WNBA Picks
Happy Father’s Day to all the dads out there! We’ve got a three-game slate in the WNBA to bet on as you enjoy your family time, with the Aces hosting the Valkyries at 4 p.m. ET, Minnesota vs Washington to follow at 6 p.m. ET, and the Sparks hosting Liberty at 8 p.m. ET today. Here are the TSI projections for Sunday’s slate.
Las Vegas Aces (-4) vs Golden State Valkyries, O/U 167.5
Las Vegas comes into this game having won seven of eight, and is averaging 92 points per game in their last five. Golden State has won four of its last five, as they’ve turned a corner defensively and are one of the best defenses in the league. Over their last five games, the Valkyries have held opponents 11 points under their season scoring averages, although in Vegas’s last four wins, they’ve scored 14 points above opponents’ defensive averages. TSI projects Aces -6.5 with a total of 172.5 in this game, as Vegas has averaged 95 points per game in their last four home games, which was 12 points above opponent defensive averages. Plus, Vegas has been three points better against playoff teams than against non-playoff teams this season, adjusted for opponent. I’m backing Becky Hammon’s squad at home.
Bet: Aces -4 (Play to -5)
Minnesota Lynx (-13.5) vs Washington Mystics, O/U 169
The Lynx have won three straight and 11 of 12 games. They’ve been the most consistent team in the league and have an average scoring margin in their last five games of 97-82. Washington has managed to figure out how to play on the road, after being atrocious the first part of the season, they’ve won back-to-back road games, including the last game at New York. However, this is their 4th road game in eight days, so a tough spot having to take on Olivia Miles and co. TSI projects Lynx -12 with a total of 169. Minnesota has been awesome both home and away and against virtually anyone, but they’ve really had their way with non-playoff teams, so this could get ugly for Washington, who’s been six points worse against playoff teams this season. I don’t have a play because TSI was too close on the projections, but I’d lean Minnesota here.
LA Sparks (+4.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 180
What a tough three-game stretch here for LA; they’ve played Golden State and Minnesota, and now face New York for the last game of the stretch. All while dealing with Cameron Brink’s injury and Kelsey Plum having missed time. They’ve been outscored on average in their last 5 games by a score of 86-83, with an average game grade of -4.5 points below league average in those games. New York is coming off the loss to Washington, but has been playing great ball after winning eight straight prior to that loss. TSI projects Liberty -2.5 with a total of 178, so there’s seemingly some value on the surface, but diving deeper, there are a lot of conflicting trends and stats for this game. New York has been two points better on the road while LA has been 5.5 points worse at home and 6.5 points worse against playoff teams, negating the initial TSI lean for me. On the total, LA home games have been about 2.5 points lower than expected (adjusted for opponent), while New York road games have been seven points above expectation, so I don’t feel great about the Under either. I’m going to pass on this one, too.
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