In a meeting between two very close friends, Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa will fight for a spot in the 2025 Australian Open final. Sabalenka has won this event two years in a row, and she’s going to be very comfortable at Rod Laver Arena. But Sabalenka hasn’t played her very best tennis over the last few weeks, and it feels like Badosa is in peak form. So, this should be a very good match, making it a fun one to handicap. With that in mind, keep reading for our Badosa vs. Sabalenka analysis, predictions and best bets.
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Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. Accurate as of Tuesday, January 21st at 7:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Sabalenka -380, Badosa +300
Spread: Sabalenka -4.5 Games (-110), Badosa +4.5 Games (-110)
Total: Over 21.5 Games (-105), Under 21.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Where: Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia
When: Thursday, January 23rd (Australian Eastern Daylight Time)
Channel: ESPN/ESPN+
Paula Badosa vs. Aryna Sabalenka Predictions
Sabalenka has beaten up on Badosa, one of her close friends, throughout their head-to-head history. She’s 5-2 against Badosa at the WTA level, and she hasn’t lost to her since 2021. However, Badosa did have to retire from a very close match in Stuttgart last year. And the Spaniard is arguably playing some of the best tennis of her career right now. The same can’t be said for the version of Sabalenka we’ve seen in the last few rounds.
Badosa is fresh off a straight-set win over Coco Gauff, who has been the hottest player in tennis over the last couple of months. She has now lost just one set on her way to the semis, and she has come up with her best stuff in her last few matches. Meanwhile, Sabalenka barely beat Clara Tauson, played some shaky tennis in the second set of her lopsided win over Mirra Andreeva and then let Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova win a set in the quarterfinals. Sabalenka has had some moments in which she has flashed her brilliance, and her power and ability to serve still allows her to beat up on most of the WTA Tour even when she’s struggling. But Badosa is scorching hot right now, and she’s looking like a player that could flirt with a top-five ranking at some point in the near future.
If Badosa just continues to play the way she has been playing, she should have a real shot at making this a tough match. Badosa is playing good defense, she’s clobbering the ball from the baseline and she’s serving well. The Spaniard has also been good in pressure moments, which is something that has given her trouble lately — including during a collapse against Emma Navarro at the US Open. And overall, staying solid and playing a clean all-around match will go a long way in making Sabalenka uncomfortable. The Belarusian is going to hit her fair share of winners, but she’s also going to mix in some bad service games and some sloppy play from the baseline. That said, Badosa just has to stay mentally engaged and capitalize when she has her moments.
Sabalenka is rightfully favored to win this match outright. But given what we’ve seen from these two Down Under, it’s hard not to see plus-money odds on Badosa to win a set as a strong value play. This is also a match in which Sabalenka will be under all the pressure in the world, as she had a favorable draw and is looking for her third straight Australian Open title. But Badosa wasn’t supposed to be here, so she should be loose and play care-free tennis. That’s what Pavlyuchenkova did, allowing her to put a scare in Sabalenka. And Badosa is much, much better than Pavlyuchenkova.
Bet: Badosa +1.5 Sets (+110 – 1.5 units)
