Sunday Night MLB: Yankees vs. Red Sox
Baseball is a funny game. The Red Sox seem to be in the midst of turmoil, as virtually every story coming out of Boston has been bad this season, from Craig Breslow’s roster construction to Alex Cora’s firing and everything in between.
On Wednesday, the Red Sox lost 8-6 to the Rockies, blowing a 6-3 lead in the seventh and falling behind in the eighth. Their flight out of Denver was forced to return to the airport about 40 minutes after takeoff and then they were delayed another five hours, getting home on Thursday morning at around 5 a.m. ET and having to face Cam Schlittler that night.
Well, as we look ahead to Sunday Night Baseball with Yankees vs. Red Sox, Boston is seeking a sweep and their first four-game winning streak of the season.
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How to Watch Yankees vs. Red Sox
Where: NBC/Peacock
When: Sunday June 28, 7:20 p.m. ET
Yankees vs. Red Sox MLB Odds
Boston Red Sox -117 // New York Yankees -103
Total: 8 (-106/-113)
Yankees vs. Red Sox Prediction
Pick: Red Sox -117
The Red Sox had three three-game winning streaks on the season, April 25-27, May 4-6, and May 18-20, with the most recent one as their only series sweep of the season, prior to this weekend. They’ve outscored the Yankees 16-5 behind some stellar performances from Connelly Early, Peyton Tolle, and Jake Bennett. Tonight, they’ll turn to Sonny Gray in hopes of polishing off their first four-game series sweep of the Yankees since August 2-5, 2018.
The 2018 season was a pretty good one for the Red Sox, who beat the Dodgers in the World Series. They’re a long way away from looking like a playoff-caliber team right now, but the Yankees have been the class of the AL all season long and are one of two teams in the Junior Circuit with a positive run differential. Ironically, the other one is the Red Sox, who are 35-46 despite a +4 run differential entering today’s game.
Gray has a 2.95 ERA with a 3.80 xERA and a 3.81 FIP in his 76.1 innings this season, so there’s some mild regression in his profile, namely an 83.5% LOB% with just a 21.1% K%, his lowest since 2018 when he was with the Yankees. His K% was even lower before punching out 11 Rockies over seven innings in his last start on June 23. It should be noted that since May 13, a span of eight starts, Gray has struck out 51 batters in 48.1 innings and has an 88.5% LOB%, so he started very slowly in the strikeout department, but has picked it up a lot lately.
Carlos Rodon will attempt to help the Bronx Bombers get one back in the series here, as he has a 3.70 ERA with a 3.84 xERA and a 3.49 FIP in his eight starts across 41.1 innings. His season got off to a delayed start, as he made his 2026 debut on May 10. He hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start and has 46 strikeouts against 22 walks in 41.1 innings of work. He’s only allowed three home runs and just six Barrels, so he’s been locating very well on the whole.
Recently, Boston has beaten up on southpaws, posting a .282/.364/.551 slash with a .392 wOBA and a 148 wRC+ over the last 14 days, but that is a very small sample size of just 88 plate appearances and did include a series in Colorado. That said, if we stretch to 30 days, the Red Sox are still fourth in wOBA at .350 with a .262/.333/.475 slash. For the season as a whole, they are second in wOBA at .337 with a .270/.338/.428 slash, so this is a good split for them.
Over the last two weeks, the Yankees are batting .244/.318/.487 against righties with a .349 wOBA that ranks seventh in the league. They only have a .262 BABIP in that span, but have hit 14 homers. Surprisingly, they’ve only hit six doubles out of their 48 hits. If we push it out to 30 days, they are just 18th in wOBA at .330, slashing .238/.318/.439.
Aaron Judge has been sidelined since the end of May, so the Yankees have played the entire month of June without him, as they’ve gone 12-10 with a +7 run differential, scoring 4.5 runs per game.
This will be the eighth head-to-head meeting out of 13, as the Yankees hold a slight 4-3 edge and have outscored Boston 25-21.
The last off day for the Yankees was June 15 and they seem to be running on fumes a bit right now without their best hitter. My VSiN colleague Jensen Lewis noted to me that Schlittler looked tired on Thursday and maybe that’s just a microcosm of the team as a whole right now, having played at such a high level all season while the rest of the AL has not. Boston finally has something to feel good about right now with a chance to finish the series strong.
