WNBA Picks
We were 2-1 on article plays yesterday as we split the Mercury/Fever game by cashing the underdog but losing the Under (badly), but the Valkyries came through in the nightcap to win outright as dogs, so that was a sweat-free winner basically the whole time. Thursday has a three-game slate for us, featuring the shorthanded LA Sparks taking on the Toronto Tempo, the Las Vegas Aces hosting the Dallas Wings, and the Seattle Storm hosting the New York Liberty. Here are the TSI projections for Thursday’s slate.
Toronto Tempo (-1.5) vs LA Sparks, O/U 179.5
This line has moved a ton after the announcement of Kelsey Plum’s leg injury that’ll sideline her for at least a month. Toronto has been about 5.5 points worse than its season average over the last handful of games, and actually have been 1.5 points worse at home than on the road. The only plus for them in the data for this game is that they’ve been seven points better against non-playoff caliber teams (which LA fits) than they have been against playoff teams, adjusted for opponent. LA’s trends probably don’t matter as much since Plum and Cameron Brink are both out, but TSI projects LA -1 with a total of 178. Normally, I’d jump on this +1.5, but I think more data is needed on the new-look Sparks. I did bet the Under at 181 yesterday, personally, but the market has tightened up quite a bit since then, so I’d just consider it a lean at this point, as Toronto’s home games have been about 5 points lower scoring on average than their road games, relative to expectation.
Lean: Under 179.5
Las Vegas Aces (-5.5) vs Dallas Wings, O/U 178.5
It’s been said that Vegas has a Dallas problem; in the two games these teams have played this year, Dallas has won by an average of 96-77 against this Aces team. Vegas comes into this game playing about two points worse over its last five games than its season average, but Dallas is playing about four points worse than its season average over the last five games. Vegas has played some clunkers at home, but the good news for them is that they’ve been 2.5 points better against playoff teams than against non-playoff teams; although Dallas has been four points better against playoff teams, so both teams have generally risen to the occasion. TSI projects Vegas -7.5 with a total of 175.5. I bet the Over yesterday before the line climbed, as I do have a couple formulas in the 180s, so I’d still lean Over. I’d love to back the Aces, but there seems to be something with this matchup that gives them fits, so I’m going to stay off the side.
Lean: Over 178.5
Seattle Storm (+11.5) vs New York Liberty, O/U 169.5
Seattle is a young team who’s not very good; this much is obvious. Although the bright side for them is that they’ve been a whopping eight points better at home than on the road, which makes sense for such a young team. New York has actually been three points better away from Barclays Center, and has been six points better against non-playoff teams. TSI projects New York -10.5 with a total of 169, so I don’t have anything on this game. It’s hard to trust this Seattle team who can lay an egg at any moment, and the total is appropriately priced. I do think this is probably a good spot for Seattle with New York coming off the Vegas win, but I’m going to pass.
For all of my WNBA picks, including prop bets and live plays, be sure to follow me on X @TShoeIndex and turn your notifications on to get real-time updates from me on all things WNBA.
