Last week’s UFC Freedom 250 was a night nobody will forget. The model went 4–2 on the card.
The 2026 record now sits at 71–39–6, just under 65% on the year. This week brings us back to a much smaller, much quieter card. UFC Vegas 119 at the APEX, headlined by a genuine title eliminator between two of the division’s most dangerous flyweights.
Dave Ross and I broke down the card on this week’s First Strike. Available everywhere you get your podcasts and on YouTube.
Let’s dig in.
Karol Rosa vs Luana Santos
Karol Rosa enters this fight 3–3 since 2023, most recently a decision victory over Nora Cornolle in August. After opening her UFC career with a four-fight win streak, she’s alternated wins and losses ever since. Across from her is Luana Santos, riding a two-fight win streak. Most recently a decision over Melissa Corden in December and sitting at an impressive 5–1 in the UFC since 2023.
Both women carry strong xR% marks. Rosa sits at 69%, Santos right behind at 60%. Rosa has gone the distance in every single one of her UFC fights, 12 straight decisions. Santos has shown more finishing range with three career stoppages, and her only UFC loss came by decision.
The strength of schedule edge goes to Rosa, who has faced a slightly tougher group over time and brings real experience into the cage.
The striking output favors Rosa. She lands 5.88 significant strikes per minute with a +1.29 differential, absorbing 4.59 along the way. Santos is cleaner but considerably lower volume, 2.99 per minute with a thin +0.06 differential, absorbing just 2.93. She doesn’t carry much power, and a pure striking battle isn’t her preferred path. She spends only 44% of her time at distance, signaling she’d rather work in close.
That’s where Santos tries to make her case. She holds an 87% control rate in clinch and ground exchanges, though her takedown numbers are modest. Nine attempts at 47% accuracy. Rosa counters with a 66% control rate of her own and a 70% takedown defense, giving her a real say in where this fight could take place even if Santos wants to dictate the terms.
The model runs it through and lands on Rosa, but without much conviction. She receives the Tier 5 favorite label, and even with last week’s Gane result reminding us that Tier 5 plays can hit, that category is still only performing at 56% on the year. Rosa is the prediction. At –130 she looks like an easy bet on paper. But the model’s own warning system keeps us off this one.
No play here. Rosa is the lean, not the bet.
Allan Nascimento vs Mitch Raposo
This is the cleanest spot on the card, and it doesn’t need much dressing up.
Allan Nascimento is riding a four-fight win streak, most recently a second-round submission over Codey Durden in November. He’s 4–1 in the promotion since debuting in 2021. Mitch Raposo is only three fights into his UFC career and finally picked up his first UFC win last October, a decision over Azat Maksum, putting him at 1–2 in the promotion. This is his model debut.
There’s a seven-year age gap — Nascimento at 34, Raposo at 27 — and Nascimento holds a five-inch reach advantage at 69 inches.
The concerning number belongs to Raposo. While Nascimento’s 57% xR% isn’t overly impressive on its own, Raposo sits at 36%, a red flag mark that suggests his two UFC losses, both split decisions, may not have been nearly as close as the judges saw it.
Nascimento’s calling card is the finish. He has two submission wins in five UFC fights, and 16 of his 22 professional victories have come by submission. That kind of finishing rate at this stage of a career is significant.
The striking is low-output for both men. Nascimento spends just 26% of his time at distance, landing 2.02 significant strikes per minute with a +0.25 differential, absorbing only 1.77 per minute. He’s not getting hit much, and he’s not trying to win this fight with volume. Raposo spends 76% of his time at distance but lands even less, 1.58 per minute with a –0.98 differential, absorbing 2.56. Neither man has scored a knockdown or been dropped in the UFC, which tells you this fight is heading to the mat one way or another.
That’s where the separation becomes clear. Nascimento holds 35% of his fight time in a control position compared to just 12% for Raposo. Total takedown volume is light for both, 12 combined attempts at around 30% accuracy. But Nascimento’s 40% takedown defense isn’t really the concern given how aggressively he uses the ground offensively. Raposo’s 65% takedown defense sets up what could be a genuine grappling chess match, but the data favors Nascimento finding his openings.
