Today we wrap up the weekend with a loaded 15 game MLB slate to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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2:10 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Phillies (-125, 6.5) at Milwaukee Brewers
This is the rubber match of a three-game series.
The Brewers (42-26) dominated the opener 6-0, taking care of business as massive -260 home favorites. Then the Phillies (38-32) bounced back with a 9-8 win yesterday, coming through as +135 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Phillies send out lefty Cristopher Sanchez (8-2, 1.54 ERA) and the Brewers tap fellow southpaw Kyle Harrison (7-1, 2.72 ERA).
This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a -115 road favorite and Milwaukee a -105 home dog.
Sharps have pounced on the Phillies laying short chalk with their ace on the mound, driving Philadelphia up from -115 to -125, with some shops inching up to -130.
At DraftKings, the Phillies are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 83% of moneyline dollars. At Circa, Philadelphia is taking in 56% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars. Both books are showing a pronounced “low bets, higher dollars” wiseguy bet split in favor of the road chalk.
Philadelphia offers betting system and correlative betting value as a non-division favorite in a super low total game (6.5), with the lack of familiarity and fewer amount of expected runs scored historically benefiting the “better” team who is expected to win.
The Phillies are 7-1 in Sanchez’s last eight starts.
Meanwhile, Harrison has posted a 10.12 ERA in two June starts, giving up 9 earned runs in 8 innings pitched.
4:07 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays (-120, 9) at Los Angeles Angels
The Angels (29-42) have taken the first two games of this three-game series, winning the opener 4-3 as +140 home dogs and then winning again yesterday 8-0 as -105 home dogs.
In this late afternoon series finale, the Rays (40-27) hand the ball to righty Casey Legumina (2-1, 3.07 ERA) and the Angels counter with fellow righty Grayson Rodriguez (2-2, 8.10 ERA).
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a -115 road favorite and Los Angeles a -105 home dog.
Sharps have quietly sided with the Rays to earn a victory and avoid the sweep, pushing Tampa Bay up from -115 to -120.
At DraftKings, the Rays are taking in 73% of moneyline bets and a whopping 98% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp Pro and Joe bet split in their favor. At Circa, Tampa Bay is receiving over 90% of moneyline bets and dollars, indicating heavy one-way support out in Vegas.
Road favorites are getting shut out, like the Rays here, are 15-9 (62%) with a 9% ROI this season and 157-87 (64%) with an 11% ROI since 2022.
Favorites who have lost the first two games of a three-game series and are looking to avoid the sweep have gone 22-8 (73%) with a 28% ROI this season.
Rodriguez has posted a 9.82 ERA at home compared toa 1.80 ERA on the road.
The Rays are hitting .249 on the road (8th best in MLB), while the Angels are hitting just .228 at home (27th).
Tampa Bay is also hitting .258 against righties (5th) compared to .237 for Los Angeles (21st).
7:20 p.m. ET: Texas Rangers at Boston Red Sox (-115, 9)
The Red Sox (29-39) have won the first two games of this three-game series, taking the opener 10-1 as -135 home favorites and then winning again yesterday 6-3 as -130 home favorites.
In tonight’s Sunday Night Baseball series finale, the Rangers (34-36) start righty Nathan Eovaldi (5-7, 4.26 ERA) and the Red Sox go with lefty Connelly Early (5-4, 3.30 ERA).
This line opened at roughly a pick’em, with both sides listed around -110 odds.
Sharps have quietly come down in favor of the Red Sox to earn a win at Fenway and secure the sweep, pushing Boston up from -110 to -115 or even -120 at some shops.
At DraftKings, Boston is taking in 67% of moneyline bets and 78% of moneyline dollars, a one-way “low bets, higher dollars” Pro and Joe bet split in their favor.
When both teams are below .500, as is the case here, the home favorite priced -140 or less is 57-33 (63%) with a 14% ROI this season.
Sunday home favorites off a win facing an opponent who missed the playoffs the previous season are 37-17 (69%) with a 16% ROI this season.
Sunday Night Baseball home favorites are 187-105 (64%) with an 8% ROI since 2010.
Eovaldi has posted a 6.17 ERA in two June starts, giving up 8 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched.
The Rangers are hitting just .228 against lefties, ranking 23rd in MLB.
