Today we have a loaded midweek MLB slate on tap with 15-games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for a trio of matchups using our VSiN MLB Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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1:10 p.m. ET: San Diego Padres at Detroit Tigers (-165, 8.5)
This is the rubber match of a three-game Interleague series.
The Tigers (14-10) win the opener 6-4, taking care of business as -145 home favorites. Then the Padres (17-7) bounced back with a 2-0 win yesterday, cashing as +120 road dogs.
In this afternoon’s series finale, the Padres start lefty Kyle Hart (2-1, 6.48 ERA) and the Tigers counter with righty Reese Olson (2-1, 4.50 ERA).
This line opened with Detroit listed as a -145 home favorite and San Diego a +130 road dog.
The public is largely split down the middle and doesn’t know who to take. However, despite this even ticket count we’ve seen Detroit move up from -145 to -165. In a vacuum, a line shouldn’t move at all if the bets are even because, theoretically, the oddmakers have balanced action and no need to adjust the price. So, based on the line move we can infer that the bigger, sharper wagers are backing the Tigers at home.
At Circa, Detroit is taking in 47% of moneyline bets but a whopping 87% of monyeline dollars, a hefty “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in favor of the home chalk.
Home favorites off a loss, like the Tigers here, are 61-25 (71%) with a 20% ROI this season. Interleague home favorites who made the playoffs the previous season are 28-12 (70%) with a 16% ROI. Favorites -150 or more are 95-42 (69%) with a 6% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 80-30 (73%) with an 18% ROI.
Hart has a 7.71 ERA in three April starts, allowing 10 earned runs in 11.2 innings pitched. Meanwhile, Olson has a 3.52 ERA in three April starts, giving up 6 earned runs in 15.1 innings pitched.
Detroit is 9-3 at home this season. San Diego is 5-6 on the road.
6:45 p.m. ET: Seattle Mariners at Boston Red Sox (-140, 10)
The Red Sox (14-11) won last night’s series opener 8-3, cruising as -120 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Mariners (12-11) send out righty Emerson Hancock (0-1, 12.71 ERA) and the Red Sox trot out lefty Sean Newcomb (0-2, 3.63 ERA).
This line opened with Boston listed as a -130 home favorite and Seattle a +115 road dog.
Wiseguys are going back to the well with the Red Sox, driving Boston up from -130 to -140.
At Circa, the Red Sox are receiving 80% of moneyline bets and 99% of moneyline dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet split in their favor.
Home favorites are 156-78 (67%) with a 10% ROI this season. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 44-17 (72%) with a 16% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 80-30 (73%) with an 18% ROI. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 151-82 (65%) with a 7% ROI.
Boston has the better bats, hitting .249 with 116 runs scored compared to Seattle hitting .223 with 101 runs scored.
The Red Sox are hitting .251 against righties (8th-best in MLB). The Mariners are only hitting .214 against lefties (21st).
Boston is 8-4 at home this season. Seattle is 4-6 on the road.
9:40 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Rays at Arizona Diamondbacks (-160, 9)
The Diamondbacks (14-9) won last night’s Interleague series opener 5-1, taking care of business as -190 home favorites.
In tonight’s rematch, the Rays (9-14) turn to righty Taj Bradley (2-1, 5.24 ERA) and the Diamondbacks rebuttal with lefty Eduardo Rodriguez (1-2, 4.09 ERA).
This line opened with Arizona listed as a -140 home favorite and Tampa Bay a +125 road dogs.
Sharps are riding the hot hand and have laid the chalk with the Snakes at home, steaming Arizona up from -140 to -160.
At Circa, the Diamondbacks are receiving 64% of moneyline bets and over 95% of moneyline dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy and further evidence of the bigger, sharper wagers backing the Snakes out in Vegas.
Home favorites are 156-78 (67%) with a 10% ROI this season. Favorites with line movement in their direction are 151-82 (65%) with a 7% ROI. Home favorites with a winning record are 80-30 (73%) with an 18% ROI. Non-division home favorites off a win with steam 5-cents or more are 44-17 (72%) with a 16% ROI.
The Snakes have the more explosive bats, hitting 32 homers and scoring 125 runs compared to the Rays hitting only 21 homers and scoring 95 runs.
The Diamondbacks are hitting .279 at home, 3rd-best in MLB. The Rays are only hitting .211 against lefties (22nd).
Arizona is 7-4 at home this season. Tampa Bay is 0-4 on the road.
