EPL Best Bets and Predictions December 29-30:
Here are my EPL predictions for Sunday and Monday’s action:
Everton vs. Nottingham Forest
Sunday, 10:00 a.m. ET
The EPL games are coming thick and fast over the festive period. After a profitable column for the Boxing Day slate, we go again for MD19, which kicks off on Sunday. My best bet comes in the Everton vs. Nottingham Forest clash. In a game between managers Sean Dyche and Nuno Espírito Santo, you will not be shocked to learn the play is Under 2.5 goals.
Everton continue to grind their way to safety, picking up another hard-earned point at Manchester City. They have now only lost two of their last 13 league games, although winning just three of those means they are still in the relegation dogfight. The common feature in that run of games has been Under 2.5 goals, which has cashed in 10 of the 13.
Nottingham Forest come into this game as visitors with a different kind of pressure. They are unexpectedly up in the top four, with their fans dreaming of European qualification, possibly even Champions League, and if Liverpool were to slip up then they may even wonder if they could even win the title.
I watched Forest’s most recent win against Tottenham, and it was a game everyone expected to see plenty of goals. But it ended 1-0 after what was a cagey affair with not too many chances. This has all the makings of another close battle.
Both managers are very negative in their approach, and although Forest have won plenty, their games haven’t been overly exciting. No side in the top 12 have scored fewer than their 24 goals.
History also shows there are usually not many goals in these meetings. Seven of the last eight Premier League head-to-heads have cashed for Under 2.5 bettors.
We know 100% without a doubt what we get from Everton: tight, well organized and hard to beat. Forest are now in a mindset of taking a draw on the road, nick it if we can, and then win at home to see where it takes them.
The price is a little lower than my usual selections, but this is the standout play of the slate and has to be included.
EPL Pick: Under 2.5 goals at -150.
Manchester United vs. Newcastle
Monday, 3:00 p.m. ET
I cashed a big ticket on Wolves beating Manchester United on Boxing Day, even though the money came for United. I don’t anticipate the same thing happening here with the initial move, seeing Newcastle open at +150 but have already backed to +140. I see that trend continuing, and they may go as low as +130.
The main reason for that is the market has realized the Red Devils are a terrible side. Last time at home, they were thrashed 3-0 by Bournemouth, then went to relegation-threatened Wolves and were easily beaten 2-0.
At times like this, sides need their captain or talisman – that person is Bruno Fernandes, who was sent off at Molineux and will miss this game through suspension. The new manager has made a big call to exclude Marcus Rashford, but I think that is a bad decision, and it seems he has written off the campaign: survive it, clear the deadwood in the summer and rebuild.
In complete contrast, Newcastle are flying. Having made their worst-ever start to an EPL campaign, they are now in close proximity to the Champions League places.
The Magpies have scored at least two goals in each of their last six games across all competitions and have won their last four. They have been one of the few sides to take anything from a meeting with Liverpool in a game that ended 3-3. Last time out, they battered Aston Villa 3-0.
They now head to take on a Manchester United side who have been dreadful. Ruben Amorim has admitted he has no idea how long it will take to improve, and unlike the visitors, they can’t score goals. The home side are 14th in the table, and if their name was not Manchester United, then Newcastle would be -110 for the win. We are getting such a good price because of who they were, but Newcastle are the bet, and I think they win.
EPL Pick: Newcastle to win at +140.
Leicester City vs. Manchester City
Sunday, 9:30 a.m. ET
My final pick of 2024 is another big price selection, and yes, I am still riding the Manchester City fade train! Leicester or Tie double chance at +220.
Nothing has changed from previous columns; huge problems remain at City. Erling Haaland missed a penalty against Everton, and the emotion and stress were clear for all to see. He knew how desperate his side were to catch a break. The stats across their last 13 games sum it up: only one win and nine defeats.
Leicester went to Liverpool on Boxing Day, one of the toughest assignments there is. They did ok, went 1-0 up after six minutes, and if they had gone into the half-time break level and not 2-1 down, it could have been a different game.
The Foxes have goals in them, a league high 14 of their 18 league games have cashed Over 2.5 goals, with exactly half going over 3.5. They have only failed to score in one of their nine games on home soil, but equally, they have only kept one clean sheet.
City have not kept a clean sheet in any of their last eight league road trips, conceding at least two goals in all their last five. The traders expect goals at both ends (-175), which makes this bet a real play.
I still hear over and over in my head the conversation I had with one of the biggest gamblers in the UK: there are big problems at the Etihad, keep riding that train fading City. Since that conversation, this bet has cashed in both games Pep’s men have played. All aboard.
EPL Pick: Leicester or tie double chance at +220.
