Eury Perez Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-128 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+166 – 0.5 units) vs. Athletics
Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Hit + Runs + RBIs (-145) vs. Padres
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Kevin Alcantara Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-130) vs. Cardinals
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him going for 1.77 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -485 — a +26.4% edge to the Over.
Jimmy Crooks Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-123) vs. Cubs
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.59 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -389 — a +24.4% edge to the Over.
James Outman Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122) vs. Rangers
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.57 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -382 — a +24.3% edge to the Over.
