UFC Predictions for Fight Night Las Vegas 95 – Tybura vs. Spivak 2:
The UFC is back in its APEX center this week for UFC LV95, an eleven-fight card populated with an international array of lesser-known UFC combatants. Three bouts feature 170-pound (or larger) men fighting in the smaller 25-foot diameter APEX octagon. In contrast, the remaining bouts are competitively matched with smaller athletes, where the wrestling/grappling combatant could have a slight advantage. Let’s look at this week’s UFC predictions.
Favorites marched to a 12-1 result last week and stand 212-95-8 in 2024, which renders investing in underdogs a risky proposition.
Digital results in 2024 stand 19-16 +7.73u: I am profitably navigating the heavy first-half-year chalk parade.
Serghei Spivac -145 vs. Marcin Tybura +120
Heavyweight (265 pounds) Main Event
This is a rematch of a 2020 fight in which Polish veteran Tybura, then an experienced 34-year-old UFC veteran, introduced twenty-five-year-old Moldovan neophyte Spivac to the heavyweight division by winning a close decision over the ‘Polar Bear,’ who was competing in his third UFC fight.
In that first fight, the betting line on Tybura closed at -125. Tybura used all his cardio, guile, and experience to win over the younger, more energetic, but less experienced Spivac. Since then, each has won the fights they should have while dropping marquee opportunities to athletes who are more gifted than they are when it comes to heavyweight MMA weaponry and tactics.
Flash forward four years, and Tybura, now even more experienced at 37, stands ready to defend his eighth rank in the division against old foe Spivac, who happens to be ranked ninth.
In a small cage, large lumbering men with ill intent will offer excitement in the initial stages of this fight, but after six minutes or so, this one could turn into a slow dance at the high school prom.
These two mammoth heavyweights are neither dynamic physically nor, to be honest, athletically. After the first six to seven minutes, we’ll witness groping, mauling, and maneuvering within the small cage once the crispness of each fighter’s strikes has dulled.
When this fight is completed, I believe Serghei Spivac will earn a decision victory in a battle that will mean much to both the victor and the defeated but little else to anyone but us investors.
I sense revenge.
UFC Prediction: Spivac -145
Total in this fight: 3.5 Rds Under -130
UFC Prediction: Lean Over
Jose “Chepe” Mariscal -210 vs. Damon Jackson +180
Featherweight (145 pounds)
This new co-main event will be a tremendous clash of styles as a short, sawed-off Mariscal looks to incapacitate the crafty, beguiling submission artist Jackson.
Jackson is the grizzled veteran who will stand four inches taller than Mariscal. He’ll hold a two-inch arm reach advantage to go with his four-inch leg reach edge, which in past fights has allowed him to use those thin appendages to clasp onto necks, heads, arms, and legs.
Jackson earned a victory in his last fight against Alex Hernadez and showed vastly improved striking but dropped his two previous bouts to Dan Ige and Billy Quarantillo, respectively. He works behind a decent jab, gut-wrenching teep kicks, and forward pressure when the war goes his way.
In Chepe Mariscal, we have a human chain saw. Chepe is short, squat, forward-pressing, and as tempered as an anvil. He forges forward with one intent: to attack the opponent with power strikes/kicks that deliver numbing results. Chepe ‘makes’ fights, but in this battle, I believe we’ll see him approach Jackson with initial caution. He must not force his way into a lack of submission awareness while working to engage.
Jackson must employ a stiff jab to neutralize Chape’s inward press and maintain distance for his elbows and knees to catch the maniacal Mariscal on entry. Entry is the key to this fight, for ultimately, Chepe wants to be inside lobbing power bombs at Jackson, and Jackson may well want Chepe working into him for the submission comes far easier with a forceful foe.
Jackson’s length, experience, and level of competition provide him with a great opportunity to turn back Mariscal in this fight. However, he’ll need to overcome a couple of rounds of pure ferocity if he is to do it unless he can find the aggressive striker’s neck while the fight is early and the skin is dry.
Mariscal’s momentum from three straight wins over bona fide UFC competition, combined with his compact frame, extreme aggression, forward pressure, granite chin, and profuse power, force me to believe that a Chepe, a man who has never been submitted, could make this four-in-a-row in the UFC.
Total in this fight: 2.5 Rds. Over -125
Danny Barlow -340 vs. Nikolay Veretennikov +285
Welterweight (170 pounds)
Barlow is young, fast, powerful, and on the ascent despite having yet to be really tested in the UFC.
Short-notice replacement fighter Veretennikov arrives with few credentials except that he’s won a couple of fights and was available to replace Uros Medic on very short notice. Veretennikov is a durable, tough methodical finisher who will look to make a name for himself at this late stage of a fighting career.
In this fight, we have the big name who needs to look dominant, but will the short-notice replacement be game for the upset, a solid showing, or a beating?
Total in this fight: 1.5 Rds. Over -210.
This total is based on what Barlow is expected to do. I believe Veretennikov is much more durable than one-and-a-half rounds.
My final releases and UFC predictions for this week’s UFC LV95 will be available Friday mid-day PT at GambLou.com.
Thank you for reading, and enjoy the fights this week!
