WNBA Picks
After having the day off on Saturday, we’re back with a full four-game slate in the WNBA on Sunday. I personally don’t understand how or why the league would allow a full Saturday in May to pass without having any TV inventory, but what do I know? Anyway, today we’ve got the Las Vegas Aces traveling east to take on the Atlanta Dream, the Seattle Storm visiting Caitlin Clark and the Fever, a rematch between the LA Sparks and the Toronto Tempo in Los Angeles, and the Minnesota Lynx hosting the Chicago Sky. I’m starting to get really excited about the data points collected as the season progresses, as we’ve seen historically, it does make the TSI projections better and better, so let’s get to Sunday’s numbers.
Atlanta Dream (+2.5) vs Las Vegas Aces, O/U 172.5
This line has been pretty wacky since opening at some recreational books at Vegas -4.5, only to be moved to Atlanta -1.5, but then Rhyne Howard (ATL) got ruled out with a concussion, and now we’re back to Aces -2.5 on the road. Atlanta has been very good so far, starting 2-0 with wins over Minnesota and Dallas; however, they’re missing Rhyne Howard, and Las Vegas has played the best ball of anyone since their inexplicable opening loss to Phoenix. TSI projects Atlanta -0.5 with a total of 171 in this game, and I think a 1.5 point adjustment for Howard’s absence is reasonable, making it more like Vegas -1. I’ve consistently felt that in all sports, individual players get overrated from a point spread perspective when they’re out, so I tend to bet ON those teams who are missing star players. Full transparency, I bet Aces +1.5 before the Howard news, but now I’d be more inclined to get the home team at +2.5 or better.
Lean: Dream +2.5 or better
Indiana Fever (-10.5) vs Seattle Storm, O/U 177
Indiana has been pretty underwhelming so far this season. Despite being second in the league in opponent-adjusted scoring, they’re second to last in opponent-adjusted points allowed. They’re now just 1-2 and will host the young Seattle Storm this afternoon. Seattle will be without Dominique Molonga, their most promising young big; however, Indiana isn’t sure if they’ll have Aaliyah Boston after she left the Mystics game this week in the fourth quarter and didn’t return with a leg injury. Truthfully, I’d call that a wash in terms of point spread adjustment if both teams are without their best bigs. TSI projects Fever -14.5 with a total of 177, so I’m laying the points with Indiana, as Seattle is 11th (out of 15) in both offensive and defensive opponent-adjusted scoring.
Bet: Fever -10.5 (Play to -11.5)
LA Sparks (-7.5) vs Toronto Tempo, O/U 174.5
This game is just a reminder that predictive analytics are so weird and counterintuitive sometimes; for instance, these teams just played a few days ago, and TSI projected LA -9. The Sparks won by 4, and now TSI has LA favored by 11 in the rematch. The important thing to remember is that predictive ratings aren’t just adjusted by what a certain team does; they’re also highly impacted by what that team’s former opponents do against their opponents. Think of it like a giant puzzle of transitive property. Anyway, TSI projects a total of 172.5 in this game to go along with the 11-point spread projection. LA is 8th in (opponent-adjusted) scoring, and just 11th in adjusted defense, while Toronto is 14th and 6th, respectively. I’m going to pass on this game because my eyeballs and the data seem to be conflicting, so I’ll collect the data point and move on.
Minnesota Lynx (-4.5) vs Chicago Sky, O/U 170
Minnesota has been an early-season cash cow for us so far, as the market has consistently undervalued them since Napheesa Collier is out, which lends itself to my earlier point that players get overvalued by the market when they miss games. Chicago has been much better than anticipated so far as well, going 2-1 to start and sitting at #4 in adjusted defensive rating, per TSI. Minnesota is #4 on offense so far, so we’ll have a bit of contrasting styles in this game. TSI projects Lynx -7.5 with a total of 169. A key point here is that it’s Chicago’s fourth road game in eight days, so this is a play on the situation as much as the number.
Bet: Lynx -4.5 (play to -5.5)
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