Last week the model went 1–2, but the losses came in spots that weren’t exactly shocking — a Tier 1 dog and a Tier 5 favorite, both carrying variance by definition. The process holds.
The 2026 record now sits at 51–25–4, 67.11% on the year. And a card like UFC 328 is exactly where the model gets to remind everyone what it’s built for.
Dave Ross and I broke down the card on this week’s First Strike with special guest Zayd Hussein! Give it a listen before you finalize your card.
Let’s dig in.
Grant Dawson vs Mateusz Rebecki
Grant Dawson is one of those fighters who doesn’t always get the recognition he deserves, but the numbers have never had a problem seeing him clearly.
He enters this one looking to bounce back from a TKO loss to Manuel Torres last December, which snapped a three-fight win streak. He’s still 4–2 since 2023, a solid record in a tough division. Across from him is Mateusz Rebecki, also trying to reverse course on a two-fight losing streak, most recently dropping a decision to L’udovit Klein last October. Rebecki sits at 4–3 since entering the UFC in 2023.
The physical advantages go to Dawson across the board. A six-inch reach edge at 72 inches and a three-inch height advantage at 5’10.
The xR% gap is where the picture gets clear. Dawson checks in at an impressive 82%, a number that reflects a fighter who controls the pace and wins rounds at an elite clip. Rebecki has slipped to 69% after his recent struggles, still a strong mark but meaningfully behind the man across the cage.
The striking profiles reflect two very different approaches. Dawson spends just 27% of his time at distance. He wants to close the gap immediately and get the fight where he’s most comfortable. He lands 3.18 significant strikes per minute with a +0.98 differential, absorbing very little damage in the process. Rebecki is the busier striker at 5.40 per minute, but a +0.57 differential means he’s absorbing 4.83 significant strikes per minute in those exchanges. He carries more power, four knockdowns to Dawson’s one, but Dawson has been knocked down twice himself, which likely explains why he’s become disciplined about avoiding prolonged striking wars.
The grappling is where Dawson separates himself entirely. He holds a 91% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, spends 67% of his fight time in a dominant position, and is averaging 12.17 takedown attempts per five minutes. That is suffocating, relentless pressure. He’s scored 40 takedowns at 39% accuracy, the low percentage tells you he’s not waiting for the perfect moment, he’s hunting constantly. Rebecki defends takedowns at only 50%, which against this volume of attempts is going to be a serious problem.
The model runs it through and delivers a 75.97% win probability for Grant Dawson. That’s full confidence, landing him in the Elite Favorite tier. We locked in the play at –160 earlier in the week. He finds himself at just -165 currently here in Vegas.
King Green vs Jeremy Stephens
The year is 2026. This is not an old fight preview. King Green vs Jeremy Stephens is a real fight happening on a real UFC main card this Saturday.
King Green is 39 years old and somehow riding a two-fight win streak, most recently a TKO victory over Daniel Zellhuber back in February as a +315 underdog. That one cashed nicely. His overall UFC record is a bumpy 15–12–1 (1NC), but the recent form is what matters, and lately he’s been finding ways to get the job done.
Remarkably, Green is the younger man in this fight. Jeremy Stephens walks in at 40 years old, and his recent résumé is worth acknowledging fully. His last MMA victory came in 2022 over in PFL. Since then he’s gone 1–8–1 in his last ten MMA bouts. Most recently he returned to BKFC after his last UFC loss (May 2025) and was knocked out in the fifth round by Mike Perry. The UFC has welcomed him back to get another violent night — and here we are.
The xR% tells the story cleanly. Green carries a strong 73%, a genuinely sound fighter underneath the chaos of his reputation. Stephens’ UFC xR% sits at 46%, below the danger line. I must note that we can’t account for his time and stats in PFL or BKFC.
The striking numbers reflect the gap. Green lands 6.47 significant strikes per minute with a +2.82 differential. Fantastic output at any weight class. Stephens lands only 3.15 per minute with a near-even +0.01 differential. The power is still theoretically there, Stephens is tied for second all-time in UFC knockdowns scored with 18, tied with Anderson Silva and two behind Donald Cerrone. But his last knockdown in the UFC came in 2018. The hands are older than the record suggests.
Green holds a 62% control rate on the ground with 45% takedown accuracy and two surprise submission victories on his record. Not that this fight is heading there, but the option exists.
The model delivers a confident 80% win probability for King Green, full confidence, Tier 1 favorite. The moneyline has inflated to –380, which is simply not a number we’re laying on a fight with this much chaos potential. If Stephens gets Green in a sloppy brawl, anything can happen. That’s not the play.
The props are where the value lives. Green ITD at +185, Green by KO at +240, and Under 2.5 rounds at +120 are all numbers worth considering. We’ll be watching the board closely.
Alexander Volkov vs Waldo Cortes-Acosta
The heavyweight division is wide open, and Waldo Cortes-Acosta is making the loudest possible case for his place at the top of it.
