The 2023-24 NBA season is in full swing and we’re tackling it hard at VSiN. As always, Jonathan Von Tobel will be providing you with his exceptional coverage of the greatest league in the world. Just click here for all of his content. However, all of my picks will be featured in this daily column, which will combine my NBA best bets and NBA player props. So, keep reading to find out how I’m playing the NBA slate on Wednesday, March 20. Also, check out our NBA Odds page for the latest line movement.
MORE: Check out our Pro Picks page for everything our experts have on March 20
2023 Record: 268-275-2 (-13.88 units)
NBA Best Bets Today – March 20
Indiana Pacers at Detroit Pistons – 7:00 pm ET
It would be nice if the Pistons had Isaiah Stewart and Ausar Thompson tonight, but both of them are listed as out. And I’d obviously like to see Simone Fontecchio (questionable) out there. But either way, it feels like Detroit is getting way too many points here. The Pistons are still going to have Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren on the court, and that’s the core of a team that has covered in eight of its last 13 games. Meanwhile, the Pacers are just 5-6 both straight-up and against the spread in their last 11 games. So, it’s not like the road team is playing all that well right now.
It’s just hard to ignore that Cade Cunningham has been playing like a star lately. And his ability to impact the game on both ends of the floor might make him the most important player on the court. When you combine that with the fact that the Pistons role players have stepped things up, it’s no longer fair to assume this team is going to get blown out — especially against non-elite competition. The Pacers have also cooled down when it comes to offensive rating, and they have also slowed things down a little in terms of pace. They’re no longer the explosive team that can shoot you off the court in a matter of minutes.
This is also a time of year when Indiana tends to overlook opponents. The Pacers are just 17-31 ATS when facing losing teams in the second half of the year over the last three seasons. And the average total score in those games has Indiana losing by 1.9 points per game. I legitimately think Indiana is in danger of losing this one.
Bet: Pistons +9.5 (-105 – 2 units) & Pistons ML (+370 – 0.5 units)
Philadelphia 76ers at Phoenix Suns – 10:00 pm ET
The Suns will likely attempt to show up on the defensive end tonight, as they were embarrassed in a loss against a Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks team on Sunday. Phoenix has now had two full days to sit on that performance, and Frank Vogel said that his team is working hard on defending the 3-point line in practice. However, it’s hard to see the Suns completely solving those issues in a matter of a couple of days. And considering Phoenix’s ability to light up the scoreboard, this total just feels way too low.
The Sixers have mostly been an Under team lately, but they haven’t faced defenses as bad as this one. Tyrese Maxey should have his way with the Suns backcourt, and that would be enough for Philadelphia to put a dent in the scoreboard. Meanwhile, the Suns have gone Over in three of their last four games. And they won’t be nervous about their ability to score against a Sixers team that is just 18th in the league in adjusted defensive rating this season.
Overall, it just feels a little odd to expect this to be a low-scoring game — even with the NBA’s scoring being down in recent weeks.
Bet: Over 220.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
NBA Player Props Today – March 20
Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers – 7:00 pm ET
I really wanted to take the Heat as a moneyline play tonight, but Bam Adebayo was downgraded to questionable. Without him, I don’t feel as confident in Miami’s chances. However, the potential of no Adebayo pushed a Jimmy Butler player prop that I already liked over the edge. I flirted with taking Butler to go Over 4.5 assists before the Adebayo news, and I’m definitely taking it now. Miami just relies so much on both players to create offense, when fully healthy. So, potentially losing Adebayo’s 25.2% usage rate means more opportunities to go elsewhere. I’d be surprised if Butler doesn’t end up with most of the play-making duties. And he is already averaging 5.5 assists per game in two meetings with Cleveland this season. And if Adebayo does go, I still think this can hit.
Bet: Butler Over 4.5 Assists (-135 – 1.5 units)
Los Angeles Clippers at Portland Trail Blazers – 10:00 pm ET
It’s a little wild to see Deandre Ayton’s rebound total at 12.5. However, I still need to play the Over with tonight’s NBA player props. Since the start of March, Ayton is averaging 15.0 rebounds per game. And he has had at least 13 rebounds in eight of his last 12 games. Chauncey Billups has found a way to get Ayton to play hard on a nightly basis. That has made the former No. 1 pick a dangerous player. Ayton will now look to continue dominating the boards against a Clippers team that is soft on the glass. Since the All-Star break, Los Angeles is just 23rd in the league in rebound rate. And the team is 25th when it comes to defensive rebound rate. So, Ayton should be able to impact this game on the offensive glass. If he does, he should go Over this mark rather easily.
Bet: Ayton Over 12.5 Rebounds (+104) & Ayton Alt Rebounds 14+ (+145 – 0.5 units)
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