EPL Best Bets and Predictions May 16-17
Here are this week’s EPL best bets:
Brentford vs. Crystal Palace
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
This weekend sees Manchester City vs Chelsea in the FA Cup final and eight of the penultimate round of Premier League fixtures. Although I will be in attendance, I will be leaving the clash at Wembley alone as a betting heat, but I have three bets from Sunday’s league games.
It seems the fact that Brentford will be desperate for a win here, while Palace have their priorities elsewhere, is already baked into the prices. The home side are -132 while they were +188 last season in a game they won 2-1, but I still want to fade the visitors.
Last week, that strategy didn’t quite pay off as I got a push with Everton but was on the right side of a big market move. I think the same thing will happen again this weekend.
There are two main reasons why Keith Andrews’ men should be supported. They sit eighth in the table and have a great chance of qualifying for Europe for the first time in their history, and have a striker desperate to get selected for Brazil’s World Cup squad who is only four goals behind Erling Haaland in the race for the Golden Boot.
Palace were swept aside by Manchester City in a stand-alone fixture in midweek. They face Arsenal on the last weekend of the season and have a European Conference League final a matter of days after that.
Taking Brentford on the -0.75 Asian Handicap means we profit if they win and get a full return at -106 if their victory is by two or more goals. In a fixture that reminds me a lot of Bournemouth’s recent 3-0 win over the Eagles, I think they win convincingly.
Bournemouth had the same needs with Palace in the same position. I foresee a similar outcome.
History is on our side too. Since Brentford gained promotion to the Premier League, they are unbeaten in this fixture.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs Crystal Palace – Brentford -0.75 at -106.
Everton vs. Sunderland
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I am keeping this one simple and betting Everton on the moneyline at -112, which I think is a big price. They have impressed me over the last few weeks of the season and were right up for it in their last home match, conceding late in a 3-3 tie with title-chasing Manchester City.
This is, of course, their first season in a brand-new home, and although they initially struggled, it has been a fair campaign at the Hill Dickinson Stadium. They have never been close to the relegation places this term, unlike in recent seasons and still hold an outside hope of qualifying for Europe.
This game earlier in the year would have had us looking straight to the Under 2.5 goals market, but David Moyes’ side has been involved in some high-scoring matches in recent weeks. The last five fixtures have all seen both teams score, with the last six cashing Over 2.5 goals.
I have a feeling Everton will want to sign off at home on a high and put on a show for their fans to suggest they can build even further next season. It’s no win in four for Sunderland, and although they tied their last two at a relegated Wolves and a coasting Manchester United, they conceded nine in defeats to Villa and Forest before that.
A lot of sides have shown signs of downing tools with not much to play for, but one manager who will not let that happen is Moyes, and he can guide his men to a big win here.
EPL Best Bet: Everton vs Sunderland – Everton to win at -112.
Manchester United vs. Nottingham Forest
Sunday, 7:30 a.m. ET
Manchester United are priced up at -177 to win this fixture, and although I think they get the win here, I can’t be betting them at those odds. It is the last home game of what has ended as a successful league campaign, and Michael Carrick could be announced as the new permanent manager ahead of kickoff.
That should lead to something of a party atmosphere at Old Trafford as they take on a Nottingham Forest side who have done well in Europe and ultimately achieved their main goal of avoiding relegation. You wonder what motivation the visitors will have, and although they snatched a tie at Newcastle last weekend, there was a big market negative towards them.
Goals have featured heavily in both these sides’ recent games. Both teams have scored in seven of Manchester United’s last nine fixtures across all venues and in their last five at home.
That leads me to look at Red Devils players who can get on the scoresheet and leans into a strategy I like on the last weekends of the season. Casemiro missed the 0-0 tie with Sunderland, but his manager said he would be fine for this clash.
This will be the 34-year-old Brazilian’s final appearance for the club at Old Trafford before his departure in the summer, and he is on nine goals for the season. Unbelievably, he has never hit double figures in a single campaign in his well-decorated career.
He is always good for a goal, but I think his teammates will be desperate to see him score here. Don’t be surprised if United win a penalty, the ball gets thrown to him.
EPL Best Bet: Manchester United vs Nottingham Forest – Casemiro to score at +360.
