Netherlands vs. Sweden | 2026 FIFA World Cup Group F | Saturday, June 20 | 1PM EST | NRG Stadium | Houston
Netherlands (-140) | Draw (+295) | Sweden (+380)
Over 2.5 Goals (-115) | Under 2.5 Goals (-105)
Netherlands -0.5 (-145) | Sweden +0.5 (+115)
Group F resumes in Houston on Saturday with the Netherlands and Sweden separated by opening-night results that couldn’t have gone more differently.
The Netherlands arrive in search of a first win after letting a winning position slip twice in their Dallas opener against Japan. Virgil van Dijk headed Ronald Koeman’s side in front shortly after the break and Crysencio Summerville restored the lead on 64 minutes, curling the ball past Suzuki and in off the post, but defensive lapses prevented Oranje from seeing the job through. Keito Nakamura’s low strike had cancelled out the opener, and with a minute left a corner flicked off Daichi Kamada to beat Bart Verbruggen and rescue a point for the Samurai Blue.
Sweden, by contrast, arrive flying high after a ruthless 5-1 dismantling of Tunisia. Yasin Ayari opened with a thumping drive inside seven minutes and Alexander Isak doubled the lead on the half-hour. Omar Rekik’s header gave Tunisia brief hope, but the second half was all Sweden: Gyökeres pounced after Isak picked Skhiri’s pocket, Mattias Svanberg struck off the bench and Ayari completed his brace deep in stoppage time to send Graham Potter’s men to the top of Group F.
A second slip would leave question marks over the Netherlands’ ability to go deep in this competition, while Sweden know victory will book their spot in the last 32.
NETHERLANDS TEAM NEWS
The Netherlands were dealt a blow before the tournament with Arsenal’s Jurrien Timber ruled out with a groin injury, leaving Koeman to call up Sunderland defender Lutsharel Geertruida in his place.
Koeman has no reported injury concerns heading into Saturday and is expected to name an unchanged side from the one that started against Japan — though the Oranje will need a sharper showing if they’re to get anything from this one.
Netherlands Predicted Lineup 4-3-3
Manager: Ronald Koeman
GK: B. Verbruggen
RB: D. Dumfries | CB: J. P. van Hecke | CB: V. van Dijk | LB: M. van de Ven
CM: R. Gravenberch | CM: F. de Jong | CM: T. Reijnders
RWF: C. Summerville | CF: D. Malen | LWF: C. Gakpo
SWEDEN TEAM NEWS
Sweden have been handed a boost, with Gabriel Gudmundsson’s injury not as bad as first feared. The Leeds United left-back pulled up in the 65th minute against Tunisia clutching his hamstring, but Graham Potter eased those fears after the game, saying it was cramp. With this being only his second appearance since late April due to a hamstring injury we might see him start this one from the bench out of caution. If that happens, we’ll see Elliot Stroud handed a start in his place.
Beyond Gudmundsson, Potter has no other injury concerns and has his full squad to select from. After a 5-1 opening win, there’s no reason to adjust — expect the same starting lineup we saw against Tunisia.
Sweden Predicted Lineup 3-1-4-2
Manager: Graham Potter
GK: K. Nordfeldt
CB: I. Hien | CB: V. Lindelöf (C) | CB: G. Lagerbielke
DMF: J. Karlström
RWB: A. Bernhardsson | CM: B. Nygren | CM: Y. Ayari | LWB: G. Gudmundsson
CF: A. Isak | CF: V. Gyökeres
MATCH BREAKDOWN
Graham Potter’s 3-1-4-2 formation is the most intriguing one we’ve seen at this tournament. I’m interested to see if Potter – who got it so right at Brighton but so wrong at Chelsea and West Ham – has found the blueprint for playing Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyökeres together. Rarely do we see a team play with two strikers these days and it’ll be fascinating to see how this formation holds up against the Netherlands.
Koeman has his own tactical questions to answer. Switching to a back five in the closing minutes against Japan invited pressure and handed the Samurai Blue the initiative. That decision looks worse when you have van de Ven operating at left-back — he’s a mistake waiting to happen, a player whose pace bails him out and is frankly the one asset he possesses that allows him to play at this level. Losing his man for Japan’s late equalizer is a cause for concern for all Dutch fans.
Van Dijk compounds it: the Liverpool captain has struggled this season with uncharacteristic errors, positional lapses and a drop in key defensive metrics like interceptions and recoveries leading to Liverpool conceding 53 goals – the most ever for them in a 38-game Premier League season. These two are now part of a back four tasked with keeping out two of the Premier League’s best in Isak and Gyökeres — and on current form, that’s a mismatch that points to goals.
THE BET
Both Teams to Score YES has landed in 17 of the tournament’s opening 24 games, and this one absolutely stinks of it. Sweden’s defensive record coming into this tournament was highly questionable, and allowing Tunisia to score did nothing to dispel those concerns. It’s now seven games in a row they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet. If the Netherlands can get Cody Gakpo and Crysencio Summerville behind Sweden’s wing-backs and run at the back three I’m confident we’ll see that run extend to eight games.
Going the other way, Isak and Gyökeres arrive full of confidence after both got on the scoresheet against Tunisia. They’ll fancy their chances against a Dutch backline still shook from surrendering the lead twice against Japan.
The safe play is Both Teams to Score at -125. I always try to play for even money or better and there’s a solid case for adding Over 2.5 Goals to boost us to +126.
Pick: Same Game Parlay Both Teams to Score YES and Over 2.5 Goals +126
