France vs. Sweden
New York/New Jersey Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey.
Tuesday, June 30th, 5:00 p.m. ET
France has looked every bit like a World Cup favorite through the group stage, and this Round of 32 matchup sets up well for them to continue that momentum. I can’t see them failing to win by at least a two-goal margin. That means we can make profit on my best bet of France -1.75 on the Asian Handicap.
Didier Deschamps’ men cruised into the knockout rounds, winning all their group games, scoring 10 goals in the process while only conceding twice. All their victories were convincing and would have cashed this bet in full twice, Iraq (3-0) and Norway (4-1), and in part after the 3-1 defeat of Senegal, showcasing an attack capable of overwhelming opponents and with incredible strength.
Sweden’s route to the Round of 32 was far less convincing despite having the best possible start by hammering Tunisia 5-1. However, they were brought crashing back to earth after a 5-1 thrashing at the hands of Netherlands before a mutually beneficial 1-1 tie with Japan to squeeze through as one of the best third-place finishers.
Expect France, with the likes of an in-form Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé, both on four tournament goals, supplied by Michael Olise (three assists), to create a high volume of quality chances while forcing Sweden deeper and deeper into their own half. Graham Potter had to withdraw both central defender Isak Hien and defensive midfielder Victor Lindelöf during the Japan game, and their absence here would further weaken a back line already exposed during the group stages.
Potter has done well since becoming Head Coach in October last year, but his three defeats from nine internationals were all heavy. His debut in charge saw a 4-1 loss to Switzerland and was beaten 3-1 by Norway in a pre-World Cup friendly before that group stage thumping by the Dutch.
A two-goal French victory lands at least a half-win, while a three-goal margin cashes the ticket in full. France’s average of 3.3 goals scored per game in the tournament and Sweden’s defensive vulnerability against elite opposition makes the -1.75 a very attractive line at a shade of minus money.
World Cup Best Bet: France vs. Sweden – France -1.75 Asian Handicap at -110
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