The 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia (also known at the Italian Open) is nearing a conclusion at the Foro Italico in Rome. We’ve broken down the day’s best tennis betting picks, digging into matchup tactics, surface tendencies, and current form to find the sharpest edges on the board. Whether you’re betting the moneyline, game spread, set spread, or total, our 2026 Internazionali BNL d’Italia best bets are built to help you profit. I’m dropping some of my favorite plays for Friday, May 15 below, but make sure you also monitor the picks page throughout the day. I generally have a few more picks over there, plus I occasionally add plays based on how lines are moving. That’s also where Gill Alexander posts his best bets.
Luciano Darderi vs. Casper Ruud
Darderi is coming off a fantastic win over Rafael Jodar, but this could be a rough match for the Italian. Outside of having home-court advantage, it’s just hard to see where Darderi will have edges over Ruud. Darderi does have a very big forehand, but Ruud has one of the best forehands on tour — especially on clay, where his heavy topspin is a major factor. Ruud is also better when it comes to both serving and returning. Plenty of numbers back all of that up. However, here’s a straightforward one: TennisViz has a Performance Rating of 8.29 for Ruud on clay this season, while Darderi’s Performance Rating is 7.54. Ruud’s number is good for fifth in the world, while Darderi is down at 25th.
Darderi could also be exhausted when he gets out there. Sure, the adrenaline of playing at home could help Darderi find some energy, but the Italian’s last three matches have all been very physical. At some point, he could run into some problems because of that, and Ruud is a player that will work him. When Ruud is feeling it, he can really move opponents around with his forehand. Well, it certainly seems like he’s feeling it lately.
Bet: Ruud -1.5 Sets (-110)