Alexander Volkov returns off a split decision victory over Jailton Almeida last October, looking to build momentum in a chaotic title picture. He’s 13–5 in the UFC and at 37 years old remains one of the more technically sound heavyweights on the roster. His UFC losses have all come against top-tier opposition — Gane twice, Aspinall, Lewis, Blaydes — which tells you he belongs in these conversations even if he hasn’t been able to close the deal against the elite.
Across from him is Salsa Boy. Waldo Cortes-Acosta has gone 10–2 in the UFC since debuting in 2022, riding a three-fight TKO win streak that most recently included stopping Derrick Lewis in January. He’s ascending, he’s finishing fights, and a win over Volkov puts his name firmly in the title shot conversation.
The size edge goes to Volkov, two inches of reach at 80 inches and a three-inch height advantage at 6’7. But the xR% flips that picture entirely. Volkov sits at 61% while Waldo shines at 74%. A meaningful gap that reflects how consistently Cortes-Acosta has been controlling and winning fights.
The striking numbers are remarkably close. Volkov lands 5.03 significant strikes per minute with a +2.01 differential. It’s clean, technical striking at heavyweight. Waldo lands 5.37 per minute with the same +2.01 differential, absorbing a touch more in the process but carrying more power. Waldo has scored six knockdowns and has never been knocked down himself, posting an impressive 74% head strike defense. Volkov has been dropped twice in the UFC.
The grappling picture isn’t a major factor, neither man attempts even one takedown per five minutes, but Waldo holds a 58% control rate compared to just 29% for Volkov, and his 73% takedown defense adds another layer of security.
Running it through the model, the output lands on the underdog. Waldo Cortes-Acosta receives a 70% win probability, a strong number that earned him a Live Dog designation at +155. His odds have dropped this morning to +125. He’s still a live dog, but that value is shrinking as the week goes on.
Khamzat Chimaev vs Sean Strickland
Before we get into the numbers, let’s take a moment to appreciate the belt these two men are fighting over.
Anderson Silva won the middleweight championship in 2006 and held it for 2,457 days — the longest single title reign in UFC history. Ten successful defenses. Nearly seven years of dominance that set a standard the division has been chasing ever since. He eventually lost it to Chris Weidman in 2013, and in the almost 13 years since, the belt has changed hands 11 times. Weidman, Rockhold, Bisping, GSP — who vacated — Whittaker, Adesanya, Pereira, back to Adesanya, Strickland, Du Plessis, and now Khamzat Chimaev. The revolving door has been spinning at full speed.
Sean Strickland gets his third crack at gold this weekend. Very few fighters have challenged for the middleweight belt more than twice, and Strickland finds himself in rare company just by being here again.
And now…Khamzat Chimaev.
He is 15–0 in his professional career and looks genuinely unbeatable right now. There are questions about his path, some matchups on the way up raised eyebrows, and he’s only been fighting about once a year lately, but what he did to Dricus Du Plessis to capture the belt last August was a masterclass in pressure grappling. 12 of 17 takedowns landed. Nearly 22 minutes of control time in a 25-minute fight. Only 37 significant strikes landed. He didn’t need to hurt Du Plessis. He suffocated him.
Strickland, meanwhile, has lost his last two title fights but won his last two non-title fights. Most recently a composed, focused +205 underdog win over Anthony Hernandez in February, a third-round TKO that looked like the Sean Strickland who shocked the world in 2023. When he’s locked in, he’s dangerous. The problem is he doesn’t always show up locked in.
The xR% tells the tale of two very different fighters. Strickland sits at a solid 70%, built on a grinding, volume-striking approach that wears opponents down over time. Chimaev sits at an elite 81%, a reflection of a fighter who dominates nearly every round he competes in, regardless of how he gets there.
The striking picture favors Strickland on paper as he lands 6.04 significant strikes per minute with a +1.48 differential and has scored seven knockdowns in the UFC. But Chimaev has never been knocked down, while Strickland has been dropped three times. Chimaev lands 4.04 per minute with a +1.72 differential, spending just 33% of his time at distance. He’s not here to box, he’s here to smother.
And then there’s the ground game. Chimaev’s 98% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges is one of the most dominant numbers in the entire sport. He will test every bit of Strickland’s 77% takedown defense. And he’ll test it early, often, and without mercy.
This fight has one central question: can Strickland keep it standing long enough to do damage? If Chimaev gets the takedown, he wins the round. If he can’t, Strickland has a real path. The model only sees it one way.
Khamzat Chimaev receives a 70% win probability, Tier 1 confidence, full model backing. His moneyline has climbed to –590, a number that is simply not playable and arguably too expensive to even include in a parlay.
Where the value exists is in the method. Chimaev ITD at around –190 is a meaningful way to shorten his price given how this fight is most likely to end if the model is right. The books are setting the line at 3.5 rounds, and with the emotional stakes and Chimaev’s pressure game, an early finish wouldn’t surprise anyone.
The model sits at 51–25–4 on the 2026 season — 67.11% on the year.
A total of 9 fights modeled this week. For the full model tale of the tape and fight reports on the rest of the UFC 328 card, check out FightingWithNumbers.com.
Follow along on X at @TheRobbeo and @drosssports.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