The model sees clear advantages for Nascimento in xR% and finishing ability, and the market agrees. He’s currently priced around -190. It’s not always a number worth laying straight, but on a light card like this one, sometimes keeping things simple is exactly the right move.
I looked at the method props too, his submission prop sits at +180, decision at +170, but even the books aren’t confident in how this one ends.
Allan Nascimento goes on the slip at –190.
Manel Kape vs Kyoji Horiguchi
This main event carries real weight in the flyweight division. Josh Van sits atop the mountain with a target on his back, and multiple contenders are circling for the next shot. Saturday removes one of them from that equation and it should be a genuine banger.
Manel Kape enters on a three-fight TKO win streak, having knocked out Bruno Silva, Asu Almabayev, and Brandon Royval in succession. Since 2023 he’s 4–1, with his only loss coming against Muhammad Mokaev. The power and the finishing instincts are undeniable right now.
Across from him is Kyoji Horiguchi, the Karate Kid, one of the more underrated and entertaining fighters to return to the UFC in recent memory. His sole loss in his first UFC stint was to Demetrious Johnson, a legitimate GOAT, and even after recovering with a three-fight win streak he left the promotion to compete elsewhere. From 2017 to 2024 he went 16–3–1 across RIZIN and Bellator before returning to the UFC in 2025. He’s now on a two-fight win streak since coming back, most recently a decision over Amir Albazi in February, and he’s looked every bit as sharp as people remember.
Kape holds a five-inch reach advantage at 68 inches. The xR% numbers are identical at 68% for both men, setting up a genuinely even fight on paper.
*Worth noting that Horiguchi’s data is based solely on his 10 UFC fights, so the RIZIN and Bellator run isn’t factored in.
Both men can finish fights. Kape has five UFC knockouts and the power to back it up. Horiguchi has three UFC finishes, but across his entire career he carries 15 KO/TKOs and six submissions. A deep finishing résumé built over a long, accomplished career.
The striking numbers favor Horiguchi’s efficiency even though Kape produces more volume. Kape lands 5.04 significant strikes per minute with a +0.96 differential and seven knockdowns scored, never having been dropped himself. Horiguchi lands less at 3.77 per minute but with a +1.64 differential, absorbing only 2.13 significant strikes per minute. Six knockdowns scored for him as well, and he too has never been knocked down in the UFC. That differential is exactly how you survive against a fighter with Kape’s power. Stay efficient, stay defensively sound, and don’t give him the volume of exchanges he wants.
The grappling tilts slightly toward Horiguchi. He holds a 52% control rate compared to Kape’s 30%, and has scored 15 takedowns at 41% accuracy in the UFC. Kape’s offense lives almost entirely in the striking with only three career takedowns, but his 81% takedown defense means Horiguchi will have to work hard if he wants to find success on the mat.
I genuinely thought there might be a live dog angle here given how even the numbers look. Instead, the model lands on Manel Kape at –160. I’ve been impressed with Horiguchi’s return, and he looks every bit as sharp as his prime, but the model doesn’t think this is quite his moment.
Before you jump on Kape, though, he falls into Tier 5 territory. Even at –160, the model flags real danger in backing him straight. That’s the same warning system that kept us off Rosa earlier in this card, and it applies here too.
Worth noting that these two faced off in RIZIN back in 2017. Horiguchi delivered Kape only his second ever submission loss of his career. And during Horiguchi’s time away from the UFC, he suffered a few finishes himself.
Where this fight gets interesting is the total. Both men are tough, durable, and slick enough to avoid disaster, the kind of profile that often produces a longer fight than the finishing résumés might suggest. The total is set at over 4.5 rounds at –130, meaning the under 4.5 currently sits around +100. These two have the technical chops to find a finish, and at plus money, that number is worth a look heading into fight night.
*Check out FightingWithNumbers.com for the full model tale of the tapes, grades, and reports on the fights this weekend.
Good luck Saturday. Enjoy the violence.
