EPL Bets and Predictions October 26-27:
Let’s look at this week’s EPL bets and predictions.
Arsenal vs. Liverpool
Sunday, 11:30 a.m. ET
Once again, my EPL best bet for the weekend is the biggest fixture of the weekend. After last week’s results, Arsenal and Liverpool are now tied in the betting to win the Premier League, fractionally behind the favorites, Manchester City.
That dynamic makes this clash very interesting but is one I think will be very nervy. If one of these sides loses here, they are giving up a lot of ground to their rival but even more so to City, who have all but a gimme in a home game versus relegation certainties Southampton.
Expect both managers and sets of players to give the other ultimate respect. This becomes a must-not-lose fixture.
Eight games into the season, we now know what Liverpool under Arne Slot are all about. Gone is the heavy metal, full-throttle soccer that became the trademark of the Reds under Jürgen Klopp. This is more classical music–controlled performances where if they take the lead, they professionally close those games out rather than try and win by a landslide.
This week, we saw the perfect example of that style in the Champions League when they went to a very powerful RB Leipzig side. They kept the Bundesliga outfit at arm’s length and came away from Germany with a 1-0 win.
Liverpool visits an Arsenal side that are trying to cope with an injury crisis with Martin Ødegaard out long term. Riccardo Calafiori has joined him in the treatment room for a “few weeks,” and star man Bukayo Saka is struggling to make this huge fixture. Added to that is a suspension for William Saliba, meaning the Gunners will have to make do without one of the best defenders on the planet to take on Mo Salah and Co.
Surprisingly, only two of the Gunners’ four league matches on home soil this season have seen Over 2.5 goals and those came against two newly promoted sides in Southampton and Leicester. The games against Wolves and Brighton, two pretty shaky defenses, both cashed for Unders backers.
Liverpool’s games have been evenly split, with six of their 12 in all competitions going Under 2.5 goals and six Over. However, considering that most of those games actually had a goals line set at 3.5, it is far more telling. Ten of those 12 games went under the line as set by the traders.
In keeping with my theory, there is nothing splitting the two sides, and arguably, the form team, Liverpool, would be delighted with a draw. Mikel Arteta knows he cannot afford to lose, and I’m sure that while he has those players missing, this would be a point gained rather than two lost.
There was an edge missing in the midweek 1-0 victory over Shakhtar Donetsk, a more careful and considered approach, which we should see again here. That’s because the players coming in aren’t anywhere near the standard of those who are absent.
Expect this to be low-scoring, as has been the case with a lot of the high-profile Premier League matches we have seen in recent seasons. It will come as no surprise I am taking Under 2.5 goals here. I was shocked it was priced up at plus money. That should be long gone come kickoff on Sunday, so get on it early.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal vs Liverpool – Under 2.5 goals at +106.
Brentford vs. Ipswich
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
In American football, when there is a big move for a particular team on the money line, some of the derivative markets don’t move with it, and it presents an opportunity. This looks like a prime example of the soccer equivalent to that.
Brentford have been bet all week to beat Ipswich, and at the time of writing, they are down to around -150. Some of the other markets haven’t really moved with that, and one of those is a bet I really like and am putting forward here.
The bet in question is for Brentford to be winning at half-time at +118. It has been well-documented just how fast Thomas Frank has his side starting games this season, hitting the headlines for scoring in the opening minute in four successive Premier League games.
The Bees always come out hot and are flat-track bullies when they take on sides they are expected to beat. It is as if they make it their mission to beat every team in the bottom half, and often do so. Generally, coming up short against the big boys.
At home this season, they are top of the halftime stats, winning all four games at the interval, scoring seven goals in the process and conceding just two. Ipswich, on the other hand, is bottom of the halftime stats and are the only team in the Premier League yet to be winning at the interval, having drawn three times and losing on five occasions.
This price has remained rock solid while cash pours in on the home side to win the match at plus money, I find that great value considering the make-up of the two teams. Brentford beat all three promoted sides on home soil last season and have already hosted one this term in Southampton. They went on to win that match 3-1 – and were leading 1-0 at halftime.
This looks like an excellent way to get a well-supported team onside and at plus money.
EPL Best Bet: Brentford vs. Ipswich – Halftime result – Brentford at +118.
Aston Villa vs. Bournemouth
Saturday, 10:00 a.m. ET
Aston Villa produced another superb performance in the Champions League in midweek. Brushing aside Bologna 2-0, they are now on top of the 36-team table alongside Liverpool as the only two teams to have won all of their opening three fixtures.
They will fall short in that competition and the Premier League, as they did last season when they finished fourth. Still, way above expectations.
What Unai Emery has done is remarkable. It is built on the foundations of an incredible record on home soil. Money has continued to come for them this week, and I expect that to be the case up until kickoff on Saturday.
The one concern is if they have any hangover from their match in Europe during the week. That happened last time, after an incredible win against Bayern Munich, they put in a real limp effort the following weekend when they played Manchester United.
I think that is why the traders have dangled this carrot before us. But I am taking it despite opponents Bournemouth coming into this one after their best result of the season in beating Arsenal. However, that outcome was heavily influenced by the early red card to Arsenal defender William Saliba.
The Villains are back at full strength, and it is a massive boost for them to have their captain, John McGinn, restored to the side after missing four games. He celebrated by opening the scoring in midweek, and with an hour under his belt, he will be raring to go again this weekend.
Another key player, Ollie Watkins, was given the luxury of a rest with the incredible Jhon Durán given a start. A chance he snatched with both hands by scoring the second goal, his seventh of the campaign from just 12 appearances, most of which as a substitute. As a result, Watkins will be determined to put in a good performance here to keep his understudy waiting in the wings.
Bournemouth enjoyed a rare victory over one of the big boys last weekend, but as mentioned, they were given a helping hand. Attractive on the eye, Andoni Iraola’s side are a good watch, always attacking and a bit like Brentford. They usually take care of business against the lesser lights in the division.
Last season saw them pick up just one point in 10 games against the sides that finished in the top five, and that was at home. On the road, they lost all five by an aggregate scoreline of 18-4. That included a 3-1 defeat here at Villa Park. Expect a similar outcome this weekend.
EPL Best Bet: Aston Villa vs Bournemouth – Aston Villa Money Line at -104.
