EPL Picks and Predictions November 23-24:
Let’s take a look at this week’s EPL picks:
Aston Villa vs. Crystal Palace
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
My best bet this week focuses on a team I expect to turn around an uncharacteristically poor run of form. Aston Villa have lost four consecutive matches across all competitions, the first time Unai Emery has experienced that in over 1,000 games as a manager.
Road losses to league leaders Liverpool and Tottenham are hardly shameful and the EPL is wide open this season. Villa may be ninth in the table but are just one point off Chelsea in third, so they know how important it is to get back to winning ways.
There is a game with Juventus in the Champions League on the horizon, but that can’t distract them from the necessity of winning this match. However, the Villains could hardly wish for better opposition.
Crystal Palace have had an awful start to the season, winning just one of their 11 top-flight outings so far. On the road, they are diabolical. Despite traveling to two of the bottom five, they are winless and have only scored five goals.
There lies Oliver Glasner’s biggest problem: his side just aren’t scoring enough goals. They have failed to replace Michael Olise, and when Eberechi Eze has been out injured, there is no creativity or threat in the final third. Only rock-bottom Southampton (7) have scored fewer than their eight goals across the opening 11 fixtures.
Eze remains a big doubt for this clash as do Eddie Nketiah and star midfielder Adam Wharton, all massive misses. Palace are hopeless without Eze especially, but even if he does make a miraculous recovery, this Villa side are still by far the better side.
The stuttering form of Manchester City and Arsenal has left the door open in the EPL for a team like Aston Villa to take advantage. But that must start with a win here and Unai Emery knows it.
The traders know the huge gap in quality between these two sides. That is why Villa are a best price of -161 for the win. However, I feel we can get a free crack at the -1 Asian Handicap here, as I simply can’t see anything other than a home win. To fully cash our ticket, all we would need would be a winning margin of two or more goals, safe in the knowledge that if it is only a win by one goal, we get a full refund of our stake.
Looking at the last game Palace played before the international break, they were absolutely dreadful against Fulham and were lucky to only lose 2-0, and that was at home. Villa have been consistently the fourth-best side in England for around 18 months now and will be far too strong for the low-in-confidence visitors.
EPL Pick: Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace – Aston Villa -1 Asian Handicap at -103.
Ipswich Town vs. Manchester United
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Manchester United finally got rid of Erik ten Hag, and this will be the first game in charge for his replacement. Ruben Amorim has swapped Sporting CP for the top job at Old Trafford, and I am really excited to see what he can bring to the Premier League. I am a big fan.
He is the best there is out there at the moment, a young head coach on the up and at the peak of his powers as he proved in sweeping Manchester City aside 4-1 in the Champions League in one of his last games in Lisbon. If this doesn’t work out for the Red Devils, I really do not know where they will go.
All the pictures from the training ground show smiling faces, and it seems as if the feel-good factor has instantly returned. As a result, I expect a big performance from United, in fairness, as they have shown during the four games Ruud van Nistelrooy was in interim charge.
The phrase “new manager bounce” is often thrown around, and the expectation is that as soon as a new boss arrives, wins immediately follow. There have been 163 mid-season new manager appointments in the Premier League era, and of those, 61 won their first game with 63 losing. Of those 61, only 18 went on to record back-to-back successes suggesting the bounce doesn’t exist.
However, considering a lot of those changes were made by poor sides who were struggling at the bottom of the table, it is probably no surprise. But for those better sides who were simply underperforming the change usually instigated an immediate revival, as shown by van Nistelrooy over the last month.
In summary, I think the bounce is relevant here, we have already seen it to some extent, and we should see an extension of that with the new permanent manager in place. There is also a form line to follow here with Ipswich being the final one of the promoted clubs for the Red Devils to play.
United visited Southampton and battered them 3-0 – and that was under ten Hag. They recently played Leicester twice with van Nistelrooy in charge, winning 5-2 in the League Cup and 3-0 in the last game prior to the international break.
Not much separates Ipswich from those other two sides, and with the Manchester United players out to prove a point and also impress their new boss, I expect to see a similar outcome. Three 3-goal margins of victory so far, but we don’t have to stretch to that here.
Simply playing -1 on the Asian Handicap is enough to get very tasty plus money odds. This means a win by two or more goals cashes the ticket, a one-goal United victory, and it’s a full refund.
EPL Pick: Ipswich Town vs Manchester United – Manchester United -1 Asian Handicap at +102.
Everton vs. Brentford
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
I have to end this week’s bets with a pick in my favorite market, under 2.5 goals. One game really leaped off the page at me, and that is Everton vs. Brentford.
Everton have gone back to basics, and Sean Dyche is doing what he knows best to keep his side in the Premier League. Boring their way to safety.
Next season, they will be moving to a brand new, incredible state-of-the-art stadium—a stadium that, on current form, will likely be easier to build than fill. The old joke that a local newspaper ran an Everton competition has never been truer, with the first prize a ticket to a match; second prize was two tickets!
Back to the bet and this stands up really strong on stats. Seven of Everton’s last eight games across all competitions has cashed on Under 2.5 goals, producing a total of just 12 at an average of 1.5 per game.
Here, they face the real Jekyll and Hyde of the Premier League. Brentford have the best home record bar none, taking 16 points from a possible 18, scoring a league-high 18 goals whilst conceding 11. On the road, it is a completely different story.
The Bees have played five games, lost all five, and only scored four times. There is something about them on the road that they can’t replicate that home form. They need to stop the rot and as a result, this could be the venue they do that in what may turn out to be a very boring match.
Everton have won the last two meetings between the sides here at Goodison 1-0, and they would snatch your hand off for a third in a row. The Toffees struggle for goals and with their main creative threat Dwight McNeil carrying an injury his absence would make this bet an even stronger play, as shown with him missing from the 0-0 draw with West Ham before the international break.
EPL Pick: Everton vs Brentford – Under 2.5 goals at -104.
