EPL Best Bets: 2024-25 League Winner Props:
Arsenal to Win Premier League +188
The new English Premier League season is on the horizon, and as always, the anticipation is reaching fever pitch. That means it is time for me to give you my EPL best bets for the upcoming season as we look to pick out our first winning tickets before the first whistle blows.
Starting with the outright winners, a market dominated by Manchester City, who have been crowned champions in six of the last seven seasons. They secured a record-breaking fourth successive title in May, but I am taking that run to end this term with several doubts surrounding the +150 favorites, and I am happy to go against them.
Pep Guardiola is in the last year of his contract, and there is talk that if the club loses its mid-season trial for 115 charges of alleged financial irregularities, he may walk. Key men such as Ederson and Kevin De Bruyne have been rumored to be tempted by money-spinning moves away.
The sale of World Cup winner Julián Álvarez both weakens the squad and puts pressure on Erling Haaland to stay fit. Rodri, who has arguably become irreplaceable in the City midfield, will have to dig deep into his fitness reserves after his Player of the Tournament winning performances for Spain in their victorious European Championship campaign.
So, after finishing as runners-up in the last two seasons, I am taking Arsenal to go one better and win the Premier League for the first time in 20 years at odds of +188.
Mikel Arteta has produced steady improvement at the Emirates since becoming manager in 2019, and his relationship with sporting director Edu has gone from strength to strength. They continue to identify and then make shrewd signings that fit their style of play. While the Gunners have made only one addition so far this summer, expect them to make some exciting moves in the transfer market before the window closes.
Progress has been built on a rock-solid defense. Yet despite conceding the fewest goals (29) and keeping the most clean sheets (18), the arrival of Italian defender Riccardo Calafiori further strengthens that department.
Two seasons ago, Arsenal spent 248 days at the top of the table and held an eight-point advantage over eventual winners Manchester City on two separate occasions (January and April). However, they completely bottled the run in throwing away two-goal leads at Liverpool and West Ham before a 4-1 hammering at the Etihad for which I was present ended their hopes. It was men against boys.
Last season saw further strides forward and crucially proved Arteta’s men had massively improved their physical and, more importantly, mental strength. Again, they went toe to toe with City, but this time, they won 16 of their last 18 league games, including all of the last six.
They could not have done anymore and only fell short by two points due to the Champions going undefeated in their final 23 league fixtures, winning the last nine. Over those last two seasons, the Gunners have won only two fewer games than their rivals, showing just how evenly matched they have become.
You must question what motivation Manchester City have ahead of this new campaign. The talk last year was about setting that record for successive title wins. This time around, maybe there are stronger drivers elsewhere. Pep himself recently said his side would “arrive late” into the season with the aim of “not dropping too many points” and to “try to compete” as his players need to rest after international duty. Mind games maybe, but not what you want to hear if you are investing in the Mancunians.
Arsenal looks hungrier to me, and as long as they can avoid any serious injuries, they can end the City cycle with or without a points deduction.
Question marks surround several of the “big” sides in England, making this season look like a two-horse title race. Therefore, the odds of -110 on Arsenal to win the title without Manchester City are too good to be ignored. Without question, it is my best bet in this year’s Premier League futures markets.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal to win the 2024/25 English Premier League at +188.
EPL Best Bet: Arsenal to win the 2024/25 English Premier League without Manchester City at -110.
Tottenham to Finish in Top Four +225
As just mentioned, the title race looks like it will be between Arsenal and Manchester City, but the battle to claim the two remaining spots in the top four looks like it could be a very tight one.
Liverpool’s season-opening game will be the first without Jürgen Klopp in charge since 2015. Former Feyenoord boss Arne Slot has been tasked with filling those gigantic shoes. Although on paper, his style of football looks like it could be a seamless transition, we will have to wait and see if that translates onto the pitch.
The Reds finished a whopping 14 points clear of fourth place last term, so they have plenty of room for even a fair amount of regression in the Dutchman’s first season in charge as he comes to terms with the Premier League. Even Pep Guardiola finished third in his first crack at the English top flight, and a similar finish is expected on Merseyside.
That leaves five clubs with realistic ambitions of claiming a top-four spot, fighting it out for the one remaining place.
Despite a strong finish under Mauricio Pochettino last term, Chelsea decided to roll the dice again and sack him, deeming sixth as not good enough. Enzo Maresca becomes the Londoners’ fifth permanent manager since Todd Boehly bought the club in May 2022. The Italian has only 67 games as a manager across spells at Parma and Leicester. For me, an improvement from last season seems unlikely.
Manchester United have kept faith with Erik ten Hag but only after sounding out Thomas Tuchel for the job. Eighth last season was a worst ever finish in the Premier League era and they were a shambles for the large part of it. Expect more of the same coming at Old Trafford in this campaign.
Aston Villa were the side that took advantage last season and claimed fourth. As a result, they compete in the elongated Champions League this term. That will likely stretch their squad a little too much for a repeat.
That leaves Newcastle and Tottenham, and I am siding with the North Londoners. Yes, that does mean Spurs will have to stop being so Spursy!
In his debut Premier League season, Ange Postecoglou quickly became a firm favorite with pretty much everyone. He also quickly endowed himself to the club’s fans by getting off to a storming start and topping the table in the early stages.
The big Aussie would have been delighted to see most of his key players have the summer off and the much-maligned Daniel Levy dip his short arms into his deep pockets to provide a couple of marquee signings. Archie Gray, an England Under-21 international at age 18 and one of the hottest prospects in the country, was signed from Leeds for around $38 million on a six-year deal. While twice that amount was outlaid to bring in Dominic Solanke from Bournemouth in the hope he can replicate the 21-goal haul he managed for the Cherries last term.
Build on the foundations of last season and Spurs will not only be entertaining but successful as well. A top-four finish is certainly in reach and at odds of +225 look the value pick.
EPL Best Bet: Tottenham top four finish at +225.
West Ham to Finish in the Top Half -110
West Ham’s odds for a top-half finish have been trimmed a little but still offer fantastic value, in my opinion, having first appeared on my radar when they replaced David Moyes with Julen Lopetegui. The ex-Real Madrid and Spanish national team manager has Premier League experience with Wolves where he did an excellent job.
Most people would agree that it is regarded as a managerial upgrade, but this price would still appeal even with the Scot in charge. He led the Hammers to a top-half finish in three of his last four seasons at the club, so anything other than a top-ten finish under the new regime would be regarded as an embarrassment.
Lopetegui has been backed in the transfer market with first arrival Max Kilman for $50m designed to help improve a defense that leaked 74 goals last term. Only the three relegated clubs conceded more.
At the other end Crysencio Summerville joins after being voted best player in the Championship last season but the real coup was the signing of Niclas Füllkrug. The striker caught the eye with his displays in both the Champions League for Dortmund and at Euro 2024 with Germany and is sure to become a fan favourite at the London Stadium.
Having kept all their key men so far and with no European commitments this term, West Ham can fully focus on pushing for a top-seven finish. They have the support, the squad, and the manager to achieve that goal, but certainly enough to finish in the top half.
EPL Best Bet: West Ham top half finish at -110.
