On Sunday, March 16th, Jack Draper and Holger Rune will clash in the BNP Paribas Open finals in Indian Wells. This tournament, played in “Tennis Paradise,” is viewed as the unofficial fifth slam, so the stakes are going to be high when these two take the court. Having said that, keep reading for a little breakdown on how this one might play out.
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Jack Draper vs. Holger Rune Odds
Odds accurate as of Saturday, March 15th at 1:00 pm ET. Shop around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Draper -163, Rune +130
Spread: Draper -2.5 (-111), Rune +2.5 (-115)
Total: Over 22.5 Games (-110), Under 22.5 Games (-115)
How To Watch Jack Draper vs. Holger Rune
Where: Indian Wells Tennis Garden in Indian Wells, California
When: Sunday, March 16th
Channel: Tennis Channel / Tennis Channel App
Jack Draper vs. Holger Rune Predictions
A Holger Rune versus Jack Draper final at the BNP Paribas Open probably feels a little surprising, especially given Carlos Alcaraz’s recent dominance at this event. But Draper’s 6-1, 0-6, 6-4 victory over Alcaraz and Rune’s 7-5, 6-4 win against Daniil Medvedev set up this intriguing matchup between two promising young talents. And I’m leaning towards Rune at plus-money odds. While this is close to a 50-50 matchup, getting +140 odds on what’s essentially a coin flip is appealing. If I were setting the line, I think I’d have Rune as a slight -120 favorite.
Draper’s win over Alcaraz just might have been his career-best performance, which could lead to a potential letdown. Draper has also had some trouble closing out big matches in his career. But Rune, having already won a 1000-level title, knows what it takes to close out such tournaments. It’s also worth noting that Alcaraz’s poor performance aided Draper’s victory. Alcaraz struggled with accuracy early on and made costly errors late. Rune, while erratic himself, is less likely to make similar mistakes.
Rune has shown improved tactical play this season, as evidenced by his matches against Matteo Berrettini at the Australian Open and then Medvedev in these semifinals. His ability to adapt and target opponents’ weaknesses could give him an edge over Draper. Rune also appears to be maturing mentally, and he even credited his improved mental approach for his win over Medvedev when being interviewed on the court after the match.
Rune also defeated Draper in straight sets in Cincinnati last year, and that match was played in faster conditions. The slower courts in Indian Wells should theoretically benefit Rune’s return game and baseline defense.
While both players are evenly matched, the odds make Rune an attractive choice in this final. And I genuinely can’t wait to watch it. I have mentioned to a few co-workers and friends that Jannik Sinner and Alcaraz might make up a modern-day version of the Big Three (Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic). But don’t be surprised if Draper and Rune end up being this generation’s Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka. I see majors in both of their futures.
Bet: Rune ML (+139 – 1.5 units)
